New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Powell’s Renomination Reinforces Belief that Fed Interest Rate Liftoff Will Happen Sooner Rather than Later

November 23, 2021

Of the two finalists for chairperson of the Federal Reserve, Powell was considered likelier than Brainard to secure the earlier initial hike of the federal funds rate. Both candidates remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Brainard as Vice Chairman, and Biden still has three vacancies to fill and thus additionally shape future monetary […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Dollar Volatility and Inflation

November 22, 2021

The acceleration of inflation in 2021 has been broadly experienced across the world and remarkable in its suddenness. Year-on-year inflation rates last December were both low and more tightly bunched than now. In the cases of Japan, Switzerland and the euro area, inflation was lower than zero back then at -1.2%, -0.8% and -0.3%, respectively. […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

A Second Hike of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate

November 24, 2021

An initial OCR increase of 25 basis points had been done in October, and such has been followed by a second hike of same size to 0.75%. The rate had been previouslyat a record low of 0.25% from mid-March 2020.  A released statement sees continuing reductions in monetary stimulus. Capacity pressures have continued to tighten. […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

Japan Bucking the 2021 Trend to Higher Inflation Around the World

November 19, 2021

The sharper-than-forecast rise of inflation almost everywhere and recent further intensification of price pressures in many places has been a big mystery and source of great dispute over the trend’s future evolution. A centrally dynamic role of oil and food prices, as was the case in the 1970s, is magnifying inflationary fears, but there are […] Read Article

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

European Consumer Confidence Stumbles on Covid Resurgence

November 22, 2021

Market movement has been limited this Monday. The most notable development has been a net 0.3% drop in the net price of oil. WTI crude is down 0.3% but about a dollar above the intra-day seven-week low of $74.68 per barrel. The weighted DXY dollar index has edged up 0.1% but is currently close to […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: November 20 – 26, 2021

November 19, 2021

Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Sweden, New Zealand, South Africa, China, Israel, and Sri Lanka. Minutes from the last policy meetings of the FOMC and European Central Bank are to be published, as will Sweden’s Monetary Policy Report. Two central bankers speaking publicly will be Haskel of the Bank of England and […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Ending Pre-Thanksgiving Week on a Strong Note, but Equities and Bond Yields Wobbly

November 19, 2021

The weighted DXY dollar index advanced 0.4% overnight, climbing 0.7% against the euro, 1.2% versus the Turkish lira, 0.5% relative to the Australian dollar, kiwi and sterling, 0.4% vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar but just 0.1% against the Swiss franc, which traditionally thrives when global inflation becomes a concern. News today on the Covid-19 front has […] More

Central Bank Watch

Turkish Central Bank Rate Cut

November 18, 2021

Turkish monetary policy has become very politicized this year, conforming to the wishes of President Erdogan’s view that inflation conforms positively, not inversely, to changes in the central bank interest rates. Erdogan has secured his desired downtrend in Turkey’s one-week repo rate by replacing policymakers at the Central Bank of Turkey who disagreed with him. […] More

Central Bank Watch

South African Interest Rate Hike

November 18, 2021

The South Africa Reserve Bank’s repo rate was increased by 25 basis points to 3.75% from a record low of 3.5% in place since April 2020. The approved decision passed by a narrow 3-2 vote by members of the Monetary Policy Committee. Analysts had been anticipating an initial rate hike this month. CPI inflation has […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

A Diversity of Central Bank Rate Decisions… Dollar and Equities Mixed

November 18, 2021

Central bank officials today cut Turkey’s one-week repo rate by 100 basis points, left record-low policy interest rates unchanged in the Philippines and Indonesia, and are widely expected to announce an interest rate hike in South Africa. This year’s unexpectedly sharp acceleration of inflation to multi-year and multi-decade highs around the world has overshadowed Covid […] More

Central Bank Watch

Icelandic Central Bank Rate Hike

November 17, 2021

The Central Bank of Iceland‘s policy interest rate has also been raised multiple times in response to the recent acceleration of inflation. Today’s hike to 2.0% from 1.5% increased the ante following 25-basis point advances in May, August, and October. “The inflation outlook has deteriorated somewhat since August, owing in part to more persistent global […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Persistent Global Pressure on Prices, Some More Central Bank Hikes, and the Dollar Touches Its Firmest Level Since July 2020

November 17, 2021

The weighted DXY dollar index touched 96.24 overnight, its strongest level since the first week of July 2020, but has settled back to show no net changed. Relative to Tuesday closing levels, the dollar is down 0.3% relative to the kiwi, yuan, peso, and sterling and by 0.1% vis-a-vis the euro, yen and loonie. The […] More

Central Bank Watch

A Sixth Hungarian Central Bank Rate Hike

November 16, 2021

Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s base rate was raised 30 basis points today to 2.1%. The increase and its size matched expectations. This cycle of gradual increases began in June, hasn’t missed a month, and thus far totals 150 basis points. More tightening is to be expected, as officials served notice that projected inflation in 2022 will […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Xi/Biden, Central Banking Signals, and a Big Line-Up of U.S. Data Releases Today

November 16, 2021

The virtual summit between the Presidents of China and the United States exceeded three hours. The talks were reportedly civil but didn’t yield newsworthy compromises on the key contentious issues. The Fed and Bank of England seem closer to an interest rate lift-off than the European Central Bank or Bank of Japan. Minutes published from […] More

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