Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Thoughts on How the Dollar Might Perform in 2020

January 13, 2020

Lessening Dollar Volatility: Closing quarterly quotes for the euro against the U.S. currency last year painted a tight shot group of $1.1217 in 1Q, $1.1373 at midyear, $1.0900 in the third quarter and $1.1219 at yearend. If one substitutes dollar/mark for EUR/USD for years prior to 1999, the 4.3% spread between the most disparate of […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

British and Chinese Currencies Weaken at Start of a New Week

January 13, 2020

Sterling fell 0.6% against the dollar overnight. British industrial production, down 1.2%, posted the largest monthly decline in seven months during November and was 1.6% lower than a year earlier. Factory output dropped 1.7% on month and 2.0% on year. November’s monthly measure of U.K. GDP showed a 0.3% decline and the smallest 12-month rate […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: January 11 – 17th

January 10, 2020

Central Banks: Turkey, South Africa and South Korea are holding scheduled monetary policy reviews. Bank of Japan Branch managers hold a quarterly meeting and will release a report on regional economic conditions. The Federal Reserve’s regional study known as the Beige Book gets published. Minutes from the last European Central Bank Governing Council meeting will […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Many Industrial Production Reports as Well as U.S. Jobs Day

January 10, 2020

Markets marked time ahead of the U.S. December labor market statistics. The dollar didn’t react much afterward, either. As of 08:10 EST, the dollar was up 0.2% against the Swiss franc and 0.1% relative to the euro and yen. The greenback was unchanged vis-a-vis the loonie and kiwi but down by 0.3% against the peso […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Many Data Releases… Stock Prices Up

January 9, 2020

A mixed dollar overnight leaves the U.S. currency unchanged against the euro, up 0.5% versus the kiwi, 0.4% relative to sterling, 0.3% vis-a-vis the yen, 0.2% against the loonie and 0.1% versus the Aussie dollar but down 0.2% against the yuan and peso and 0.1% softer versus the Swiss franc. Share prices advanced 2.3% in […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Firms Modestly; Equity Markets are Mixed

January 8, 2020

The dollar recorded overnight gains of 0.3% against the euro, 0.2% versus the yen and sterling, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the loonie. The dollar remains unchanged relative to the yuan, Swiss franc and kiwi. ADP estimates that U.S. private-sector employment increased last month by a robust 202k, beating November’s result and exceeding analyst expectations. There was […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Yuan Strengthens and Iran Financial Market Impact Lessens

January 7, 2020

The Chinese yuan is up 0.5% against the dollar, its biggest daily advance in just over a half year. A Phase I Sino-U.S. deal is expected to be signed soon. The approaching Lunar New Year holiday is driving demand for cash in China. More than 30 people died and many more were injured in a […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Financial Markets Dominated by U.S.-Iran Concerns

January 6, 2020

Commodity price rises were extended Monday. WTI oil climbed 1.1%, while Comex gold is only $25 south of the $1,600 per ounce level. Share prices fell 1.9% in Japan and India, 1.3% in Taiwan, 1.0% in South Korea, and 0.8% in Hong Kong. In European trading, stocks are down 1.4% in Germany, 1.0% in Italy […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: January 4-10, 2020

January 4, 2020

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Poland, Romania, Israel, Peru and Serbia. ECB top economist Lane speaks publicly as do Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins of the Bank of Canada. Fed Vice Chair Clarida, St. Louis Fed President Bollard, and NY Fed President Williams also have public speaking engagements. Purchasing Manager Surveys to […] More

Deeper Analysis

Closest Convergence of U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing Sectors Since January 2018

January 3, 2020

In the ISM report, a 5.9-point drop in production resulted in the weakest U.S. PMI reading (47.2) since June 2009. The components for orders of 46.8 and jobs of 45.1 were 0.4 and 1.5 points below their November results. The IHS survey of U.S. manufacturing also resulted in a lower PMI reading last month than […] More

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