Deeper Analysis
U.S. and Canadian Trends in Trade
March 11, 2010
The $37.3 billion U.S. trade deficit in January interrupted a rising trend seen in recent months. The January gap was near to the average shortfall of $36.3 billion last quarter, worse than the mean monthly deficit last year of $31.6 billion but much narrower than the average 2008 gap of $58.0 billion per month. Merchandise [...] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S., Japanese, Ezone, and British GDP Growth in 4Q09
March 11, 2010
With revised Japanese figures out today, a reasonably representative comparison of growth in the four main advanced economies last quarter can be made and are summarized below, where C is personal consumption, I is business investment, G is government expenditures, and X represents exports. The percentage changes conform to the U.S. custom of annualization, that [...] More
Central Bank Watch
September Timing of a First Swiss Rate Hike Much More Probable Than June
March 11, 2010
The Swiss National Bank retained a 0.25% target on three-month Libor within a 0.0-0.75% corridor. Last September, officials served notice that the present expansionary stance cannot be maintained for the entire forecast horizon without compromising medium- and long-term price stability, and quantitative easing was ended last December. Today’s new quarterly SNB Monetary Policy Assessment does [...] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
All Quiet on the Currency Front
March 11, 2010
The dollar shows no overnight change against the yen, euro and Swiss franc. It’s up 0.1% against the Canadian and New Zealand dollars but off 0.4% against sterling and 0.1% relative to the Australian dollar. Aside from a 1.0% rise of the Japanese Nikkei, there’s been scant movement in stocks as well, limited to +0.7% in [...] More
Central Bank Watch
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting Review: No surprises
March 10, 2010
The Official Cash Rate of New Zealand was left at 2.5%, where it has been since April 2009. After New Zealand entered a five-quarter recession in the first quarter of 2008, 575 basis points of rate cuts were implemented between July 2008 and April 2009. As they did after the prior two meetings and as [...] More
Central Bank Watch
Hawkish Statement From the Bank of Thailand
March 10, 2010
The Bank of Thailand left its benchmark interest rate at 1.25%, the level since a 25-basis point cut last April 8. Prior cuts of 100 bps, 75 bps, and 50 bps had been implemented in December 2008, January 2009 and February 2009. A considerably more hawkish statement from monetary authorities today sets the stage for [...] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Busy Data Calendar Except From the United States
March 10, 2010
The dollar is mixed, with very little change against the euro, Swissy and Canadian dollar, rises of 0.5% against the yen and 0.4% relative to sterling and declines of 0.6% and 0.3% against the New Zealand and Australian dollars. Stocks closed unchanged in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. Equity gains were recorded of 0.8% in Malaysia [...] More
Central Bank Watch
Swiss Monetary Policy Preview
March 9, 2010
The Swiss National Bank holds fewer interest rate policy meetings than most central banks, just one per quarter when it also issues a fresh assessment with a projected inflation path going out 11 quarters. The March review will be unveiled on Thursday. The last rate cut occurred a year ago, when the Libor target corridor [...] More
Central Bank Watch
New Zealand Interest Rate Preview
March 9, 2010
The second interest rate policy meeting of 2010 is being held this week, and an announcement to retain the officials cash rate at 2.5% is expected around 20:00 GMT on Wednesday. The key rate has been 2.5% since late April 2009, when the rate was cut by 50 basis points. Initially, officials indicated that such [...] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Stronger Yen and Weaker Pound
March 9, 2010
The dollar fell 0.6% against the yen and below the 90/$ level. Otherwise, the dollar advanced 0.8% against sterling, 0.5% relative to the euro and kiwi, 0.4% against the Swiss franc, and 0.3% versus the Canadian and Australian currencies. Stocks were mixed in Asia but have retreated more uniformly in Europe. Equities gained 1.2% in Indonesia, [...] More
