New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Service Sector PMIs Out but Many U.S. Cancellations

December 5, 2018

U.S. Treasury market and stock markets are closed for a federal holiday mourning the death of former U.S. President  George H.W. Bush. Fed Chairman Powell’s scheduled testimony before the Joint Economic Committee in Congress was scrapped with no announced make-up date yet set, but the Beige Book analysis of regional conditions will be released at […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

A Cup Half-Empty View of the Dollar’s Outlook

December 4, 2018

My blog entry three weeks ago presented a mostly upbeat short- to medium-term view of the dollar’s outlook, although downside risks especially further out in time were cited, too. In the role of Devil’s Advocate, this follow-up piece has a more bearish hue, taking into account some shifting developments. U.S. President Trump’s bobbing and weaving […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Markets Jittery Again over Uncertainties Related to Trade Tensions and British Brexit

December 4, 2018

Share prices fell  539 points  or 2.4% in Japan, 1.0% in Australia, 0.8% in South Korea, 0.7% in Singapore and 0.5% in Taiwan. European markets have lost 1.4% in the U.K., 1.0% in Germany, 1.2% in Spain, 0.9% in Italy and 0.7% in France. In the U.S., the DOW and S&P 500 each lost 0.6% […] More

Deeper Analysis

Spread Between U.S. and Ezone Manufacturing PMIs at a 4-Year High

December 3, 2018

The point differential between the ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing PMI and the IHS-compiled Euroland manufacturing purchasing managers index widened 1.8 points in November to 7.5, its greatest width since a similar spread in November 2014. This more sizable U.S. advantage happened in spite of a pricier dollar. With a large export-derived base, manufacturing prosperity tends to ebb […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Equities Rally Globally as Threatened Trade War Escalation Delayed by 3 Months

December 3, 2018

Stock markets rose 2.6% in China, 2.5% in Taiwan, 2.3% in Hong Kong, 2.3% in Singapore, 1.8% in Australia, 1.7% in South Korea, 1.5% in Japan, and 1.0% in Indonesia. European share prices so far today have climbed 1.9% in Germany, 2.2% in Italy, 4.7% in Greece, 1.4% in the U.K., 1.3% in Spain, and […] More

Deeper Analysis

November in Figures

November 30, 2018

Share prices were highly volatile in November, closing higher in the U.S., Japan and Canada but lower in Great Britain and the euro area. Ten-year sovereign debt yields declined in all the economies examined in this monthly feature. None of the central bank rates among these economies changed key interest rates. Among developing economies, however, […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Korea Hikes Base Rate to 1.75%

November 30, 2018

The Bank of Korea‘s benchmark interest rate has been raised by 25 basis points to 1.75%. This was the second such  increase of the cycle following an initial tightening in November 2017, which had been the first hike since 2011. In between, there were five 25-basis point cuts from March 2014 to June 2016. A […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Investors Watching G20 Summit and Examining Today’s Load of Data

November 30, 2018

The dollar rose 0.7% against the euro overnight but just 0.1% relative to the yen and sterling. Stocks dropped 1.6% in Australia and 0.8% in Indonesia and South Korea but climbed 0.8% in China, 0.5% in Hong Kong and 0.4% in Japan. Share prices in Europe are down 1.0% in the U.K. and 0.3% in […] More

Central Bank Watch

Comments on the FOMC Minutes from November 7-8

November 29, 2018

FOMC minutes released today suggest a lesser shift in Fed policy intentions that markets perhaps assumed after yesterday’s speech by Chairman Powell. His remark regarding the federal funds rate perhaps now only being slightly lower than rate neutrality is ascribed in these minutes to just a few committee participants. A few participants, while viewing further […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Mixed U.S. Data, Lots of Other Data, and Ever-present Worries about The Mueller Investigation and U.S.-Sino Trade Strains

November 29, 2018

U.S. personal income rose 0.5% last month, a 7-month high. Personal consumption expenditures went up even more robustly, 0.6%, and the core PCE price deflator measure of U.S. inflation settled back 0.1 percentage point to 1.8%. On the other hand, U.S. pending home sales sank 2.6% to a near four-year low and recorded an on-year […] More

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