June 12, 2026
Not for the first time in the last three months, President Trump has claimed that deal negotiations have made great progress, enough so to call off fresh military strikes against Iran. The multi-point plan reportedly would remove both Iranian and U.S. impediments against shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, unfreeze Iranian financial assets, and […] Read Article
June 12, 2026
Central Banks: A slew of monetary authorities will be reviewing monetary policies next week, including those in the United States, Great Britain, Japan, Sweden, Norway, Taiwan, Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Moldova, and the Philippines. It will be the first FOMC meeting not chaired by Jerome Powell in eight year. That […] Read Article
June 11, 2026
The European Central Bank’s trio of key rates were lifted by an as-expected 25 basis points to a 2.25% deposit rate, a 2.40% refinancing rate, and 2.65% on the marginal lending facility rate. A statement announcing these changes explains The war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates […] Read Article
May 29, 2026
For many weeks now, Trump administration officials have been saying that a peace deal may be just around the corner, but the conditions for such have so far proven elusive. That hasn’t mattered. Repeat something long enough and people will come to believe it, and so financial markets in the third month of the Middle […] Read Article
June 11, 2026
World financial markets were hit by several new developments this Thursday. On balance, equities are up, and 10-year sovereign debt yields are down. But these moves were trimmed after the announced rise in U.S. PPI inflation exceeded expectations. The dollar has not been affected much at all. The latest U.S. military operation against Iran has […] More
June 10, 2026
Investors are in a risk-off mood this Wednesday. Two-way military strikes by the United States and Iran have followed President Trump’s threat that Iran will now “pay a price” for dragging its feet in diplomatic talks to end the conflict. But the United States is also paying a price. The major U.S. equity indices in […] More
June 8, 2026
(136) The pulpable spike in market anxiety late last week could have become worse today after Iran and Israel traded missile strikes over the weekend, but Iran just as suddenly announced an end to that operation. U.S. President Trump, as he often does, then expressed optimism that a peace deal may be close. This backdrop […] More
June 5, 2026
The U.S. Labor Department’s monthly employment situation report for May depicts a stronger labor market situation than realized. A 172k jump in nonfarm payroll jobs was more than double consensus expectations. In addition to upward revisions to the increases in March and April totaling 93k brings the latest three-month average to a robust 188k and […] More
June 4, 2026
Middle Eastern geopolitics continues to impact financial market activity in multiple ways. There is the guessing game about when an enduring ceasefire and will be reached, which pivots with each ensuing pronouncement from officials or rumor/news scoop that hits the wires. Seemingly lost in this focus on the timing of a deal is the reality […] More
June 3, 2026
The dollar has benefitted from solid U.S. economic data and fresh doubts that peace and shipping traffic will be restored in the Middle East. The biggest dollar gains overnight involved 0.7-1.0% rises against the won, peso, kiwi and rupiah as well as lesser 0.2-0.5% advances relative to the euro, Swiss franc, Aussie dollar, loonie and […] More
June 2, 2026
This has been another day without the cause of peace being enhanced. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly non-existent. Russia has escalated military bombardments of Ukraine. It remains unclear whether Israel will heed calls for it to deescalate its war in Lebanon. There has been a direct link between the geopolitical strife in […] More
June 1, 2026
(137) Given last week’s optimistic mood regarding negotiations for a lasting ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, todays dour mood has seemingly descended on the financial community without warning. On closer inspection, the shifting prospects for a “deal” was predictable and inevitably timed. Overly optimistic forecasts especially from the U.S. side have happened […] More
May 29, 2026
The verbal message that a peace deal in the Middle East, which began very soon after the conflict’s outbreak, may be getting stale but nonetheless continues to temper the reaction of financial markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut. Fighting in Lebanon continues. The U.S. has still not signed off on the reported deal […] More
May 28, 2026
From a military standpoint, it doesn’t look like long-term peace in the Middle East is close at hand. The U.S. and Iran traded military strikes already this week, and the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is being repeatedly violated as well. Nonetheless, reports continue that Iranian and U.S. negotiators are close to a penciling a […] More
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