German industrial production
Fresh Iranian Attacks on Shipping Setting Wednesday’s Financial Market Tone
October 7, 2026
The Brent price of oil is back above $100 per barrel and 1.1% above yesterday’s close, while West Texas Intermediate has been lifted back to the $90 threshold. Long-term interest rates in turn have taken their cue from renewed attacks on ships trying to traverse the Strait of Hormuz. Ten-year sovereign debt yields have leaped […] More
Monday Recap: Fading Peace Hopes, September Interest Rate Hike Expectations, Revised Euroland GDP and North American Holiday Closures
September 7, 2026
(123) Like so many other weekends this year, developments around the Strait of Hormuz did not support claims that progress is being made on the diplomatic front. Oil prices are around 1% higher than last week’s closing levels. Speculation is high that central bank interest rates will be lifted later this month at both the […] More
A Reminder that Iran Risk Still Lurks, but Market Reaction Lacks Panic
July 7, 2026
Just six weeks remain in the 60-day negotiating window laid out in the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran. The past weekend had lacked the customary military craziness, but a big ship carrying energy took on fire in a reminder that investors mustn’t make assumptions that this political distraction will end with […] More
U.S. Equities Withstand a Renewed U.S./Iranian Clash and Now Await April Jobs Report
May 8, 2026
In the Bizzaro landscape that has surrounded the Hormuz Strait impasse, the biggest clash between the U.S. and Iran in the current cease-fire followed shortly after hopeful words from President Trump that a deal to reopen that critical water passage may be reached soon. The U.S. attack on Iranian drone facilities clearly deals a blow […] More
Investors Positioning for Likely Fed Reserve Rate Cut from FOMC Meeting that Starts Tomorrow
December 8, 2025
(162) The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose five basis points overnight in anticipation of a 25-basis point cut likely to be announced on Wednesday. This increase exerted a similarly-sized increase in other 10-year sovereign debt yields, for example of 8 bps in Spain, 7 bps in Spain, 6 bps in Germany and Great Britain, 5 […] More
Slight Retreat in the Dollar and A Razor-Thin Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
November 6, 2025
The stepped down a little in overnight trading, losing 0.3% against the euro and yen, 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc and sterling, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the Canadian and Australian currencies. Alternatively, South Korea’s won lost 0.4% against the dollar and even more versus the yen. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose three basis points in […] More
Dollar Revival Extended
October 8, 2025
Driven by sluggish growth and political uncertainties affecting other economies, the dollar climbed overnight by a further 0.6% against the Japanese yen and Korean won, 0.4% relative to the New Zealand dollar, 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro and 0.2% versus the Swiss franc, Turkish lira and British pound. The intra-day high in the weighted DXY dollar […] More
Many Data Releases and Central Bank Interest Rate Announcements
August 7, 2025
Reciprocal tariffs became effective today. The scale of their increase is profound, and reactions in America to the new tax are extremely polarized and aligned with political affiliations. For Trump supporters, today is a great day, heralding a large new source of fiscal revenue and a rebirth of the country’s manufacturing sector. For political opponents, […] More
More Tariff News
July 7, 2025
(184) Like so many other Mondays this year, financial markets are marching to the beat of President Trump postings on Truth Social rather than economic fundamental trends. And as typically has been the case, the postings serve a dual purpose of unveiling new and changed information about future policy but also deflecting attention away from […] More
Little Respite for Worried Investors
April 7, 2025
(197) The heavy selloff of riskier assets extended dynamically into a fresh week. President Trump has shown no inclination of blinking first on his broadly based and very large tariff hikes. Reactions by other countries have been mixed. The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield eased another basis point and is now below 4.0%. Comparable German bund […] More
