Deeper Analysis
March and First Quarter 2026 in Figures
March 31, 2026
March was dominated by wild daily and intra-daily swings in financial vital signs as sentiment about the outcome and duration of the Middle Eastern war swung with each news flash, and investors tried to figure out the implications for the path of energy prices, general inflation, and the shape of Middle East oil facilities when […] More
How Often Do U.S. Stock Market Corrections Evolve into Bear Markets?
March 20, 2026
With key U.S. stock market indices fast approaching correction status, I asked Google AI Overview how often previous corrections of the S&P 500 (defined as a cumulative high-to-low movement of at least 10%) have evolved into a bear market, where the requirement is a decline of 20% or more. I learned that Corrections are actually […] More
Post-Covid Inflation Heavily Influenced by Global Factors
March 16, 2026
National inflationary trends this decade have by and large followed a similar pattern. Consumer price inflation peaked in June 2022 at 9.1% in the United States, at 8.1% in Canada and at 10.6% in Euroland. The British and Turkish CPI peaks of 11.1% and 85.5% happened in October 2022. Swiss inflation crested at 3.5% a […] More
February 2026 in Figures
February 28, 2026
U.S.-generated uncertainty, which had been so prominent in 2025, somehow managed to build to an even greater extent in the first month of President Trump’s second term. Despite being the creator of the chaos, America’s currency benefited from safe-haven demand, so losses versus currencies against which the dollar fell during February were comparatively muted. The […] More
Wondering If the Dollar Will Be A-Changing
February 16, 2026
There has been a proliferation in recent months of articles pondering if the U.S. currency might be going down a path leading to the end of its hegemonic role as the world’s reserve currency without equal, a function that bestows many unique beneficial advantages on the U.S. economy. These examinations are married to forecasts that […] More
January 2026 in Figures
January 31, 2026
The most spectacular financial market changes last month involved precious metals, whose prices posted impressive net gains despite enormous sell-offs on the final trading day of the month. At record peaks of $121.79 per ounce for silver and $5,626.8 for gold, those metal had accrued gains of 72% and almost 30%, but closed with net […] More
December 2025 and Full 2025 in Figures
January 1, 2026
Gold and silver prices soared in 2025, as the dollar experienced its weakest performance in almost a decade. Despite central bank interest rate cuts in Europe and North America, long-term interest rates advanced somewhat. Bitcoin swung all over the place but fell only around 6% on balance. Lower oil prices enabled reported total inflation to […] More
October 2025 in Figures
October 31, 2025
Ten-year sovereign debt yields declined substantially in the U.K. and Canada but experienced much smaller net changes during October in other economies in the table below. A 25-basis point cut in the federal funds target late in the month contrasted with decisions in Japan and Euroland not to change policy. Central bank policy reviews were […] More
Third Quarter 2025 in Figures
October 1, 2025
The Bank of England and Federal Reserve Bank interest rates were each lowered 25 basis points during the third quarter, whereas central banks were not changed in Euroland, Japan or Switzerland. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose in Euroland, Great Britain, Japan, Switzerland and Japan but dropped in the United States. Net changes in the dollar […] More
A Long, Long View of the Dollar’s External Value: Low Now and In Danger of Weakening Further
September 15, 2025
Charts of the often-quoted DXY/USDX weighted index of the dollar provide a view going back to the birth of flexible dollar rates some 52 and a half years ago. The currency weights reflect trade flows with other major economies at an historic time rather than the current one. The index is dominated by the euro […] More
