October 28, 2026
The evolution of oil prices continues to be a primary driver of financial market activity. Brent and WTI prices for crude oil rose overnight by 1.3% and 1.8% as investors reacted to an inconclusive Israeli election, a report that the U.S. is considering a brief military action against the Iran following next week’s midterms, and […] Read Article
October 23, 2026
Central Banks: The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan head the list of monetary authorities with scheduled interest rate reviews in the coming week. None of these banks are expected to lift their rates then, although a case for tightening can be made in each instance. Two banks where a rate hike […] Read Article
October 28, 2026
The Federal Open Market Committee can justify the widely expected decision of leaving the Fed funds target unchanged at 3.75-4.00% on the economic grounds that only six weeks have passed since the rate was increased in mid-September, considerably more information will be gleaned by the December review, and the fact that inflation according to the […] Read Article
October 15, 2026
The Federal Reserve did a pretty good job promoting price stability over the first two decades of this century. Between January 2001 and January 2021 coinciding with the eight-year presidential terms of Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Barack Obama and the first four-year term of Republican Donald Trump, U.S. consumer prices rose 2.0% per […] Read Article
October 28, 2026
The Bank of Canada updates macroeconomic forecasts in July, October, January and April. Given the sizable full percentage point increase in projected consumer price inflation in 2027 from 2.0% assumed at the July update to 3.0% this time, today’s 25-basis point interest rate hike to 2.5% looks like only the start of a tightening cycle. […] More
October 27, 2026
Two of President Trump’s most commonly used words are “deal” and “hoax.” A best-seller The Art of the Deal written in 1987 describes his business philosophy and tactics in great detail. On retrospect these forty years later, a parallel book that one might call The Art of the Hoax would be even more revealing about […] More
October 27, 2026
Financial markets have been choppy today as a number of potential market movers lie just ahead: Israel’s parliamentary election today represents a crossroads in the nation’s international image. From the what-else-is-new-department, there’s been conflicting chatter regarding the conflict in Iran. A rare publicized comment from the enigmatic new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei calling for an […] More
October 26, 2026
The State Bank of Pakistan’s policy interest rate was raised 50 basis points to 12.0% by a vote of 9-1. This was the first increase since a 100 basis point increase back in April, which in turn represented a trend reversal from a previous rate cutting cycle that began in June 2024 at 22% and […] More
October 26, 2026
(116) Oil prices remain a key driver of economic life around the world. At $115.2 and $101.9 per barrel, Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude costs remain above the $100/barrel threshold, but they are 1.3% and 2.0% below pre-weekend closing levels amid reports of some back-channel diplomatic efforts and news of near-normal traffic through the […] More
October 23, 2026
The National Bank of Kazakhstan came word of a larger-than-anticipated half percentage point drop of the base rate to 15.75%, bringing the combined reduction since June to 225 basis points from a ceiling of 18.0% that had been maintained since October 2025. Consumer price inflation in Kazakhstan has fallen in each of the past twelve […] More
October 23, 2026
Friday saw no let-up in West Asia’s twin wars. Even as the U.S. and Russia agreed to restart peace talks, mutual attacks by Russia and Ukraine on each other continued at a fierce pace. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructures also persist, lending more support to speculation that Israel and the United States are […] More
October 22, 2026
As was anticipated, officials at the Central Bank of Turkey lowered their one-week repo rate by a full percentage point to 36.0%. That was the rates first change since a similarly-sized cut last January, which in turn came after cuts totaling 900 basis points during the second half of 2025. The resumed rate-cutting cycle was […] More
October 22, 2026
It’s been another day of scary news from West Asia. After U.S. negotiator Witkoff sucked up to Russian President Putin and elicited an agreement to restart three-way peace talks among Ukraine, the U.S. and Russia, the latter struck its southern neighbor very hard militarily overnight. Even more worrisome, Washington has requested its diplomats to leave […] More
October 21, 2026
The U.S. currency has declined so far today by 0.5% against the Australian dollar, 0.4% relative to sterling 0.3% versus the yen and Swiss franc and 0.1% against the Canadian dollar and kiwi. Exceptions to this trend include dollar advances overnight of 0.5% relative to the peso and 0.3% versus the rupiah. Factors weighing on […] More
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