Larry's Blog
March 5, 2026
Whatever the reason, there is a pattern of short-lived retirements of American presidents who presided over the country’s major wars. It starts with James Polk, a one-term president for the four years through March 4, 1849. It was on his watch that the Mexican War was fought between April 1846 and February 1848. As a […] More
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New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
March 5, 2026
As has often been the case during the Iran war, there has been other equity market reversal between Asia’s and Europe’s trading day. Stock market indices rebounded 9.6% in South Korea, 2.6% in Taiwan, 1.9% in Japan, 1.8% in Indonesia, 1.1% in India, 0.9% in Malaysia and 0.6% in China. However, markets in Germany, Italy, […] More
Tags: Beige Book, Central Bank of Malaysia, Euroland and British construction purchasing manager surveys, Euroland retail sales
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New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
March 4, 2026
A perfect storm of war, AI, and constantly fluctuating official statements regarding the middle eastern conflict is afoot for an out-of-control rumor mill. There’s been a wide reversal in market momentum during the overnight hours after an unconfirmed report that Iran intelligence officials may be attempting a back-channel communication with the United States to de-escalate […] More
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New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
March 3, 2026
All things considered, the reaction of financial markets yesterday to the quickly unfolding war in the Middle East was more muted than many had reason to expect. The media are having a hard time keeping up with the rapidly changing events, and a crisis-watcher is apt to be misled by anything but real-time breaking news. […] More
Tags: Euroland CPI, middle east war and financial markets response
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Larry's Blog
March 2, 2026
The initial currency market reaction in these early days of the war between Iran on the one hand and the U.S. and Israel on the other has been favorable to the dollar, which is attracting funds looking for financial safety. Without knowing how the conflict will evolve militarily and politically, one can imagine momentum shifting […] More
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New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
March 2, 2026
(150) Hot money flows seeking a safe haven lifted the dollar by almost a full percent on a weighted basis. Individual gains amount to 1.2% against the Swiss franc, 1.0% versus the New Zealand dollar, 0.9% to a 5-week high relative to the euro, 0.9% against the Korean won, 0.8% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar and […] More
Tags: financial market fallout from Mideast war, manufacturing PMI readings February 2026
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New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
February 27, 2026
The week of President Trump’s State of the Union Address is ending with steep losses in U.S. equities, a drop of the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.0%, a big rise in the prices of oil, gold and silver, weaker crypto, and a flat dollar. Investors are reacting to today’s unexpectedly sharp rise of U.S. producer […] More
Tags: Canadian and Swiss GDP, German and French CPI, U.S. PPI
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New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
February 26, 2026
Nvidia announced solid earnings and revenues after yesterday’s session-ending bell, but its share price did not rise in response. That set the stage for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng to lose 1.4% today, and markets in Indonesia and Singapore also absorbed losses. In contrast, stock markets in Australia and Japan rose by 0.5% today, and those […] More
Tags: Bank of Korea, Canadian current account, Euroland economic sentiment
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Central Bank Watch
February 25, 2026
The benchmark interest rate at the Bank of Thailand was cut to 1.0% today from 1.25%. This cut had not been anticipated by analysts, since a 25-bp cut had been also done at the prior policy review in December. The new rate level is the lowest since October 2022. The decision to cut was not […] More
Tags: Bank of Thailand
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New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
February 25, 2026
Aside from a 0.5% overnight rise against the yen and a 0.5% drop versus the Australian dollar, the U.S. currency is narrowly mixed, and the DXY weighted dollar index is unchanged from Tuesday’s closing value. Major U.S. equity index rises of about 0.5% in pre-open futures trading show smaller increases than many other stock exchanges. […] More
Tags: 2026 state of the union address, Bank of Thailand, Euroland CPI, Peoples Bank of China
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