New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Global Stocks Down after Trump/Xi Meeting Scrapped

February 8, 2019

The revelation that President Trump will not be meeting with Chinese President Xi before March 1 dampened hopes for a trade deal, weighed on general concerns regarding global growth, and sent share prices down 2.0% in Japan, 1.2% in South Korea and India, 1.0% in Spain, and 0.9% in Germany. The Dow and S&P fell […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Aussie Dollar Down More than 1% Overnight

February 6, 2019

An overnight speech by Bank of Governor Lowe, not Donald Trump’s delayed State of the Union address, stole the currency market spotlight today. Forward guidance from the Reserve Bank of Australia had for some time pointed to an eventual interest rate increase, but Lowe said that in line with shifting economic data and changing global […] More

Deeper Analysis

February 5, 2019

Service sector growth slowed last month but remained positive in both the United States and the euro area. The ISM-compiled non-manufacturing PMI fell 1.3 points, while the IHS-compiled Ezone services PMI dropped by 1.0 point. The differential between those two data series narrowed slightly but remained significantly U.S.-advantageous at +6.6 points. The U.S. advantage in […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

More Evidence of Weakening Growth in Europe and Trepidation Ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union Address Tonight

February 5, 2019

The conclusion of Euroland’s service-sector and composite purchasing manager surveys tells it all: The business environment is at its most challenging since the height of the region’s debt crisis.” The composite Ezone PMI reading of 51.0 was at a 66-month low, and service sector activity (51.2) was near its 4-year low. From a separate report […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Firms a Bit

February 4, 2019

Several markets including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore are shut for the Lunar New Year holiday. Half the U.S. government shutdown reprieve has been spent, and still there is no agreement. U.S./Chinese trade talks are another continuing source of uncertainty. The dollar is 0.2-0.4% firmer against the euro, Swiss franc, loonie, Aussie […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

February 1, 2019

Central Banks: Central banks in Australia, India, Mexico, Thailand, Iceland, Serbia, The Philippines, U.K., Brazil, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Peru, and Russia have scheduled monetary policy reviews next week. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement and the Bank of England’s quarterly Inflation Report will be published. RBA Governor Lowe and Bank […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S. Manufacturing Edge Versus Euro Area Increased Last Month

February 1, 2019

The ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index rose 2.3 index points in January, while IHS-compiled counterpart fell 0.9 points. Consequently, the differential between these two data series, which had narrowed from 7.0 points in November to 2.9 index points in December, ballooned back to 6.1 points in January. This strong U.S. advantage exists in spite […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Manufacturing PMIs Convey Global Slowdown for the Most Part

February 1, 2019

Shortly ahead of the release of January U.S. labor market statistics, the dollar is mostly marking time, with no net change against the yen or loonie, downticks of 0.2% against the euro and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc and kiwi, and upticks of 0.6% relative to the yuan, 0.4% vis-a-vis sterling, 0.2% against the Aussie […] More

Deeper Analysis

January 2019 in Figures

January 31, 2019

Equities rebounded sharply in January from their December slump, and the price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) soared 18.2%. There were no central bank policy rate changes among the major economies surveyed in this monthly feature, but the Federal Reserve signaled a shift from rate normalization to one of patience with no more increases […] More

Central Bank Watch

Central Bank of Chile Lifts Policy Rate

January 31, 2019

The Central Bank of Chile engineered a second 25-basis point in its monetary policy rate to 3.0%. The initial rate hike of similar size had been done in October. The rate’s last cyclical low of 2.5% had prevailed from May 2017 through October 2018. Chilean CPI inflation now of 2.6% is a half percentage point […] More

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