Central Bank of Brazil
“We’ll Have to See What Happens”
August 6, 2026
Pick your cliche. Waiting for Godot. It ain’t over til the fat lady sings, or the Trumpian favorite that we’ll have to see what happens. Iran and Oman, which occupies the other side of the narrow Strait of Hormuz, are reportedly crafting an interim commitment to partially but not fully open the shipping passageway. Military […] More
Fourth Brazilian Central Bank Interest Rate Cut Since March
August 5, 2026
Four 25-basis point rate cuts at the Central Bank of Brazil have lowered such to 14.0%, which still remains far above the latest 12-month 4.6% rate of consumer price inflation. Today’s reduction was decided unanimously, and more cautious downward moves are to be expected in coming months. A three percentage point inflation corridor is targeted, […] More
Interest Rate Hikes in Indonesia, the Philippines and Czech Republic but a Cut in Brazil
June 18, 2026
Bank Indonesia’s 25-basis point rate hike to 5.75% followed an unscheduled review just eight days earlier and an initial tightening done in May. The haste implied by this sequence of increases totaling a full percentage point has been motivated by inflation of 3.1% that exceeds the 2.5% target mid-point but even more so by the […] More
Trump Eating Crow After Getting Less Than He Wanted from Iran War and the Federal Reserve
June 18, 2026
President Trump signed a memo of understanding with Iran to end the war with Iran, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow for a period of 60 days to address Iran’s nuclear program and hammer out remaining disagreements. While this signing is viewed as an important step toward reestablishing the supply of energy and other […] More
Rate Cut in Brazil
April 30, 2026
One economy where there has been an interest rate change involves the Brazilian Selic rate, which was sliced yesterday by 25 basis points to 14.5%. An initial easing of 25 bps had also been done in March, prior to which the Central Bank of Brazil‘s rate had stayed at 15.0% since last June. Considering that […] More
Key Central Bank Decisions, Many Data Releases, Suspected Japanese Intervention, and A Possible Resumption of U.S. Military Attacks on Iran Vie for Investor Attention
April 30, 2026
Frustrated with the continuing effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump is reportedly soliciting advice on the options for resuming military strikes against Iran, which he had hoped to avoid. The price of WTI oil briefly poked above $110.0 per barrel overnight but is quoted currently at $104.44, down 2.3% on balance. With […] More
U.S. PPI, Fed Decision and Powell’s Press Conference Loom on a Day With Many Other Central Bank Rate Decisions as Well
March 18, 2026
There’s been scant net movement in the dollar overnight. The Federal Open Market Committee is not expected to change the 3.5-3.75% federal funds target range, but today’s meeting has created considerable attention. It’s Chairman Powell’s next-to-last meeting as chairman, but he could stay on the committee into 2028 when his 14-year term as an at-large […] More
Dollar Modestly Lower
January 29, 2026
Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference yesterday elicited a subdued reaction in financial markets. Typical of the end of each month, there is an extensive menu of data getting released around the world today and tomorrow. Relative to Wednesday closing levels, the dollar has slid 0.2% or less against a variety of currencies including the euro, […] More
Slight Retreat in the Dollar and A Razor-Thin Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
November 6, 2025
The stepped down a little in overnight trading, losing 0.3% against the euro and yen, 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc and sterling, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the Canadian and Australian currencies. Alternatively, South Korea’s won lost 0.4% against the dollar and even more versus the yen. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose three basis points in […] More
A Three-Ring Circus of Market Influences
October 30, 2025
A 90-minute meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea resulted in a de-escalation of trade tensions but a rise in national security brinkmanship. While a formal trade deal was not signed, an understanding was reached on several points. The treat of a 100% U.S. tariff on China was dropped, and the fentanyl-related levy […] More
