September 29, 2023
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 4.55% just prior to 08:30 EDT, down from Thursday’s intra-day and 194-month high of 4.68%. This respite was aided by some remarks from Fed officials suggesting that coming rate moves have not been decided yet. German, French, Spanish and Italian 10-year sovereign debt yields are 7-8 basis points […] Read Article
September 29, 2023
Central Banks: Interest rate policies will be reviewed in Australia, New Zealand, India, Iceland, Romania and Poland. The Bank of Japan publishes results of its quarterly survey of corporate conditions and expectations. Holidays and Events: Chinese markets will be shut all week in observance of the 74th anniversary of the Communist revolution. One more year […] Read Article
September 27, 2023
The Bank of Thailand surprised central bank watchers with yet another unanimous 25-basis point interest rate hike to a ten-year high of 2.50%. The rate benchmark had been 0.50% from May 2020 until an initial 25-bp increase in August 2022, and the latest on-year increase of CPI inflation (0.9%) remained below the target corridor of […] Read Article
September 20, 2023
FOMC members voted unanimously not to increase the federal funds rate at their sixth scheduled monetary policy review of 2023, and they signaled that at the end of this year the rate is likely to be only 25 basis points higher than now. The big surprise to Fed officials regarding how the U.S. economy has […] Read Article
September 28, 2023
Oil inventory data on Wednesday sent the price of West Texas Intermediate up to a 14-month high of $95.03 per barrel overnight, but the price subsequently settled back and is currently 0.5% below yesterday’s close. Investors or on tenterhooks to see where the oil price heads next. An additional concern, which has buttressed sovereign debt […] More
September 27, 2023
German consumer confidence dropped to a 6-month low in late September with a depressed reading of -26.5. French consumer confidence fell two points to a 4-month low of 83 in September, well below its long-term mean of 100. At -11.5, Finnish consumer sentiment slid 3.5 points in September to its weakest value since February. Business […] More
September 26, 2023
The U.S. is careening toward a government shutdown that could tarnish its credit rating. Kashkari and Bowman are the latest Fed officials to warn of likely interest rate hikes next quarter. Although down 0.7% so far today, the high price of WTI oil, which touched $91.5 per barrel last week, remains a threat to the […] More
September 22, 2023
Central Banks: In addition to the release of Bank of Japan Board meeting minutes, monetary policies will be reviewed in the Czech Republic, Colombia, Mexico, Hungary and Thailand. Special Event: In the coming final week of the third quarter and U.S. fiscal year, market attention will become increasingly focused on efforts to avert a government […] More
September 22, 2023
The Swedish Riksbank‘s executive board engineered a 25-basis point interest rate hike to 4.0% today, claiming that “inflationary pressures in the Swedish economy are still too high.” That compares with a zero percent rate at the start of the second quarter of 2022 and -0.50% in November 2018. Swedish inflation of 7.5% is far […] More
September 22, 2023
Preliminary September purchasing manager survey results out today attest to deepening economic weakness in Europe. Euroland’s composite PMI reading of 47.1 after 46.7 in August and 47.0 in July are consistent with a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter drop in GDP in 3Q. Such would represent a fourth straight listless quarter following a 0.1% dip in the final […] More
September 21, 2023
Sovereign debt has been well-bid in the wake of the Fed’s message not to expect interest rates to fall much in 2024. Many other central banks have chimed in with hawkish messages today. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose overnight by nine basis points in Italy, seven basis points in the U.K., six bps in the […] More
September 20, 2023
Today’s is the sixth of eight scheduled policy meetings in 2023. After ten straight interest rate hikes beginning in March 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target unchanged at this year’s June meeting but implemented an 11th increase at the subsequent meeting eight weeks ago. Compared to the pandemic low range […] More
September 20, 2023
The dollar slipped overnight by 0.4% against the Australian and New Zealand currencies, 0.2% versus the euro and peso, and 0.1% relative to the Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc. Equities closed down 1.2% in India, 0.7% in Japan, 0.6% in Taiwan and Hong Kong and 0.5% in China but are currently showing overnight gains of […] More
September 19, 2023
The dollar slipped overnight by 0.4% against the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars, 0.2% relative to sterling, 0.3% against the peso and 0.1% vis-a-vis the euro and Swiss franc. Dollar/yen is steady. Share prices fell 0.9% in Japan, 0.7% in Singapore, 0.6% in South Korea, 0.5% in Australia and 0.4% in India and Taiwan. […] More
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