New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Long-Term Interest Rates Climb Higher All Around the World

October 4, 2018

Ten-year sovereign debt yields extended their recent advance by 13 basis points in Greece, 8 bps in Great Britain, 6 bps in Italy, Germany and The Netherlands, 5 bps in France, 3 bps in U.S. Treasury futures, and 2 basis points in Japan. Fed Chairman Powell expressed strong confidence in an interview yesterday that solid […] More

Deeper Analysis

Spread Widens Between U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI and Euroland’s Services PMI

October 3, 2018

The ISM-compiled U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers index rose 3.1 points in September to 61.6, which is a record high for this 10-year-old data series. Sub-indices for business activity/production and for jobs climbed by 4.5 points and 5.7 points, while those for prices and new business were 1.4 and 1.2 points above their August readings. The […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Less Concern about Italy than Felt Yesterday

October 3, 2018

After Italy’s government had worried markets earlier by submitting a budget with a deficit of 2.4% of GDP, informed sources said that deficits would shrink after next year and settle back to 2.0% of GDP in 2021. A relief rally saw the 10-year sovereign Italian debt yield shed 13 basis points and Italy’s share prices […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Intensifying Concern that Euro Area Is Drifting Into a Fresh Debt Crisis over Italy

October 2, 2018

A quote from European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker set the tone for trading today: “I would not wish that, after having really been able to cope with the Greek crisis, we’ll end up in the same crisis in Italy.” Ten-year sovereign debt yields, while dropping today by 3 basis points in France, Germany, The Netherlands, […] More

Deeper Analysis

Trade War Concerns Affected U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices Equally in September

October 1, 2018

In September, the ISM-Compiled factory PMI index fell 1.5 points to 61.3, while the IHS-compiled euro area PMI dropped 1.4 points to 54.6. The manufacturing sectors continued to improve, but the lower scores in each economy reflects a reduced rate of improvement in operating conditions. And America’s relative advantage was preserved, but the data do […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Fourth Quarter Opens with Japanese Tankan Survey and a Slew of Manufacturing PMI Surveys

October 1, 2018

China will be closed all week, commemorating the communist revolution of 1949. Hong Kong’s market was similarly shut, and so was Australia’s due to Labour Day and the Queen’s Birthday observance there. A three-country Nafta remake including Canada as well as Mexico was fashioned at the last minute. Changes from the original deal were less […] More

Deeper Analysis

September and Third Quarter in Figures

September 29, 2018

Central bank policy rates were raised during the third quarter in the United States, U.K., and Canada but left unchanged in Japan, Switzerland and Euroland. Nevertheless, long-term interest rates climbed noticeably in all six of those economies. Thus, 10-year differentials between the U.S. and the other countries didn’t shift all that much. Moreover, the squeeze […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week

September 28, 2018

Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Australia, India, Iceland, Poland, Sri Lanka, Romania and Mexico. Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations will be published Monday. Powell, Mester, Rosengren, Barkin, Evans and Quarles are among the Fed officials speaking in public next week. Holidays and Events: China is shut all week […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Quarter-End Rush of Data, Italian Fiscal Concerns, and U.S. Supreme Court Drama

September 28, 2018

The new populist government of Five Star in Italy passed a stimulative budget, with a deficit equal to 2.4% of GDP and well above what Italy’s Euroland colleagues wanted to see. In response, the country’s 10-year sovereign debt yield leaped 33 basis points to 3.22%, while the comparable Greek sovereign debt yield went up 16 […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank Indonesia Tightens Again

September 27, 2018

Amid continuing domestic demand-led growth, a greater-than-desired current account deficit, and and external environment that puts many emerging market currencies and the financial markets at some risks, Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors sanctioned a fifth hike of the seven-day reverse repo rate from its past six meetings. The rate, which now becomes 5.75%, has now […] More

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