German current account

An Historic FOMC Meeting on Tap Amid High Inflation and Some Cautious Optimism about the Pandemic and Diplomatic Efforts for a Russian Cease-Fire

March 16, 2022

The size of today’s initial federal funds rate hike is expected to be 25 basis points. I personally would prefer to see a bolder opening move of 50 basis points, as a symbolic gesture that Fed officials recognize that interest rate lift-off is starting late. But the credibility of forward guidance lies in not whip-sawing […] More

Lessening Risk Aversion

February 9, 2022

The recent sell-off in bonds has taken a step back, and that has encouraged bottom-feeding in equities. Nonetheless, markets have come a long way in the first five weeks of 2022. The 30 year U.S. fixed mortgage rate rose another five basis points last week and, at 3.83%, was 56 basis points above its end-2021 […] More

A Stew of Concerns about Climate Change, Covid, and the Fed Possibly Tapering Soon

August 9, 2021

A UN-sponsored study by scientists claims it is already too late to prevent significant further climate disruptions in the next couple of decades. In the United States, fires continue to rage, and the Pacific Northwest braces for another heat blast. Newly identified daily Covid cases in the United States have exceeded 100k for five straight […] More

Signs Emerging that Inflationary Momentum May Be Flattening

June 9, 2021

Consumer prices in China recorded their third month-on-month drop in a row, slipping 0.2% in May after declines of 0.3% in April and 0.2% in March. That didn’t prevent another acceleration of on-year CPI inflation, which advanced to an 8-month high of 1.3%. Moreover, price pressure at the producer level rose sharply again from 6.8% […] More

Slightly Softer Dollar Ahead of the Start of Trump Impeachment Trial

February 9, 2021

The dollar lost 0.4% in trade-weighted terms and is also down 0.6% against traditional hard currencies like the euro, yen and Swiss franc. The value of a bitcoin advanced to yet another record high of $48,000. Dollar weakness extends to many commodity-sensitive currencies and to gold, which is 0.6% firmer. Day one of the Trump […] More

Optimism from the Vaccine and Policy Developments

December 9, 2020

Once again stocks have risen and the dollar fallen from optimism that the arrival of vaccines means the beginning of a return to a better normal. The focus on vaccines coincides with difficult trends in Covid cases, deaths and hospitalizations. New cases in theĀ  past 24 hours exceed 600k globally and 216k in the United […] More

Investors Excited by Vaccine Trial News and U.S. Election Results

November 9, 2020

Stock markets are rallying on two pieces of news. Initial results of Pfizer’s large-scale trials of a Covid-19 vaccine have reportedly demonstrated 90% effectiveness among people without a prior condition. Donald Trump has lost his bid for a second term as president, but Republicans appear to have retained control of the senate. This combination of […] More

The Debate, Central Bank News, and More Data to Digest

October 8, 2020

Any reaction to the single U.S. vice presidential debate last night has already been squashed by just-breaking news regarding the second presidential debate scheduled for October 15th in Miami. The debate commission decided that debate should be held virtually rather than in person inasmuch as President Trump and many of his advisers have Covid, and […] More

A Many-Sided Investor Gloom

September 8, 2020

The U.S. Labor Day holiday pause didn’t restore stability to tech stocks, which continue to look overpriced and are set to fall sharply again this Tuesday. Talks between the EU and British government over a post-Brexit trade deal and between U.S. Republicans and Democrats over a fiscal stimulus package remain totally stalled, and it looks […] More

Covid Risk and Political Uncertainty on the Market’s Mind

July 9, 2020

The global count of Covid-19 cases rose 216 thousand in the past 24 hours to roughly 12.2 million. In that span, there was a record 62 thousand rise in U.S. reported cases, even as President Trump threatened repercussions to school districts that do not reopen in the fall. The Covid death count stands just above […] More

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