July 22, 2026
The Trump Administration has no inclination to resume talks so long as the Houthi threat to halt traffic out of the Red Sea remains. Resumed military conflict has now stretched to 11 days, and this geopolitical purgatory is getting mimicked by oscillating financial market movements from one day to the next. The lurches haven’t necessarily […] Read Article
July 17, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary authorities at the European Central Bank and in Indonesia, Turkey, Hungary, South Africa, China, Russia and Kazakhstan will be reviewing their policy interest rates. ECB President holds a press conference. Special Event: British Prime minister resigns on Monday and will be succeeded by the new Labour Party leader Andy Burnham. The new […] Read Article
July 21, 2026
The National Bank of Hungary’s key interest rate today underwent its second 25-basis point reduction in a row. The decision, albeit not without some risk, was the expected one and accompanied by hint of yet another cut in August. The argument for monetary easing is that Hungarian consumer price inflation slowed further in June to […] Read Article
July 20, 2026
After today’s morning rundown of news, data releases and financial market changes, Canada released June consumer price figures, showing the biggest month-on-month drop (-0.4%) since the Covid-distorted month of April 2020 and a 0.4 percentage point slowdown in the 12-month rate of increase to 2.8%. That level exceeded the 2.0% target for the ninth time […] Read Article
July 21, 2026
Iran and the United States traded military strikes for a tenth straight day even as lagged economic data underscore the economic benefits of the last ceasefire. Meanwhile, market participants wonder how much longer central banks will wait while the war remains unresolved. The current price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, $84.60 per barrel, represents […] More
July 20, 2026
Fed Chairman Warsh fully embraces the mission of price stability that the congress has assigned to the Federal Reserve but aims to implement vast modifications to how the central bank pursues its mission. Five broad task forces have been set up to broadly review and make radical changes in a wide range of areas towards […] More
July 20, 2026
(130) If one listens to the revelations of diplomatic sources, a breakthrough to secure peace is just around the corner. This low chatter has been around since the war began in late February, and it’s intent seemingly has been to contain upward pressure on oil prices and to maintain hope in world financial markets. As […] More
July 17, 2026
With wars in the Middle East hopelessly stalemated and central bankers proceeding with caution in responding to elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, the world financial community has turned its attention to Artificial Intelligence for fresh material from which to react. What investors see has created alarm: enormous business spending to build data centers intended […] More
July 16, 2026
In a widely expected action and by a unanimous vote, the central bank rate in one country, South Korea, has been raised for the first time since January 2023 (see my review). In another (New Zealand), which on July 8th experienced its first rate tightening since May 2023, a key central bank official said more […] More
July 15, 2026
The Bank of Korea Board decided unanimously to raise the one-week repo rate to 2.75% from 2.50%, noting that inflation is likely to stay above the 2.0% target for “a considerable time,”citing improve economic demand, and expressing some concern about the won, housing price inflation and household debt. The statement of explanation concludes that officials […] More
July 15, 2026
The twin wars between Russia and Ukraine and over the Strait of Hormuz are escalating and remain stalemated. The price of WTI oil is around $80 per barrel and 0.8% higher than yesterday. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will be reprising yesterday’s congressional testimony, this time before the Senate Banking Committee. Unlike earlier this decade, he […] More
July 14, 2026
The price of WTI crude oil reached as high as $81.27 overnight, it’s most elevated level in 7 weeks and up around 12% in just under two days. U.S. consumer price data from June due in less than a half hour are expected to reflect sharply lower energy costs that are now highly outdated. Investors […] More
July 13, 2026
(131) U.S. and Iranian officials are telling different narratives about latest developments in their war. What is known is that the opponents have traded strikes again. Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed, while U.S. officials claim traffic through the passage is happening. When in doubt, it pays to watch what the price of […] More
July 10, 2026
Central Banks: The Bank of Korea and Bank of Canada will be conducting reviews of monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh testifies on monetary policy and the U.S. economy before the House Banking Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. The Fed Beige Book and Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report […] More
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