Deeper Analysis

U.S. ISM PMI in Manufacturing and Euroland’s IHS PMI Compared

June 1, 2021

The ISM-compiled purchasing managers index rose half an index point to 61.2 in May, while the IHS-compiled euro area PMI edged 0.2 points higher to 63.1. The differential between the two compilations became 0.3 points less favorable toward Euroland. Each survey signifies¬† historically robust activity, and so does IHS’s U.S. index, which climbed 0.6 points […] More

May 2021 in Figures

May 31, 2021

Commodity prices and many commodity-sensitive currencies performed well during May. The weighted dollar index depreciated 1.2%, squandering all of its rise from the first four months of 2021, and dollar losses in May amounted to 1.5% or more against six of the eight currencies featured in the table below. Although central bank policy interest rates […] More

U.S. Jobs Report Delivers Biggest Forecasting Miss Ever

May 7, 2021

A net 266k non-farm jobs were added in April, more than 700k less than predicted. The 144.3 million level of employment remains nearly 50 million below the extended trendline of jobs growth occurring in the two decades between end-1979 and Y2K. Fed officials are right to believe that America is still far from what used […] More

Euroland’s Manufacturing PMI Moved Above the U.S. PMI Last Month

May 3, 2021

The IHS-compiled manufacturing purchasing managers index moved above the ISM-compiled U.S. manufacturing PMI for the first time since January 2018. This crossing of the lines stemped from an unexpected 4.0-point decline in the U.S. index even as the euro area index rose 0.4 additional points to a record high. It should be noted, however, that […] More

April 2021 in Figures

April 30, 2021

The month of April experienced significant further appreciation of U.S. equities and the price of oil. The Canadian and British stock markets kept pace with America’s to a certain extent, but the Swiss and Japanese lost ground. The dollar fell against a broad spectrum of other currencies, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield premium relative […] More

March and First Quarter 2021 in Figures

April 1, 2021

None of central banks below changed policy interest rates during the first quarter, but 10-year sovereign debt yield recorded sharp advances. Favorable U.S. long-term interest rate differentials became even more so during March. In spite of rising long-term bond yields, equities experienced gain last quarter including in March. The U.S. and Canadian dollars strengthened last […] More

U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing PMI Spread Shrunk 0.7 points to 2.2 Last Month

April 1, 2021

Manufacturing operating conditions improved last month in both Euroland and the United States. The IHS-compiled euro area purchasing managers index jumped 4.6 points to a record high of 62.5. Record highs above 60.0 were reached in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands, and the indices of Spain, Ireland, France, and Italy ranged upwards from 56.9 to […] More

Does Aggressive U.S. Pandemic Relief Risk an Unacceptably Big Future Inflation Problem?

March 29, 2021

Economists are divided on this question. Although more feel any inflationary fallout will be either temporary or manageable, some big names in the field like former Treasury Secretary Summers believe that the combination of prolonged very stimulative monetary policy, the CARES Act, subsequent government relief packages, and the Biden Administration’s fiscal plans to rebuild infrastructure […] More

And There It Is.. New Political Leadership Tempted to Depreciate the Dollar

March 4, 2021

An extensive article appearing on the front page of the New York Times business section two days ago and entitled To Revive Manufacturing, Weaken the Dollar? cites several economic policy advisors in the Biden administration being in favor of a carefully controlled slide in the dollar. One theme running through their thinking is the assertions […] More

U.S. Manufacturing Advantage Narrows Relative to Euroland

March 1, 2021

Whereas the Institute of Supply Management’s monthly purchasing managers index, a measure of operating conditions where values above 50 imply increasing degrees of improvement and vice versa, increased 2.1 points in February to robust 60.8, the IHS-compiled euro area PMI climbed 3.1 points to 57.9. Consequently, the difference between those two data series narrowed by […] More