August 14, 2026
Two weeks shy of half-year since the Middle East war’s start, the sides have hunkered down for a game of economic and political attrition. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is slightly up on the day and around 6% higher than a week ago. The dollar fell overnight by 0.7% against its New […] Read Article
August 7, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Australia, Norway, Peru and Serbia. Hammack, Barkin and Bowman of the Fed will be speaking publicly. So will Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock to explain the RBA decision and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. With President Trump resuming his quest to replace Govenor Cook, new questions about the […] Read Article
August 6, 2026
The National Bank of Moldova’s base rate was increased to 7.5%, a 39-month high. This move followed increases of 150 basis points in May and 50 basis points in June undertaken to counteract intensifying effects from fighting in the Middle East. “The NBM’s decision to continue its restrictive monetary policy measures was adopted in the […] Read Article
July 31, 2026
The net July changes in the table below for the most part understates the extreme financial market turbulence caused by the re-escalating Middle East war, resulting sharp rise in the price of oil, rollout of a new U.S. tariff plan, extreme fires ravaging Europe and other parts of the world, and new regime at the […] Read Article
August 13, 2026
Major U.S. equity indices strengthened 0.4-0.9%. The 10-year Treasury yield’s slide of six basis points leads reductions of 4 bps in France and Spain, 3 bps in Germany, Italy and the U.K., and 2 bps in Switzerland. The weighted DXY dollar index edged 0.1% lower. Perceived chances that the Fed tightens at its September review […] More
August 12, 2026
Investors expect U.S. July overall and core consumer price inflation to dip marginally. Comments from Fed officials have suggested that an interest rate hike could happen at September’s meeting, but today’s CPI isn’t expected to seal that vote. If that in fact proves the case, attention will quickly turn to tomorrow’s producer price releases. Meanwhile, […] More
August 11, 2026
Because so many market participants take holidays at this time of year, August has a reputation in the financial community for being a calm period when not much happens, and the first half of this year’s August has pretty much conformed to that stereotype. It hasn’t always been so, however. It was in August that […] More
August 10, 2026
(127) The deadlock in efforts to reopen shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz goes on, with Iran insisting on 14 demands from the United States that are far beyond what the Trump Administration is willing to accept. The grave doubts that Middle Eastern experts expressed very early into the initial ceasefire have proven prescient, […] More
August 7, 2026
The dollar marked time overnight, with no net changes against the euro, loonie or its weighted DXY index, an uptick of 0.1% relative to sterling, and downticks of 0.1% versus the Australian dollar and Japanese yen. Bigger drops of 0.3% occurred against the Mexican peso, Indonesia rupiah and Swiss franc and of 0.5% relative to […] More
August 6, 2026
Pick your cliche. Waiting for Godot. It ain’t over til the fat lady sings, or the Trumpian favorite that we’ll have to see what happens. Iran and Oman, which occupies the other side of the narrow Strait of Hormuz, are reportedly crafting an interim commitment to partially but not fully open the shipping passageway. Military […] More
August 5, 2026
Four 25-basis point rate cuts at the Central Bank of Brazil have lowered such to 14.0%, which still remains far above the latest 12-month 4.6% rate of consumer price inflation. Today’s reduction was decided unanimously, and more cautious downward moves are to be expected in coming months. A three percentage point inflation corridor is targeted, […] More
August 5, 2026
On the heels of yesterday’s record U.S. equity market closes, financial markets are feeling optimistic. Axios reports that a 60-day deal that would open the Strait of Hormuz involving the U.S., Oman and Iran is very close. Sources in Qatar claim that a draft has been written, and both President Trump and his Treasury Secretary, […] More
August 4, 2026
Monday’s U.S. stock market rally had been triggered by another last-minute pull-back in President Trump’s threat to annihilate Iran militarily. Yet again, his willingness to give diplomatic talks one more chance was quickly met with a different narrative with Iran that direct talks between the two countries have not resumed. They are only speaking to […] More
August 3, 2026
(128) President Trump repeated the prior weekend’s geopolitical gambit. Like then, he had threatened before the weekend that massive military strikes against Iran were imminent, only to rescind that order and announce that a diplomatic approach will be tried instead. In both instances, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has traded 6.8% lower […] More
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