New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

A Negative U.S. Jobs Surprise and Global Covid Cases Climbs Above 200 million Threshold

August 4, 2021

Wednesday brought two pieces of discouraging news. ADP’s 330k monthly estimate of private U.S. employment growth in July was only about half as much as forecasters were anticipating, down from a 2Q average of 729k per month, and the lowest increase since February. Fed officials have made clear that labor market trends will exert very […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: July 31 – August 6, 2021

July 30, 2021

Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Brazil, Thailand, Australia, India, the U.K., Czech Republic and Romania. Assorted July Purchasing Manager Surveys: Covering activities in manufacturing, services, construction, and private non-energy enterprises. Holidays and Events: will be observed Monday in Canada (Civic day) and India (bank holiday). The onset of August ushers in the […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

50 Basis Point Hike to 10% the National Bank of Georgia’s Policy Interest Rate

August 4, 2021

Officials at the National Bank of Georgia authorized this year’s third refinancing rate hike, this time by 50 basis points to 10.0%. There had also been increases of 50 bps in March and 100 bps in April. Tighter monetary policy has been necessitated by a spike in inflation to 11.9%, which is way above the […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

Negative U.S.-Minus-Ezone Manufacturing PMI Spread Widened for Second Straight Month in July

August 2, 2021

The ISM-compiled U.S. purchasing managers survey for manufacturing dropped 1.1 points last month. Declines of 6.4 point in the price component, 2.2 points in production and 1.1 points in orders outweighed a 2.0-point increase in the employment sub-index. The IHS-compiled U.S. PMI rose slightly, in contrast, from 62.1 in June to 63.4 last month. Consequently, […] Read Article

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Lacking Much Direction

August 3, 2021

The dollar drifted lower overnight, losing 0.4% against the peso and kiwi, 0.2% versus the Swiss franc, yen, Aussie dollar and sterling, and 0.1% relative to the euro and weighted DXY index. The dollar is unchanged against the yuan and 0.6% firmer against the Turkish lira. At an intra-day low of 1.15% and 1.17% currently, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Investors Upbeat In Spite of Worrisome Covid Trends

August 2, 2021

Share prices on the first business day of August in the Pacific Rim closed up 2.0% in China, 1.8% in Japan, 1.5% in Taiwan, 1.3% in Australia, 1.2% in New Zealand, 1.1% in Hong¬† Kong, and 0.7% in South Korea. Gains so far in Europe amount to 0.9% in France, 0.8% in Spain, 0.6% in […] More

Uncategorized

July 2021 in Figures

July 30, 2021

In July the dollar closed virtually unchanged from its midyear value against its DXY weighted index. The U.S. currency fell against other perceived safe havens like the yen and Swiss franc but rose 2.1% against the Australian dollar. The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 24 basis points, similar to the size of the drop in […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Up 0.2% Against Euro, yen and Weighted index on Final Business Day of July

July 30, 2021

The U.S. currency also climbed overnight by 0.3% against sterling and 0.1% relative to the Swiss franc. However, equities have dropped, especially in Japan (-1.8%), Hong Kong (-1.4%), New Zealand (-1.2%), Spain and Taiwan (each down 0.9%), but also in Indonesia (-0.8%), the U.S. (Nasdaq -0.6% and S&P 500 down 0.4%), the U.K. (-0.5%) and […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Falters

July 29, 2021

The dollar fell overnight by 0.4% against the euro, peso, Swissie, and DXY weighted index but even more versus the New Zealand dollar and Turkish lira (each 0.7%), loonie (0.6%), and yuan and sterling (each 0.5%). Lesser dollar declines of 0.3% and 0.2% occurred against the Australian dollar and Japanese yen, respectively. Equities, commodity prices, […] More

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Statement and Powell’s Press Conference

July 28, 2021

Aside from some inserted clarification regarding the timetable to tapering quantitative stimulus, little was changed in today’s FOMC statement. The economy has made progress toward these goals [of ¬†maximum employment and inflation rising to 2 percent and being on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time], and the Committee will continue to assess […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Two-Day FOMC Meeting Ends Today with Likely Same Dovish Message

July 28, 2021

Against the backdrop of rising Covid-19 infections in the United States, this isn’t the time for the Fed to express a lot of concern about inflation or to show greater urgency as official begin to contemplate a plan to taper monetary stimulus. In the three days of July 25-27, new U.S. coronavirus cases averaged 57.3k […] More

Central Bank Watch

Interest Rate Hikes in Hungary and Kyrgyzstan

July 27, 2021

A 30-basis point increase in the National Bank of Hungary’s base rate to 1.2% was larger than what analysts were predicting and represents the second such hike in a month. Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s overnight deposit rate was increased from -0.05% to +0.25%. The base rate level is now at its highest level since early 2016. […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

China Remains in the Spotlight

July 27, 2021

The Shanghai Composite equity index fell 2.3% on Monday and another 2.5% on Tuesday reflecting the deteriorating relationship between the Chinese and U.S. governments and investor fears over intensifying Sino regulations constricting the business activities of foreign companies. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has taken an even bigger blow, dropping 1.5% last Friday, 4.1% yesterday […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Weather Extremes, Covid, and Sino-U.S. Government Talks on Investors’ Minds

July 26, 2021

The starting round of high level talks between China and the United States has not gone well. Much of the world including both those countries are experiencing extreme weather conditions this summer. Talk of emerging from the Covid pandemic is looking premature as reported infections rise in many places. In the United States, such reached […] More

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