German industrial production

Dollar Trading at Highest Level Since the First Week of January

February 7, 2023

The softening dollar trend in the final quarter of 2022 had extended into January, but that month’s losses have been mostly reversed in recent days by heightened geopolitical strains between the U.S. and China and even more so by a rise in expectations about how high the federal funds rate will need to be raised […] More

Equities and Commodity Prices Higher; Bonds and Dollar Lower on Light Data Release Monday

January 9, 2023

Investor optimism had been buoyed strongly just prior to the weekend by a U.S. employment situation report that appeared consistent with a soft landing rather than a coming recession. A further boost has come from China’s promised economic policy support to quicken that economy’s return to pre-pandemic growth now that zero-Covid has been scrapped. The […] More

Equity Wobbles Continue

December 7, 2022

Warnack won the Georgia senatorial runoff election, giving the Democrats a narrow senate majority plus the presidency for the coming two years, but Republicans now control the U.S. House of Representatives and have a solid grip on the Supreme Court for the foreseeable future. The dollar overnight dropped 0.5% against sterling, 0.4% relative to the […] More

A Busy Wednesday as Central Banks Compete with Data for Market Attention

September 7, 2022

Dollar strength continues, with another 20-year high touched overnight by the weighted DXY index. At 144.98, the dollar climbed 1.4% overnight and to its highest Japanese yen value since August 1998 when the Asian debt crisis was raging. The greenback also has advanced 0.8% versus sterling and 0.3% vis-a-vis the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand […] More

Reality Sinking In

May 6, 2022

The Federal Reserve is really in a tough spot, and the bump in optimism when Chairman Powell disclosed there had been no discussion of raising rates by more than 50 basis points proved short-lived. It’s going to be very hard to get inflation back to target without at some point steepening the rise of interest […] More

Sharp Rise in European 10-Year Sovereign Debt Yields

February 7, 2022

Ten-year sovereign debt yields posted daily jumps this Monday of 27 basis points in Greece, 12 basis points in Italy, 8 basis points in Spain and Portugal, 4 bps in France, 3 bps in Germany, 2 bps in the U.K. and just a single basis point to 1.92% in the United States. The 10-year Japanese […] More

Dollar and Equity Markets Extend Recoveries

December 7, 2021

Identified Covid cases in America are zeroing in on the 50 million level since the start of the pandemic, including almost 119k cases yesterday. But there has been a sense of relief in the absence so far of evidence that the Omicron Variant will be associated with higher rates of hospitalization or deaths. Investors are […] More

Dollar Back Close to 52-Week High Ahead of U.S. October Jobs Report

November 5, 2021

The weighted DXY dollar index is presently trading almost back at its one-year high. It rose overnight by 0.2% against the euro and 0.1% relative to the yen and loonie and scored even larger gains of 0.5% against the Swiss franc and Australian dollar and 0.4% relative to the New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso and […] More

A Very Temporary Solution in the U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate

October 7, 2021

Progress has been made on averting a U.S. debt default that would otherwise have occurred in the middle of this month, but the reprieve only buys about two extra months. Even so, two months are better than nothing, so equity markets rallied overnight. And the dollar and price of oil moved lower. The dollar fell […] More

Higher Long-Term Interest Rates Lifts Dollar and Depresses Stocks and Commodities

September 7, 2021

10-year sovereign debt yields are five basisĀ  points higher in the United States and Great Britain and up four basis points in Germany. The 10-year Japanese JGB yield, by contrast, is unchanged. The dollar rose 0.4% overnight against the DXY weighted index. The yen (up 0.3%) has outpaced the 0.1% upticks in the euro and […] More