U.S. dollar
Less Dollar Volatility in First Quarter Than Meets the Eye
March 25, 2019
Long-time readers of Currency Thoughts have no doubt observed a diminished frequency of “insight” posts on the dollar in this space. A reason for this is that currency markets in recent years have been dominated by unexpected and abnormal political and policy developments to an even greater extent than usual. Surprise shocks are the bane […] More
Early 2019 Check-Up on the Dollar
January 10, 2019
Compared to volatile share prices and sovereign debt yields, key dollar relationships like EUR/USD and USD/JYP have been pretty stable lately, and neither of those pairs is trading in historically extreme territory. The euro just passed its 20th birthday. Over the four quadrants of this lifespan, the common European currency had an average value of […] More
2018 Shaping Into a Better Year for the Dollar than 2017 Was
May 14, 2018
We are mid-way through the second quarter and at the three-eighths marker though 2018. The dollar, which ultimately dropped 12.3% against the euro in 2017 and at a similar point of last year had declined 4.1%, shows a scant 0.3% net uptick against Europe’s common currency this year. The dollar is also above its end-2017 […] More
Dollar Reflections on a Snowy Day Early in January
January 4, 2018
Economic fundamentals improved last year in the United States and many other countries. Real activity grew faster. Inflation pivoted away from being troublesomely low to levels that still remained weaker than desired but ones that permitted monetary policy normalization to proceed gradually. Current account surpluses were experienced in the usual suspects such as Germany, Switzerland, […] More
Ceteris Paribus
March 28, 2017
Forecasting the dollar has been infinitely complicated by all the crazy stuff going on in U.S. politics, other populist movements, and changing policies. In theory, current economic conditions and their projected trends ought to be front and center in this process, but that’s far easier said than done. To simplify things when constructing predictive models, […] More
Comments on the Dollar’s Performance in the First Quarter
March 31, 2015
The dollar’s rise this quarter against the euro was historic. Appreciation at this writing stands at 12.6%, which is a larger move, up or down, than in any other first quarter since the euro was created at the start of 1999. The past quarter’s gain represents four-fifths of the $1.3993 to $1.2097 high-low spread in […] More
Bolder Official Efforts to Influence Currency Movements
September 25, 2014
Officials outside the United States had for some time been frustrated by the weakness of the dollar in spite of superior U.S. fundamental economic comparisons of real growth, labor market conditions, and interest rates. Now that the Federal Reserve’s third round of quantitative easing is wrapping up and speculation is heating up about an initial […] More
