German industrial production

Reality Sinking In

May 6, 2022

The Federal Reserve is really in a tough spot, and the bump in optimism when Chairman Powell disclosed there had been no discussion of raising rates by more than 50 basis points proved short-lived. It’s going to be very hard to get inflation back to target without at some point steepening the rise of interest […] More

Sharp Rise in European 10-Year Sovereign Debt Yields

February 7, 2022

Ten-year sovereign debt yields posted daily jumps this Monday of 27 basis points in Greece, 12 basis points in Italy, 8 basis points in Spain and Portugal, 4 bps in France, 3 bps in Germany, 2 bps in the U.K. and just a single basis point to 1.92% in the United States. The 10-year Japanese […] More

Dollar and Equity Markets Extend Recoveries

December 7, 2021

Identified Covid cases in America are zeroing in on the 50 million level since the start of the pandemic, including almost 119k cases yesterday. But there has been a sense of relief in the absence so far of evidence that the Omicron Variant will be associated with higher rates of hospitalization or deaths. Investors are […] More

Dollar Back Close to 52-Week High Ahead of U.S. October Jobs Report

November 5, 2021

The weighted DXY dollar index is presently trading almost back at its one-year high. It rose overnight by 0.2% against the euro and 0.1% relative to the yen and loonie and scored even larger gains of 0.5% against the Swiss franc and Australian dollar and 0.4% relative to the New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso and […] More

A Very Temporary Solution in the U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate

October 7, 2021

Progress has been made on averting a U.S. debt default that would otherwise have occurred in the middle of this month, but the reprieve only buys about two extra months. Even so, two months are better than nothing, so equity markets rallied overnight. And the dollar and price of oil moved lower. The dollar fell […] More

Higher Long-Term Interest Rates Lifts Dollar and Depresses Stocks and Commodities

September 7, 2021

10-year sovereign debt yields are five basis  points higher in the United States and Great Britain and up four basis points in Germany. The 10-year Japanese JGB yield, by contrast, is unchanged. The dollar rose 0.4% overnight against the DXY weighted index. The yen (up 0.3%) has outpaced the 0.1% upticks in the euro and […] More

Dollar Strengthening after Solid U.S. Employment Report

August 6, 2021

The DXY weighted dollar index advanced 0.4% overnight but, at 92.58, remains well inside its 52-week range of 89.21 – 94.74. The dollar’s overnight advance has been broadly spread, with gains of at least 0.3% against the euro, yen, Aussie dollar, Swiss franc and sterling. The U.S. July employment situation improved more rapidly than anticipated, […] More

More European Data, More Covid Cases, and FOMC Minutes

July 7, 2021

The dollar shows modest overnight gains of 0.2% against the euro and sterling and 0.1% relative to the yen and Swiss franc. Larger advances have occurred against the Australian and New Zealand currencies and the Mexican peso. Equities closed down 1.0% in Japan, 1.5% in Singapore, 0.6% in South Korea, and 0.4% in Hong Kong […] More

Lots of Other Data to Digest While Waiting for U.S. April Jobs Report

May 7, 2021

The dollar, down a mere 0.1% overnight, and the 10-year Treasury yield — unchanged at 1.57% — have been  marking time ahead of the U.S. Labor Department’s monthly jobs report, which is expected to reveal a 0.1-0.2 percentage point drop in unemployment, another large jump in employment of close to 900k, but tepid wage pressure. […] More

Continuing Rise of Long-Term U.S. Bond Yields Lifts Dollar but Depresses Equities

March 8, 2021

The 10-year Treasury yield’s uptrend that began from 0.89% in mid-December has been extended another three basis points to 1.60%. The senate approved a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package along partisan lines over the weekend, and  investors are concerned that U.S. inflation will exceed the Fed’s expectations in both the short and long run. Bond […] More

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