U.S. dollar

Less Dollar Volatility in First Quarter Than Meets the Eye

March 25, 2019

Long-time readers of Currency Thoughts have no doubt observed a diminished frequency of  “insight” posts on the dollar in this space. A reason for this is that currency markets in recent years have been dominated by unexpected and abnormal political and policy developments to an even greater extent than usual. Surprise shocks are the bane […] More

Early 2019 Check-Up on the Dollar

January 10, 2019

Compared to volatile share prices and sovereign debt yields, key dollar relationships like EUR/USD and USD/JYP have been pretty stable lately, and neither of those pairs is trading in historically extreme territory. The euro just passed its 20th birthday. Over the four quadrants of this lifespan, the common European currency had an average value of […] More

2018 Shaping Into a Better Year for the Dollar than 2017 Was

May 14, 2018

We are mid-way through the second quarter and at the three-eighths marker though 2018. The dollar, which ultimately dropped 12.3% against the euro in 2017 and at a similar point of last year had declined 4.1%, shows a scant 0.3% net uptick against Europe’s common currency this year. The dollar is also above its end-2017 […] More

Dollar Reflections on a Snowy Day Early in January

January 4, 2018

Economic fundamentals improved last year in the United States and many other countries. Real activity grew faster. Inflation pivoted away from being troublesomely low to levels that still remained weaker than desired but ones that permitted monetary policy normalization to proceed gradually. Current account surpluses were experienced in the usual suspects such as Germany, Switzerland, […] More

Ceteris Paribus

March 28, 2017

Forecasting the dollar has been infinitely complicated by all the crazy stuff going on in U.S. politics, other populist movements, and changing policies. In theory, current economic conditions and their projected trends ought to be front and center in this process, but that’s far easier said than done. To simplify things when constructing predictive models, […] More

Comments on the Dollar’s Performance in the First Quarter

March 31, 2015

The dollar’s rise this quarter against the euro was historic.  Appreciation at this writing stands at 12.6%, which is a larger move, up or down, than in any other first quarter since the euro was created at the start of 1999.  The past quarter’s gain represents four-fifths of the $1.3993 to $1.2097 high-low spread in […] More

Bolder Official Efforts to Influence Currency Movements

September 25, 2014

Officials outside the United States had for some time been frustrated by the weakness of the dollar in spite of superior U.S. fundamental economic comparisons of real growth, labor market conditions, and interest rates.  Now that the Federal Reserve’s third round of quantitative easing is wrapping up and speculation is heating up about an initial […] More