German industrial production
Investors Positioning for Likely Fed Reserve Rate Cut from FOMC Meeting that Starts Tomorrow
December 8, 2025
(162) The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose five basis points overnight in anticipation of a 25-basis point cut likely to be announced on Wednesday. This increase exerted a similarly-sized increase in other 10-year sovereign debt yields, for example of 8 bps in Spain, 7 bps in Spain, 6 bps in Germany and Great Britain, 5 […] More
Slight Retreat in the Dollar and A Razor-Thin Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
November 6, 2025
The stepped down a little in overnight trading, losing 0.3% against the euro and yen, 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc and sterling, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the Canadian and Australian currencies. Alternatively, South Korea’s won lost 0.4% against the dollar and even more versus the yen. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose three basis points in […] More
Dollar Revival Extended
October 8, 2025
Driven by sluggish growth and political uncertainties affecting other economies, the dollar climbed overnight by a further 0.6% against the Japanese yen and Korean won, 0.4% relative to the New Zealand dollar, 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro and 0.2% versus the Swiss franc, Turkish lira and British pound. The intra-day high in the weighted DXY dollar […] More
Many Data Releases and Central Bank Interest Rate Announcements
August 7, 2025
Reciprocal tariffs became effective today. The scale of their increase is profound, and reactions in America to the new tax are extremely polarized and aligned with political affiliations. For Trump supporters, today is a great day, heralding a large new source of fiscal revenue and a rebirth of the country’s manufacturing sector. For political opponents, […] More
More Tariff News
July 7, 2025
(184) Like so many other Mondays this year, financial markets are marching to the beat of President Trump postings on Truth Social rather than economic fundamental trends. And as typically has been the case, the postings serve a dual purpose of unveiling new and changed information about future policy but also deflecting attention away from […] More
Little Respite for Worried Investors
April 7, 2025
(197) The heavy selloff of riskier assets extended dynamically into a fresh week. President Trump has shown no inclination of blinking first on his broadly based and very large tariff hikes. Reactions by other countries have been mixed. The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield eased another basis point and is now below 4.0%. Comparable German bund […] More
Awaiting U.S. Labor Market Figures for January
February 7, 2025
The dollar is standing firm ahead of this morning’s release by the Labor Dept of last month’s jobless rate, growth in employment, and wage inflation. The greenback rose overnight by 0.3% against the yen and Swissy, 0.2% versus the euro and loonie, and 0.1% relative to the Australian and New Zealand currencies. Sterling is unchanged. […] More
Disparate Stock Market Moves
October 8, 2024
The dollar was mixed overnight, sliding 0.2% against the yen and euro, but rising 0.5% relative to the Chinese yuan, 0.4% against the Australian dollar, and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc, kiwi, peso and Turkish lira. 10-year sovereign debt yields dipped a basis point in the U.S. and Japan, held steady in Germany and Great […] More
Divergent Central Bank Signals
May 8, 2024
Three European central banks have now cut interest rates this month: the Czech National Bank by 50 basis points last Friday, the National Bank of Moldova by 15 bps yesterday and, most tellingly, the Swedish Riksbank today by 25 basis points to 3.75%. These announcements are a harbinger of coming reductions elsewhere in the region. […] More
Softer Dollar and Sovereign Debt Prices as Central Banks Not Rushing to Ease but Equities Showing Some Resilience
February 7, 2024
The dollar slid overnight by 0.3% against sterling and 0.2% relative to the euro, Canadian dollar and as measured by the DXY weighted index. A further rise in sovereign debt yields today — 4 basis points in British 10-year gilts, 3 basis points in 10-year U.S. Treasuries, and 2 basis points in German, French, Italian […] More
