FOMC preview
FOMC Preview
February 1, 2023
Beginning last March, the federal funds rate target was increased at the last seven scheduled FOMC meetings in 2022 by a total 425 basis points to a range of 4.25-4.50%. Forward guidance has lately been framed around three questions: how much to lift at each instance — how high does the rate need to be […] More
FOMC Preview
November 2, 2022
The federal funds rate target was raised by three full percentage points in the span of a just a half year. Another hike of 75 basis points is widely expected today, yet the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.03% is only 184 basis points above the level when the first rate hike was engineered last March […] More
FOMC Preview
September 21, 2022
In the race of central bankers around the world to get ahead of the inflation-reduction curve, the Federal Reserve had been neither the least aggressive nor most aggressive monetary institution in shifting from a very accommodative stance to one that goes beyond mere neutrality to eventual restraint. Quantitative stimulus has given way to a program […] More
FOMC Preview
July 27, 2022
The fourth straight hike in the federal funds target is expected to match the previous increase of 75 basis points on June 15 and bring the cumulative rise this year to 225 basis points. With the new target range ceiling of 2.5%, policy has returned to what officials generally consider a neutral stance, that is […] More
FOMC Preview
June 15, 2022
The early May FOMC meeting issued forward guidance to expect 50-basis point interest rate hikes both today and at the next policy review in late July, and that road map was the accepted wisdom until the last few days when moves of 75 basis points suddenly became the new normal. With hindsight, the FOMC should […] More
FOMC Preview
May 4, 2022
Not much could have been said by officials in the seven weeks since the first FOMC hike to prepare markets for a doubling of the rate hike increment to 50 basis points. This will be the first hike of a half percentage point since May 2000. With that prospect in mind, the 10-year U.S. Treasury […] More
FOMC Preview
March 16, 2022
Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly signaled that a cycle of many interest rates increases will begin after today’s FOMC meeting, and any initial incremental rise other than 25 basis points would be a huge surprise. Purchases of of Treasury and agency mortgaged-backed securities are already on schedule to end after this month. The previous cycle […] More
FOMC Preview
January 26, 2022
Over the six weeks since the last FOMC meeting in 2021, the dollar has risen 0.3% against the yen but dipped 0.2% relative to the euro. The anticipation of Fed interest rate liftoff as soon as March has weighed on equities not only in the United States but also many other countries. The ten-year Treasury […] More
FOMC Preview
December 15, 2021
After the last Federal Open Market Committee review of U.S. monetary policy on November 2-3, officials laid out a tentative scheduled for tapering net asset purchases by $15 billion per month. At that pace, it would take eight reductions to completely halt the growth in holdings after next June, with the caveat of being ” […] More
FOMC Preview
November 3, 2021
Significant financial market movements have transpired in the six weeks since the Federal Open Market Committee last met. The ten-year Treasury yield is a quarter percentage point higher now, and the dollar has appreciated 4.5% against the yen and 1.3% versus the euro. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high yesterday and […] More
