New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Declines in Kiwi, Ruble and Turkish Lira

August 9, 2018

The dollar advanced overnight by 1.6% against the New Zealand dollar, 0.9% versus the Russian ruble, and some 2.5% vis-a-vis the Turkish lira. Not only did the latest review of New Zealand monetary policy end with leaving the Official Cash Rate at 1.75%, half its level prior to the June 2015 first of 7 reductions, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Sterling Continues to Stumble on Hard Brexit Fears

August 8, 2018

Sterling hit new 2018 lows of EUR 0.9019 and $1.2859. The dollar is 0.6% stronger against the pound than its Tuesday closing level. The dollar is also up 0.3% versus the loonie, down 0.3% relative to the yen, and barely changed against the euro, Swiss franc, Aussie dollar or kiwi. Asian stocks were mixed Wednesday, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Softer Dollar but Higher Share Prices

August 7, 2018

The dollar softened overnight by 0.6% against the Aussie dollar, 0.4% relative to the yuan and euro, 0.3% vis-a-vis the peso, loonie and kiwi, 0.2% versus the yen and Swiss franc, and 0.1% against sterling. Share prices climbed 2.7% in China, 2.0% in Hong Kong, 0.7% in Japan, and 0.6% in South Korea. Equities in […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Spotlight on Sterling

August 6, 2018

As a former hegemonic reserve currency with enormous residual offshore holdings, sterling is intrinsically susceptible to being shoved around disproportionately whenever favorable or unfavorable fundamental economic shifts arise. From $2.80 prior to the November 1967 devaluation, the pound slid to a low of $1.55 less than a decade later in October 1976 and touched an […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Sterling Slide Extended

August 6, 2018

The pound ended last week on a weak note after Bank of England Governor Carney flagged “an uncomfortably high” risk that Britain leaves the EU without any negotiated deal. That message was reinforced over the weekend by Trade Minister Fox’s perception of 60-40 odds in favor of no deal, and sterling slipped a bit below […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

August 3, 2018

Central Banks: Central banks hold monetary policy reviews in Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, The Philippines, Peru, Romania and Serbia. Australia’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement and minutes from the Bank of Japan Board meeting to be published. Barkin of the Fed speaks publicly, as will Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe. Holidays: August Civic holiday in […] More

Deeper Analysis

Narrower U.S. Non-Manufacturing Advantage Last Month Versus Euro Area

August 3, 2018

The July spread between the ISM non-manufacturing U.S. purchasing managers index and IHS’s service-sector PMIĀ for the euro area was 2.4 points smaller than June’s differential. In combination with a 2.3-point contraction of their manufacturing PMI spread reported earlier this week, the sum of the two first differences was slightly more than halved to 4.5 points, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Service Sector PMI Surveys and U.S. Jobs Data

August 3, 2018

The U.S. Labor Department’s July jobs and wage data will be released shortly. Investors are already digesting PMI data reported overnight. Euroland’s composite purchasing managers survey (comprising both manufacturing and service sector activities) dropped back to a 2-month low of 54.3 in July from a 4-month high in June of 54.9. The services PMI had […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Mexico Decides Not to Raise Interest Rate after Latest Policy Review

August 2, 2018

The Governing Board kept its overnight interbank interest rate at 7.75% but observed in a released statement that “since the last monetary policy decision, the balance of risks to the forecasted trajectory of inflation remains biased upwards, in an environment of high uncertainty.” There had been two 25-basis point hikes this year — in February […] More

Central Bank Watch

Czech National Bank Lifts 2-Week Repo Rate to 1.25% from 1.00%

August 2, 2018

Developing economies like that of the Czech Republic depend on capital inflows, and these have diminished as a result of U.S. President Trump’s protectionist agenda. Currencies have depreciated, forcing central banks to raise interest rates and counter imported inflation. Today’s Czech National Bank rate increase is the fifth of the cycle, following moves of 20 […] More

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