March 20, 2026
In overnight trading, the dollar rose 0.6% against the Japanese yen and 0.8% versus the South Korean won but slipped 0.3% relative to the Canadian dollar and 0.1% against the Swissy, euro and sterling. A five-basis point advance in the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds rises of three basis points in comparable sovereign debt yields […] Read Article
March 20, 2026
Central Banks: Far fewer monetary policy reviews are scheduled next week than this one. Meetings in the coming period are planned in Mexico, South Africa, Norway, Hungary and Chile. The growing speculation today that 2026 will see a number of central banks switch direction and actually raise rate will probably persist next week, especially with […] Read Article
March 20, 2026
The other central bank rate decision today involved an as-expected 50-basis point cut in the Central Bank of Russia‘s benchmark to 15.0%, its lowest level since December 2023. From a peak of 21% reached in October 2024 and maintained until June 2025, seven reductions totaling six percentage points have now been made. Russian consumer price […] Read Article
March 20, 2026
With key U.S. stock market indices fast approaching correction status, I asked Google AI Overview how often previous corrections of the S&P 500 (defined as a cumulative high-to-low movement of at least 10%) have evolved into a bear market, where the requirement is a decline of 20% or more. I learned that Corrections are actually […] Read Article
March 19, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed to shipping traffic, and Israel and Iran have escalated the race to destroy Middle Eastern energy facilities as thoroughly as possible. Brent crude briefly hit $119 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate continues to hover a bit above $97. The escalating conflict has ripped up the script on […] More
March 18, 2026
The press release reads very much like the one seven weeks earlier. Again and as was very widely expected, the federal funds rate was left unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The insertion of a new sentence in paragraph two stating “the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain” merely states the […] More
March 18, 2026
Few countries have been caught in maelstrom of the Trump administration’s policy upheavals as much as Canada. The two countries share the world’s longest border and enjoy the largest bilateral trading relationship as well. From an historically cordial relationship, the two governments have soured immensely on one another. Trump’s massive changes and their unpredictability represent […] More
March 18, 2026
The Federal Reserve is not expected to change its policy interest rate at this second scheduled review of 2026 and the next to last one that will be chaired by Jerome Powell. Some dissenting votes seem likely, and the risk of dissent is not entirely one sided because U.S. growth is slowing while inflation risks […] More
March 18, 2026
Policymakers at the Central Bank of Iceland today followed Australia’s lead yesterday, raising the Icelandic 7-day term rate by 25 basis points in a 3-2 decision that included two dissents favoring an increase of 50 basis points. It was the bank’s first rate increase since August 2023, and the new rate level becomes 7.5%, which […] More
March 18, 2026
There’s been scant net movement in the dollar overnight. The Federal Open Market Committee is not expected to change the 3.5-3.75% federal funds target range, but today’s meeting has created considerable attention. It’s Chairman Powell’s next-to-last meeting as chairman, but he could stay on the committee into 2028 when his 14-year term as an at-large […] More
March 17, 2026
By a narrow 5-4 vote, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia pulled the trigger a a second consecutive 25-basis point hike of the Official Cash Rate, which at 4.10% will now represent its greatest elevation in ten months. Australian CPI inflation last month of 3.8% was above expectations and the central bank’s target […] More
March 17, 2026
In overnight financial market action, The dollar has dipped 0.3% against the Australian dollar following a rise in Australia’s Officials Cash Rate. The dollar is also down 0.2% versus the Mexican peso, and by 0.1% relative to the euro, Swissy and sterling but flat against the yen following more hints from Japan’s finance minister of […] More
March 16, 2026
National inflationary trends this decade have by and large followed a similar pattern. Consumer price inflation peaked in June 2022 at 9.1% in the United States, at 8.1% in Canada and at 10.6% in Euroland. The British and Turkish CPI peaks of 11.1% and 85.5% happened in October 2022. Swiss inflation crested at 3.5% a […] More
March 16, 2026
(148) But right now, markets have responded positively to stronger-than-projected Chinese data while awaiting today’s release of U.S. industrial production. The Iran War narrative is meanwhile focused on whether President Trump will declare America’s main goals accomplished and pull out or decided to prolong the fight until there is a major downward break in oil […] More
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