April 29, 2026
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce an unchanged federal funds target range of 3.50-3.75% at 14:00 EDT today. This is the last scheduled meeting of the Jay Powell chairmanship, although his Trump-nominated successor Kevin Warsh has not yet been confirmed by the senate. The last interest rate change was made in December. […] Read Article
April 24, 2026
Central Banks: A busy week for central bank watchers lies ahead, with scheduled monetary policy reviews in the United States, Japan, Euroland, U.K., Canada, Hungary, Ukraine, Thailand, Brazil, Pakistan and Kyrgyztan. The British, Canadian and Japanese meetings coincide with updated in-depth quarterly reports. Post-meeting press conferences will be held by Fed Chairman Powell, Bank of […] Read Article
April 29, 2026
The significant change in this FOMC statement from the last one involves the votes. Once again only Governor Miran dissented in favor of a 25-basis point cut of the federal funds target. The eleven other votes favored leaving the target unchanged at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4% where such has been since December. In addition, three of […] Read Article
March 31, 2026
March was dominated by wild daily and intra-daily swings in financial vital signs as sentiment about the outcome and duration of the Middle Eastern war swung with each news flash, and investors tried to figure out the implications for the path of energy prices, general inflation, and the shape of Middle East oil facilities when […] Read Article
April 29, 2026
The last FOMC meeting occurred only 2-1/2 weeks into the Middle Eastern war. Seven additional weeks have elapsed, and a war that was not expected to last more than five weeks, if that, is still unresolved. A ceasefire has quelled outright conflict but the economic pressure points of the war — the global price of […] More
April 28, 2026
The price West Texas Intermediate oil, now at $100.17 per barrel, is almost 4% above Monday’s closing level. Iran’s proposal, which addressed reopening the Strait of Hormuz but defers discussion of its nuclear development, never realistically had much chance of gaining Trump’s favor. The U.S. position has conditioned any reopening of the Strait on steps […] More
April 27, 2026
There’s been an unexpected decision by officials at the State Bank of Pakistan to crank up their interest rate to 11.5% from 10.5%. Pakistan’s central bank rate crested at 22.0% for a whole year until June 2024 and as CPI inflation imploded from a 38.0% in May 2023 all the way to just 0.3% in […] More
April 27, 2026
(142) The attention of financial markets quickly moved past the the failed politically motivated assassination attempt at the U.S. press corps gala on Saturday night and is focused squarely back on the Middle East war, now in its ninth week. The fresh development in that regard is a report that Iran is offering a new […] More
April 24, 2026
As expected, the Central Bank of Russia cut its key rate by a further 50 basis points to 14.5%. This was the fifth such reduction since October and brings the cumulative drop to 650 basis points since this cycle began in June 2025. At the newly reduced interest rate level, monetary policy remains restrictive when […] More
April 24, 2026
The dollar slid 0.1-0.2% overnight against major currencies but rose 0.5% against the beleaguered Indonesian rupiah. Major U.S. equity indices were lifted by better-than-presumed first-quarter corporate profits in firms such as Intel, HCA Healthcare and Procter & Gamble. Among stock exchanges in other countries, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 1.0% higher, while India’s Sensex fell 1.3%. […] More
April 23, 2026
There’s been a 25-basis point central bank interest rate hike in the Philippines, its first increase since a similarly-sized move in October 2023 that lifted the rate then to cyclical high of 6.5% where it stayed until easing commenced in August 2024. Cuts totaling 75 basis points in the second half of 2024, 125 bps […] More
April 23, 2026
Nothing encouraging has surfaced regarding a resumption of peace talks between the United States and Iran. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains stalled, and there have been more ship seizure incidents by both sides. Preliminary findings from April purchasing manager surveys and other data out today point to a big blow to business […] More
April 22, 2026
No progress has been made in breaking the U.S./Iranian impasse. Talks did not resume in Pakistan, and no timetable for when formal talks might be held has been disclosed. Each side is successfully maintaining a blockade, and the resulting shortfall in global oil supply continues to mount. A 1% overnight rise in the price of […] More
April 21, 2026
The dollar rose 0.1-0.2% overnight. Equities in Asia closed up 2.7% in South Korea, 1.8% in Taiwan, 1.0% in India, and 0.9% in Japan and Singapore. In Indonesia where a 2-day monetary policy review began amid concerns about depleted international reserves, share prices bucked the upward trend and closed 0.5% lower. Stock markets are up […] More
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