April 16, 2026
The Middle East’s future evolution remains unclear. Both sides want to avoid a resumption of the fight but still can’t find mutually acceptable terms for an extended peace. Equally uncertain is the economic repercussions of the war, which will be felt in most countries but in asymmetric ways. Barring a fresh turn for the worse, […] Read Article
April 10, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary stances will be reviewed in Singapore and Turkey. Williams, Goolsbee and Barkin are some of the Federal Reserve officials speaking publicly during the period. So will Governor Bailey and MPC members Greene and Taylor of the Bank of England, Deputy Governor Hauser and Assistant Governor Hunter of the Reserve Bank of Australia […] Read Article
April 15, 2026
One way the Federal Open Market Committee prepares for each of the eight scheduled reviews of monetary policy per year is to have each of the twelve Districts conduct a survey of businesses in their jurisdiction to gauge regional trends in economic activity, pricing pressure, labor market conditions since the prior meeting. The finding are […] Read Article
March 31, 2026
March was dominated by wild daily and intra-daily swings in financial vital signs as sentiment about the outcome and duration of the Middle Eastern war swung with each news flash, and investors tried to figure out the implications for the path of energy prices, general inflation, and the shape of Middle East oil facilities when […] Read Article
April 15, 2026
President Trump continues to dangle the chances of a deal with Iran happening soon and the April 21st ceasefire deadline getting extended. Dual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are containing shipping traffic through the water body to a minimum but reportedly not zero. After several days with wide swings in financial market values, investors […] More
April 14, 2026
Monetary policy in Singapore, which subordinates interest rates to whatever it takes to achieve a target for the economy’s currency, has been tightened for the first time since April 2022. Policy is reviewed on a quarterly basis and was last changed in January and April of 2025 when slight easings were implemented. Three parameters define […] More
April 14, 2026
President Trump claims that Iranian negotiators want to resume negotiations to end the Middle East war. While not the most reliable source, investors have chosen to give his upbeat pronouncement the benefit of the doubt this Tuesday. The price of oil is lower, and an appetite for riskier assets has improved. The $97.43 price of […] More
April 13, 2026
(144) It took only a 21-hour single session of Peace talks for the American side, headed by VP Vance, to conclude there was no hope of success. Diplomatic talks after major wars tend to be quite extended and complicated. For example, the Treaty of Paris that formally ended the American Revolution took 17 months to […] More
April 10, 2026
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains minimal, and Iran is insisting that Israel’s continuing assault on Lebanon must be part of the discussion as a condition of Iranian participating in resumed peace talks with a U.S. delegation to be headed by VP Vance in Islamabad, Pakistan beginning tomorrow. The behavior of world financial […] More
April 9, 2026
The U.S./Iranian ceasefire got off to a very shaky start. Amazingly, Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon was left out of the deal at least if the American narrative is to be believed. Iran is recounting a different story and frankly a more credible rendition of what was agreed. Not only did Israel’s assault of southern Lebanon […] More
April 8, 2026
Although the evolution of the Middle East war beyond April 22 remains very uncertain, world financial markets sharply reversed prior trends, choosing to disregard the remaining hurdles that must be overcome to secure peace beyond the two-week ceasefire as well as immense supply disruptions that will be difficult to untangle. The extent of the major […] More
April 7, 2026
The deadline for Iran to meet all of Trump’s demands is now just twelve hours away. Four hours of unprecedentedly massive destruction to the country’s power and bridge infrastructure will ensue. ….Or the U.S. president might move the goal posts and reset the clock, as he’s done before. In the meantime as this state of […] More
April 6, 2026
(145) Most of Europe and many other markets (for example, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain, Portugal and the Netherlands) remain closed for Easter Monday. These closures and a very thin data release menu have muted trading volume. The United States is not one of the countries still closed […] More
April 3, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in South Korea, India, New Zealand, Serbia, Poland, Romania and Peru. FOMC minutes get published, and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks publicly. Easter Monday Holiday: will be observed in several countries such as New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland, Germany, France, Italy, Canada and Great Britain. Purchasing Manager Surveys: Manufacturing, […] More
Currency Thoughts has evolved from a blog to a full-functioning website. This new design provides easier access to your favorite features and new capabilities to accept ads. In the future, it will be possible to register to accept emailed updates.
Posts