April 21, 2026
The dollar rose 0.1-0.2% overnight. Equities in Asia closed up 2.7% in South Korea, 1.8% in Taiwan, 1.0% in India, and 0.9% in Japan and Singapore. In Indonesia where a 2-day monetary policy review began amid concerns about depleted international reserves, share prices bucked the upward trend and closed 0.5% lower. Stock markets are up […] Read Article
April 17, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in China, Indonesia, Turkey, Russian, Kazakhstan and the Philippines. Breeden of the Bank of England, Schlegel of the Swiss National Bank, and Dutch Central Bank President Sleijpen and therefore member of the ECB Governing Council have public speaking engagements in the period. Confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking […] Read Article
April 15, 2026
One way the Federal Open Market Committee prepares for each of the eight scheduled reviews of monetary policy per year is to have each of the twelve Districts conduct a survey of businesses in their jurisdiction to gauge regional trends in economic activity, pricing pressure, labor market conditions since the prior meeting. The finding are […] Read Article
March 31, 2026
March was dominated by wild daily and intra-daily swings in financial vital signs as sentiment about the outcome and duration of the Middle Eastern war swung with each news flash, and investors tried to figure out the implications for the path of energy prices, general inflation, and the shape of Middle East oil facilities when […] Read Article
April 20, 2026
(143) Weekends have been full of surprises in the Middle East war, and this past one was no exception. Late last week had experienced a large drop in oil prices and renewed interest in riskier assets. Israel had stopped bombing southern Lebanon, paving the way for resumed peace talks between Iran and the United States […] More
April 17, 2026
On a day with very few economic data releases, world financial markets this Friday have been dominated by efforts to end the 49-day-old Middle Eastern war. Known facts are 1) that a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon seems to be holding; 2) shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains very minimal; and 3) […] More
April 16, 2026
The Middle East’s future evolution remains unclear. Both sides want to avoid a resumption of the fight but still can’t find mutually acceptable terms for an extended peace. Equally uncertain is the economic repercussions of the war, which will be felt in most countries but in asymmetric ways. Barring a fresh turn for the worse, […] More
April 15, 2026
President Trump continues to dangle the chances of a deal with Iran happening soon and the April 21st ceasefire deadline getting extended. Dual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are containing shipping traffic through the water body to a minimum but reportedly not zero. After several days with wide swings in financial market values, investors […] More
April 14, 2026
Monetary policy in Singapore, which subordinates interest rates to whatever it takes to achieve a target for the economy’s currency, has been tightened for the first time since April 2022. Policy is reviewed on a quarterly basis and was last changed in January and April of 2025 when slight easings were implemented. Three parameters define […] More
April 14, 2026
President Trump claims that Iranian negotiators want to resume negotiations to end the Middle East war. While not the most reliable source, investors have chosen to give his upbeat pronouncement the benefit of the doubt this Tuesday. The price of oil is lower, and an appetite for riskier assets has improved. The $97.43 price of […] More
April 13, 2026
(144) It took only a 21-hour single session of Peace talks for the American side, headed by VP Vance, to conclude there was no hope of success. Diplomatic talks after major wars tend to be quite extended and complicated. For example, the Treaty of Paris that formally ended the American Revolution took 17 months to […] More
April 10, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary stances will be reviewed in Singapore and Turkey. Williams, Goolsbee and Barkin are some of the Federal Reserve officials speaking publicly during the period. So will Governor Bailey and MPC members Greene and Taylor of the Bank of England, Deputy Governor Hauser and Assistant Governor Hunter of the Reserve Bank of Australia […] More
April 10, 2026
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains minimal, and Iran is insisting that Israel’s continuing assault on Lebanon must be part of the discussion as a condition of Iranian participating in resumed peace talks with a U.S. delegation to be headed by VP Vance in Islamabad, Pakistan beginning tomorrow. The behavior of world financial […] More
April 9, 2026
The U.S./Iranian ceasefire got off to a very shaky start. Amazingly, Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon was left out of the deal at least if the American narrative is to be believed. Iran is recounting a different story and frankly a more credible rendition of what was agreed. Not only did Israel’s assault of southern Lebanon […] More
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