Deeper Analysis

Comparing the Central Bank Interest Rate Paths of the United States, Brazil, U.K., Iceland,Poland and Czech Republic

May 5, 2022

All six of the central banks in this comparative study had interest rate hikes announced either today or yesterday. In none of the cases was the increase the first one of the current cycles. All these tightening cycles represent responses to accelerating inflation caused in large part by external factors like the pandemic, policy responses […] More

April 2022 in Figures

April 29, 2022

The medium-term outlook for the U.S. economy soured progressively during the past month. The Federal Reserve signaled that it had no choice but to embark on an aggressive tightening of its policy, and investors worried that containing inflation from its current multi-decade high could not be possible unless the economy endures a period of recession. […] More

First Quarter and March 2022 in Figures

April 1, 2022

March 2022 saw pandemic distortions to growth and inflation subside, only to be superseded by risks from the war in Ukraine. Commodity prices got an upward jolt, forcing central banks to prioritize the containment of inflation above a stance that had supported recovery from the pandemic. The Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Federal […] More

Inflation Has Spiked, But Nobody Is to Blame

March 7, 2022

When something goes wrong economically, it’s natural to find fault in political leadership, and oftentimes mistaken policies are culpable. The Covid pandemic presented challenges not seen in a century, and there were no accurate, comprehensive, and reliably useful data to predict either the evolution of the pandemic or exactly how economies would respond to public […] More

February 2022 in Figures

February 28, 2022

Investors were already on high alert as the month began as a re-intensification of inflationary pressures made the prospect of tighter monetary policies seem more inevitable and likely to proceed more aggressively than imagined at the start of this year. On top of that set of risks, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine played out in surreal […] More

Poland’s Central Bank Interest Rate Hiked to 2.75% from 2.25%

February 8, 2022

The Monetary Policy Council at the National Bank of Poland announced its fifth rate increase since October when the reference rate was languishing at a mere 0.10%. Most central banks around the world have been switching priorities, putting more emphasis on containing high inflation, or to put a finer point on it, ensuring that medium-term […] More

January 2022 in Figures

January 31, 2022

High global inflation dominated the past month. Central bank interest rates were raised in January in several countries, including Poland, Peru, Romania, South Korea, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Kazakhstan, Chile, Hungary and South Africa, and markets anticipated that top-tier monetary authorities like those covered in the table below will be following suit. The Bank of England […] More

December and 2021 in Figures

January 1, 2022

In 2021, the dollar, long-term sovereign debt yields, share prices, commodity prices, and overall inflation rose. Only the Bank of England’s policy interest rate among central banks featured in the monthly feature rose, and that increase didn’t happen until mid-December via a comparatively modest 15 basis points. The Fed and ECB are tapering asset purchase […] More

Central Bank Thinking in Addressing the Spike in Inflation

December 17, 2021

The following excerpts from the Bank of Russia governor explaining today’s sharp interest rate hike epitomized the dilemma of many central bankers around the world coming to terms with an inflation spike caused by mostly supply bottlenecks that has lasted longer than anticipated. Our special focus is to ensure that the monetary policy is well-balanced. […] More

November 2021 in Figures

November 30, 2021

The Omicron revelation last week dwarfed all other developments that had occurred earlier in November. Equity prices and ten-year sovereign debt yields fell sharply in response. The dollar experienced strong gains during November. The price of West Texas Intermediate oil, whose prior rise has been a leading factor in the global intensification of inflation this […] More