March 3, 2026
All things considered, the reaction of financial markets yesterday to the quickly unfolding war in the Middle East was more muted than many had reason to expect. The media are having a hard time keeping up with the rapidly changing events, and a crisis-watcher is apt to be misled by anything but real-time breaking news. […] Read Article
February 20, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary policy stances will be reviewed in South Korea, Israel, Thailand, Hungary, Kyrgyzstan and Jamaica. Goolsbee and Musalem of the Federal Reserve, Takada of the Bank of Japan and Governor Bullock of the Reserve Bank of Australia have public speaking engagements. Events and Holidays: U.S. President Trump presents his State of the Union […] Read Article
February 25, 2026
The benchmark interest rate at the Bank of Thailand was cut to 1.0% today from 1.25%. This cut had not been anticipated by analysts, since a 25-bp cut had been also done at the prior policy review in December. The new rate level is the lowest since October 2022. The decision to cut was not […] Read Article
February 28, 2026
U.S.-generated uncertainty, which had been so prominent in 2025, somehow managed to build to an even greater extent in the first month of President Trump’s second term. Despite being the creator of the chaos, America’s currency benefited from safe-haven demand, so losses versus currencies against which the dollar fell during February were comparatively muted. The […] Read Article
March 2, 2026
The initial currency market reaction in these early days of the war between Iran on the one hand and the U.S. and Israel on the other has been favorable to the dollar, which is attracting funds looking for financial safety. Without knowing how the conflict will evolve militarily and politically, one can imagine momentum shifting […] More
March 2, 2026
(150) Hot money flows seeking a safe haven lifted the dollar by almost a full percent on a weighted basis. Individual gains amount to 1.2% against the Swiss franc, 1.0% versus the New Zealand dollar, 0.9% to a 5-week high relative to the euro, 0.9% against the Korean won, 0.8% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar and […] More
February 27, 2026
The week of President Trump’s State of the Union Address is ending with steep losses in U.S. equities, a drop of the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.0%, a big rise in the prices of oil, gold and silver, weaker crypto, and a flat dollar. Investors are reacting to today’s unexpectedly sharp rise of U.S. producer […] More
February 26, 2026
Nvidia announced solid earnings and revenues after yesterday’s session-ending bell, but its share price did not rise in response. That set the stage for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng to lose 1.4% today, and markets in Indonesia and Singapore also absorbed losses. In contrast, stock markets in Australia and Japan rose by 0.5% today, and those […] More
February 25, 2026
Aside from a 0.5% overnight rise against the yen and a 0.5% drop versus the Australian dollar, the U.S. currency is narrowly mixed, and the DXY weighted dollar index is unchanged from Tuesday’s closing value. Major U.S. equity index rises of about 0.5% in pre-open futures trading show smaller increases than many other stock exchanges. […] More
February 24, 2026
The National Bank of Krygyzstan’s policy interest rate was hiked late yesterday by another full percentage point and now becomes 12.0%, its highest level since April 2024. That was the fourth increase since April 2024, bringing the cumulative climb since then to three full percentage points. CPI inflation in the economy exceeds the 5-7% target […] More
February 24, 2026
Holidays welcoming the lunar year of the horse are over. Japan’s market reopened too after Monday’s Emperor’s Birthday holiday, and folks in the northeast corridor of the United States are digging out from a brutal blizzard and stumbling back to work. Fortunately, this Tuesday has been short on data and fresh news. President Trump will […] More
February 23, 2026
Today’s reduction to 5.50% from 5.75% was the first cut in nine months. It was agreed upon unanimously by members of the Bank of Jamaica‘s Monetary Policy Committee and, according to a released statement, justified because “the direct impact of Hurricane Melissa on inflation was less severe than initially anticipated. A faster-than-expected improvement in agricultural […] More
February 23, 2026
(151) Trading volume in the U.S. today will be muted by a blizzard affecting tens of millions in the Northeast corridor. Stock markets in Japan and China were shut by the Emperor’s Birthday holiday and the tail end of Lunar New Year observances, respectively. The Middle East is on high alert of what appears to […] More
February 20, 2026
The dollar was narrowly mixed just prior to the eagerly awaited twin-bill of U.S. economic data releases, unchanged against the euro and loonie, 0.3% higher relative to New Zealand’s currency, 0.3% stronger against the Mexican peso, and 0.1% firmer relative to the yen and Swiss franc. Ten-year sovereign debt yields had fallen overnight by three […] More
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