FOMC preview

FOMC Preview

June 15, 2022

The early May FOMC meeting issued forward guidance to expect 50-basis point interest rate hikes both today and at the next policy review in late July, and that road map was the accepted wisdom until the last few days when moves of 75 basis points suddenly became the new normal. With hindsight, the FOMC should […] More

FOMC Preview

May 4, 2022

Not  much could have been said by officials in the seven weeks since the first FOMC hike to prepare markets for a doubling of the rate hike increment to 50 basis points. This will be the first hike of a half percentage point since May 2000. With that prospect in mind, the 10-year U.S. Treasury […] More

FOMC Preview

March 16, 2022

Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly signaled that a cycle of many interest rates increases will begin after today’s FOMC meeting, and any initial incremental rise other than 25 basis points would be a huge surprise. Purchases of of Treasury and agency mortgaged-backed securities are already on schedule to end after this month. The previous cycle […] More

FOMC Preview

January 26, 2022

Over the six weeks since the last FOMC meeting in 2021, the dollar has risen 0.3% against the yen but dipped 0.2% relative to the euro. The anticipation of Fed interest rate liftoff as soon as March has weighed on equities not only in the United States but also many other countries. The ten-year Treasury […] More

FOMC Preview

December 15, 2021

After the last Federal Open Market Committee review of U.S. monetary policy on November 2-3, officials laid out a tentative scheduled for tapering net asset purchases by $15 billion per month. At that pace, it would take eight reductions to completely halt the growth in holdings after next June, with the caveat of being ” […] More

FOMC Preview

November 3, 2021

Significant financial market movements have transpired in the six weeks since the Federal Open Market Committee last met. The ten-year Treasury yield is a quarter percentage point higher now, and the dollar has appreciated 4.5% against the yen and 1.3% versus the euro. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high yesterday and […] More

FOMC Preview

June 16, 2021

The issue at stake at this week’s monetary policy review meeting is whether officials are going to imply that the onset for the tapering of policy stimulus may be less distant than they have implied previously. Inflation in the United States has accelerated more sharply than officials were anticipating. Perceptions of inflation and expected inflation […] More

FOMC Preview

April 28, 2021

In the six weeks since the last FOMC meeting, the dollar has fallen 1.3% against the euro and 0.3% versus the yen. The 10-year Treasury yield is now three basis points lower than then although it has been rising lately. The Dow Jones Industrials has risen 3.0%, while the price of West Texas Intermediate crude […] More

FOMC Preview

March 17, 2021

Since the last FOMC meeting seven weeks ago, investors have embraced riskier assets. The 10-year Treasury yield is 67 basis points higher now than then, and the DJIA is up 7.7%. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has soared 21%, while gold has weakened 6.5%.  the dollar has risen 5.0% against the yen,  […] More

FOMC Preview

January 27, 2021

The Federal Open Market Committee holds eight scheduled meetings per year and consists of the seven members of the Board of Governors (appointed by the president and confirmed by the senate), the New York Fed president, who serves as Vice Chairman of the FOMC, and four of the other eleven district presidents, who rotate onto […] More

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