Deeper Analysis

November 2022 in Figures

November 30, 2022

The dollar, Bitcoin and long-term interest rates in North America and Europe fell sharply in November, while equities and oil and gold prices climbed substantially. November was an active month  for central banks. In addition to the 75-basis point policy rate hikes shown below at the Fed and Bank of England, monetary benchmark rates were […] More

Inflation and Crime

November 4, 2022

The U.S. midterm elections on November 8 are just days away, and Republicans appear headed for a very successful evening, vindicating their choice to focus the campaign on inflation and crime. America is in fact at a crossroads on many issues that ought to be debated, but Republicans took their lead from polls that identified […] More

October 2022 in Figures

November 1, 2022

In an otherwise dismal year for equities, share prices bounced sharply higher in October. In this revival, the British market and technology sector lagged. Among the major central banks shown in the table below, only the European Central Bank, which matched September’s 75-basis point rate hike, changed its key interest rate. But among other monetary […] More

Thursday’s U.S. Data Release Highlights

October 27, 2022

The composition of U.S. real GDP growth last quarter reveals a weaker economy than the quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 2.6% or the unchanged 1.8% year-on-year GDP increase. Personal consumption, which accounts by far for the largest share (70.7%) of GDP, rose only 1.4%, or a bit less than half as fast as GDP, and […] More

Setting the Record Straight about U.S. Economic Performances Under Different Presidential Administrations

October 18, 2022

The results of a recent NYT/Sienna opinion poll produced the eye-catching result that although “most voters say U.S. democracy is under threat,” that concern is being eclipsed by dissatisfaction with the economy’s direction, and a majority would be willing to see Republicans control the Congress. The performance of the U.S. economy since 1961 certainly does […] More

Rampant Inflation Worries Not Overstated

October 13, 2022

Financial markets again reacted very fearfully to a U.S. consumer price report. The 8.2% 12-month rate of increase in the total CPI was in fact down from 8.3% in August, 8.5% in July, and this year’s high of 9.1% in June. Core consumer price inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy items, did go […] More

Third Quarter 2022 in Figures

September 30, 2022

3Q 2022 was a stellar quarter for the dollar but a terrible time for equities and sovereign debt values. Almost all central banks are now on the interest rate hike bandwagon, with the Bank of Japan being the most notable exception. While oil prices lost about a quarter of their value in the period and […] More

Rundown of Tuesday U.S. Data Releases

September 27, 2022

Home price inflation decelerated in July to a 15-month low of 16.1% according to the Case-Shiller index and to a 17-month low of 13.9% meaured by the FHFA index. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey index weakened 4.3 points to a 2-month low of -17.2 in September, but the Richmond Fed manufacturing index recovered eight index […] More

FOMC Statement, Projections, and Press Conference

September 21, 2022

The FOMC increased the federal funds target by 75 basis points, meeting but not exceeded the majority forecast of investors. The new target is a range of 3.0-3.25%. The statement made just one modification, describing growth in spending and production as modest. In the July 27 statement, such was said to have “softened.” The policy […] More

August 2022 in Figures

August 31, 2022

The month of August served as a reality check to July’s fantasy that decades’ high inflation around the world could be doused successfully, speedily, and lastingly with only modest shock to the real economy. As a result, sharp increases in most long-term interest rates, big drops in share prices, and commodity price declines were experienced […] More