May 15, 2026
The meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents exuded friendly optics but failed to allay fears about the continuing shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and rising inflationary pressures felt around the world. More military confrontations were reported today from the Middle East. The dollar wore its refuge currency crown as the 11th week of […] Read Article
May 8, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in Romania and Peru. Hammack, Goolsbee and Williams have speaking engagements. So do Cipollone of the ECB and Mann of the Bank of England. A summary of the recent Bank of Japan board meeting will be published. U.S. Data Releases: Producer prices, retail sales, import prices, small business […] Read Article
May 8, 2026
The Bank of Mexico’s interest rate cut announced later yesterday had been expected but was decided by the narrowest of margins, three ayes to two nos. The bank’s statement of explanation concedes “headline inflation expectations for the end of 2026 rose while those for longer terms remained relatively stable at levels above target. Headline inflation […] Read Article
April 30, 2026
A second full month has now passed without an end to the Middle East war that had been projected initially as likely to last only a few weeks. In March with world energy prices soaring like it was 1974, 1979 or the late summer of 1990, financial markets experienced a significant drop in the appetite […] Read Article
May 14, 2026
Trump seemingly didn’t repel President Xi’s warning that the two governments would have a big problem if the U.S. interfered with Chinese policy toward Taiwan. After that, the two leaders got along well, and several business deals were announced. Trump claimed Xi’s support for the need to open up the Strait of Hormuz, but the […] More
May 13, 2026
U.S. producer prices in April leaped 1.4% on month the most in 44 months and trippling market expectations. Year-on-year PPI inflation, which had receded from 11.7% at peak in the summer of 2022 to a mere 0.3% in mid-2023 and which began this year at 3.1% in January, increased 1.7 percentage points to a 49-month […] More
May 12, 2026
Ten-year sovereign debt yields have climbed further so far this Tuesday by a dozen basis points in Great Britain, nine bps in Italy, eight bps in France and Germany, seven bps in Spain, five bps in Switzerland, and four bps in the U.S., Japan and Australia. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is back above the […] More
May 11, 2026
(140) Developments in the U.S./Iranian stand-off seem to be exerting lessening influence on financial markets. The U.S. president called Iran’s response to his peace proposal “totally unacceptable” and warned that ceasefire is on “life support.” The dollar, which is supposed to rise when geopolitics grow tense, gained a mere 0.1% against the euro and sterling […] More
May 8, 2026
In the Bizzaro landscape that has surrounded the Hormuz Strait impasse, the biggest clash between the U.S. and Iran in the current cease-fire followed shortly after hopeful words from President Trump that a deal to reopen that critical water passage may be reached soon. The U.S. attack on Iranian drone facilities clearly deals a blow […] More
May 7, 2026
In Moldova where CPI inflation rose to 5.8% in March from 4.9% two months earlier, officials felt that they could not merely wait and see as many other monetary authorities are doing. A 150-basis point interest rate hike to 6.5% at the National Bank of Moldova today restores the peak level of restraint that had […] More
May 7, 2026
The softer dollar, stock market rallies and lower long-term interest rates that have occurred this week rest heavily on the premise that political leaders in the United States and Iran now have strong incentives to strike a deal after absorbing considerable pain from their ten-week-old war, rising energy costs and voter disapproval of President Trump […] More
May 6, 2026
The National Bank of Georgia raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% today. That was the first increase since a 50-basis point hike to 11.0% in March of 2022, right after Russia invaded nearby Ukraine. A release statement proclaims that the decision ” is aimed at keeping inflation expectations firmly anchored […] More
May 6, 2026
President Trump paused the confrontational program of militarily escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz in opposition to the Iranian-imposed blockade. He claimed progress toward a peace deal from revised details that Iran reportedly offered. The U.S. blockade will continue until a deal is finalized. Once trade is again going through the Strait without military […] More
May 5, 2026
After three straight 25-basis point increases of the Reserve Bank of Australia‘s Official Cash Rate, the rate level of 4.35% is back to this decade’s high maintained from November 2023 until February 2025 and matches the otherwise most restrictive level since early 2011. Australian consumer price inflation of 4.7% stands at a 30-month high. A […] More
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