New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Anticipating A Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike on This 34th Anniversary of Britain’s Black Wednesday

September 16, 2026

The Federal Reserve has not raised its targeted interest rate since September 2023, but financial markets are placing very high odds on that streak ending three hours from now. Coincidentally, this likely directional reversal comes on the 34th anniversary of what arguably was one of the most memorable currency market events of the floating dollar […] Read Article

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

A Comparison of U.S., Euroland and Japanese Growth and Inflation

September 8, 2026

The promise of the Trump presidency to make America greater hasn’t been fulfilled yet. U.S. real GDP had expanded 2.8% in 2024, the year he was reelected to a non-consecutive second term. In 2024, economic growth had been substantially weaker in both Japan (-0.2%) and Euroland (+0.9%) than in the United States. U.S. economic growth […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

FOMC Statement, Updated Forecasts and Press Conference

September 16, 2026

In line with a nearly universally held consensus, the federal funds target was raised by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.00%. This tightening was the first change of Kevin Warsh Fed chairmanship and the first rate increase since July  2023. The U.S. still has elevated inflation and solid economic activity that rests on […] Read Article

Deeper Analysis

August 2026 in Figures

September 6, 2026

The back-and-forth developments from the war between Iran on the one hand and the United States and Israel on the other chugged on without resolution during August. The bottom line from an economic standpoint is that the price of oil climbed 6.5% on top of a July increase of more than 20%, ending up around […] Read Article

Central Bank Watch

Rate Changes at Central Banks in Armenia and Angola

September 15, 2026

The Central Bank of Armenia’s refinancing rate has been increased to 6.75% from 6.50%, reversing a 25-basis point cut implemented last December. The rate had been as high as 10.75% in the first half of 2023. From a low point of -1.7% early in 2024, consumer price inflation has re-accelerated to 4.4%. Officials target medium-term […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Trouble City So Long As Oil Price Rise Extends

September 15, 2026

The Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices climbed by a further 2.4% and 2.8% overnight. The Middle East’s stalemate keeps subjecting interest rates to upward pressure. The 30-year, 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields are 1, 1, and 2 basis  points higher than yesterday, while ten-year sovereign debt yields in other economies have […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Oil Price Stranglehold on Financial Markets Tightens Further

September 14, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz remains all but shut, and now Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline has been forced to close as well. The Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices of crude oil both jumped slightly more than 4.0% to start this week, increasing the perceived odds that central banks including the Federal Reserve, which reviews […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Investors More Confident about a Federal Funds Target Rate Hike Next Week

September 11, 2026

Although U.S. August consumer price data could have been worse, the report packed enough warning signs to leave investors more convinced that the FOMC will raise its interest rate target for the first time since July 2023. The overall CPI index increased 0.4% month-on-month, most since April, and a core CPI increase to 0.3% above […] More

Central Bank Watch

Rate Hike in Euroland But Central Bank Rates Left Unchanged in Serbia and Turkey

September 10, 2026

Central bank rate announcements today by the European Central Bank, National Bank of Serbia and Central Bank of Turkey each link policy closely to uncertainty created by the conflict between the United States and Iran. The ECB’s trio of policy interest rates was raised by 25 basis points as markets were widely expecting. The all-important […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Another Rise in Oil Prices Sends Equities Lower and Bond Yields Higher

September 10, 2026

The price of oil measured by both Brent (+5.3%) and West Texas Intermediate (+5.0% to $101 per barrel) is in triple-digit territory for the first time since mid-May. The Iranian allied Houthis scored a major tactical advantage in the Middle East war, Saudi Arabian oil production has been squeezed to a 35-year low, and the […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Oil Price Rise Extends Further, Sending Market Interest Rates Higher

September 9, 2026

The Middle Eastern war has settled into a nasty game of chicken as both sides escalate their military attacks. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are each over 3.0% higher today alone at $101.15 and $96.37 per barrel. In turn, 10-year sovereign debt yields today so far have risen nine basis points in […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Concerning News

September 8, 2026

The Middle Eastern war has taken a turn for the worse. Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia have damaged energy infrastructure, and the $93.47 current price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is more than 2.0% higher so far today. Israeli attacks in Lebanon have intensified, and the U.S. tariff war with neighboring Canada is more […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Monday Recap: Fading Peace Hopes, September Interest Rate Hike Expectations, Revised Euroland GDP and North American Holiday Closures

September 7, 2026

(123) Like so many other weekends this year, developments around the Strait of Hormuz did not support claims that progress is being made on the diplomatic front. Oil prices are around 1% higher than last week’s closing levels. Speculation is high that central bank interest rates will be lifted later this month at both the […] More

Central Bank Watch

National Bank of Kazakhstan Base Rate Cut By 50 Basis Points

September 4, 2026

The National Bank of Kazakhstan’s scheduled policy review sent a mixed message, cutting the base rate by 50 basis points to 16.25% rather than 25 bps as was expected but also signaling hesitation against further reductions when looking ahead. The favorable dynamics of current inflation and inflation expectations created room to lower the base rate […] More

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