March 27, 2026
Ten-year sovereign debt yields are winding up the final full week of March near their highest levels of the 21st century in Japan and 15-18 year peaks in Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Just today has seen the yields advance by 11 basis points in the U.K. and Japan, 9 bps in Italy, 6 […] Read Article
March 27, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary stances will be reviewed in Israel, Colombia and Jamaica. Minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia policy review and a summary of the last Bank of Japan Board meeting get published. Goolsbee, Williams and Musalem of the Fed, Swiss National Bank President Sleijen, and ECB Governing Council member Cipollone speak publicly. […] Read Article
March 26, 2026
After holding it overnight interbank interest rate at 11.25% for the twelve months ending in March 2024, Bank of Mexico policymakers cut such by 125 basis points during the balance of 2024 and by a further 300 bps last year, reaching 7.0% after their final review in December. In February at their first meeting of […] Read Article
March 20, 2026
With key U.S. stock market indices fast approaching correction status, I asked Google AI Overview how often previous corrections of the S&P 500 (defined as a cumulative high-to-low movement of at least 10%) have evolved into a bear market, where the requirement is a decline of 20% or more. I learned that Corrections are actually […] Read Article
March 26, 2026
The Middle Eastern war may be about to become much fiercer. President Trump’s plea for Iran to accept a deal continues to be rebuffed, and the red-line demands of each side are miles apart. Meanwhile, Israel claims to have killed another top Iranian official, this time the naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, who has been overseeing […] More
March 25, 2026
So far, Iran shows little sign of deescalating, and the all-import Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut to shipping traffic. Nevertheless, as of 08:15 EDT, the dollar had risen overnight by 0.5% against the Australian dollar, 0.3% relative to the kiwi, 0.2% versus the yen and Canadian currency, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the euro, Swiss franc, […] More
March 24, 2026
Justification for the joint U.S. and Israeli war against Iran and the choice of February 28th for the start of their attack, a stage that involved leadership replacement by assassination of high Iranian officials, rested in large part on the assertion that Iran, which has perennially sponsored terrorism in the region and wider world, had […] More
March 24, 2026
The Middle Eastern war continues to play out on many different planes. The actual conflict has been fierce and continues to suck in a widening range of countries in the region. Considerable property damage is occurring, some that may take extended time to repair. Claimed casualties are running heavily in favor of the U.S. and […] More
March 23, 2026
(147) Late today was to have been the deadline for a massive bombing operation of Iranian oil facility sites if Iran didn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping traffic. The ultimatum had been made two days ago, but with just hours left before the threatened operation, President Trump suddenly pushed the threatened […] More
March 20, 2026
Central Banks: Far fewer monetary policy reviews are scheduled next week than this one. Meetings in the coming period are planned in Mexico, South Africa, Norway, Hungary and Chile. The growing speculation today that 2026 will see a number of central banks switch direction and actually raise rate will probably persist next week, especially with […] More
March 20, 2026
The other central bank rate decision today involved an as-expected 50-basis point cut in the Central Bank of Russia‘s benchmark to 15.0%, its lowest level since December 2023. From a peak of 21% reached in October 2024 and maintained until June 2025, seven reductions totaling six percentage points have now been made. Russian consumer price […] More
March 20, 2026
In overnight trading, the dollar rose 0.6% against the Japanese yen and 0.8% versus the South Korean won but slipped 0.3% relative to the Canadian dollar and 0.1% against the Swissy, euro and sterling. A five-basis point advance in the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds rises of three basis points in comparable sovereign debt yields […] More
March 19, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed to shipping traffic, and Israel and Iran have escalated the race to destroy Middle Eastern energy facilities as thoroughly as possible. Brent crude briefly hit $119 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate continues to hover a bit above $97. The escalating conflict has ripped up the script on […] More
March 18, 2026
The press release reads very much like the one seven weeks earlier. Again and as was very widely expected, the federal funds rate was left unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The insertion of a new sentence in paragraph two stating “the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain” merely states the […] More
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