FOMC preview
FOMC Preview
June 17, 2026
From a peak of 5.25-5.50%, the federal funds target was lowered in two waves that occurred at the final three scheduled monetary policy reviews of 2024 and 2025. The first wave amounted to a drop of 100 basis points to 4.25-4.50%, while each of the three cuts late last year had a size of 25 […] More
FOMC Preview
April 29, 2026
The last FOMC meeting occurred only 2-1/2 weeks into the Middle Eastern war. Seven additional weeks have elapsed, and a war that was not expected to last more than five weeks, if that, is still unresolved. A ceasefire has quelled outright conflict but the economic pressure points of the war — the global price of […] More
FOMC Preview
March 18, 2026
The Federal Reserve is not expected to change its policy interest rate at this second scheduled review of 2026 and the next to last one that will be chaired by Jerome Powell. Some dissenting votes seem likely, and the risk of dissent is not entirely one sided because U.S. growth is slowing while inflation risks […] More
FOMC Preview
January 28, 2026
The eight scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings scheduled each year have become instances of very high theater. The progressive ramping up of pressure on the committee from the Trump administration hit new heights during the seven weeks since the group last met, forcing Chairman Powell is issue an unprecedented statement on January 11th defending […] More
October 2025 FOMC Meeting Preview
October 29, 2025
A second consecutive 25-basis point cut of the federal funds rate target range to 3.75-4.00% is pretty universally expected after today’s 7th of eight 2025 scheduled policy reviews by the Federal Open Market Committee. At the first five reviews this year, monetary easing was on pause because the disinflationary process had stalled with inflation still […] More
June 2025 FOMC Meeting Preview
June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve’s federal funds target was cut at the last three scheduled FOMC meetings in 2024 by a total of 100 basis points to a range of 4.25-4.50% but has been left at that level at each of the first three policy reviews this year. Amid mounting uncertainty not of the Fed’s own making, […] More
May 2025 FOMC Meeting Preview
May 7, 2025
In the seven weeks since the last FOMC meeting, the dollar has declined 4.2% against the euro and 1.7% relative to the yen. The 4-basis point net drop in the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.1% slide of the Dow Jones Industrials belie the extreme financial market volatility experiences during the period. A more representative barometer […] More
FOMC Preview: U.S. Vital Market Levels Now Versus Those at Earlier FOMC Meetings
January 29, 2025
The federal funds target was cut at the previous three FOMC policy reviews in September, November, and December by a total of 100 basis points (or one percentage point) to 4.25-4.50%. Paradoxically, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield over that span rose 86 basis points, including 18 bps since the December cut. Fed easing has also […] More
FOMC Preview
December 18, 2024
The Federal Open Market Committee last met right after the U.S. election that is returning Donald Trump to the White House with a majority in both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court and with a revolutionary policy agenda that among other things may lift inflation near term. At the November press conference after a […] More
FOMC Preview
November 7, 2024
The unexpected breath of this week’s Republican Party election victory is not expected to impede previous signals by the Fed of a likely modest interest rate hike at this month’s scheduled monetary policy review. There previously has been only a single 50-basis point cut from peak, which happened at the prior meeting on September 18. […] More
