September 9, 2026
The Middle Eastern war has settled into a nasty game of chicken as both sides escalate their military attacks. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are each over 3.0% higher today alone at $101.15 and $96.37 per barrel. In turn, 10-year sovereign debt yields today so far have risen nine basis points in […] Read Article
September 8, 2026
The promise of the Trump presidency to make America greater hasn’t been fulfilled yet. U.S. real GDP had expanded 2.8% in 2024, the year he was reelected to a non-consecutive second term. In 2024, economic growth had been substantially weaker in both Japan (-0.2%) and Euroland (+0.9%) than in the United States. U.S. economic growth […] Read Article
September 4, 2026
The National Bank of Kazakhstan’s scheduled policy review sent a mixed message, cutting the base rate by 50 basis points to 16.25% rather than 25 bps as was expected but also signaling hesitation against further reductions when looking ahead. The favorable dynamics of current inflation and inflation expectations created room to lower the base rate […] Read Article
September 6, 2026
The back-and-forth developments from the war between Iran on the one hand and the United States and Israel on the other chugged on without resolution during August. The bottom line from an economic standpoint is that the price of oil climbed 6.5% on top of a July increase of more than 20%, ending up around […] Read Article
September 8, 2026
The Middle Eastern war has taken a turn for the worse. Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia have damaged energy infrastructure, and the $93.47 current price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is more than 2.0% higher so far today. Israeli attacks in Lebanon have intensified, and the U.S. tariff war with neighboring Canada is more […] More
September 7, 2026
(123) Like so many other weekends this year, developments around the Strait of Hormuz did not support claims that progress is being made on the diplomatic front. Oil prices are around 1% higher than last week’s closing levels. Speculation is high that central bank interest rates will be lifted later this month at both the […] More
September 4, 2026
The U.S. labor market last month showed greater-than-anticipated strength. The pivotal factor behind what the FOMC ultimately decides will still be upcoming price data, today’s job market surprise packed enough punch to depress share prices, maintain elevated long-term interest rate levels, lift the dollar, and soften the prices of crypto and precious metals. The dollar […] More
September 3, 2026
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s official cash rate was raised by 25 basis points to 2.75% in follow-up to a similarly-sized initial tightening at the prior policy review in July. Nine previous reductions between May 2023 and August 2024 had lowered the interest rate to 2.25% from 5.5%, but consumer price inflation in New […] More
September 3, 2026
Federal Reserve Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams each made remarks casting some doubt about the likelihood of the central bank raising interest rates after its September 15-16 policy review. Waller said the decision is likely to be heavily influenced by the upcoming CPI price data, and Williams noted that a fading impact […] More
August 28, 2026
From a strictly economic perspective, the success of a movement to achieve a greater America ought to be self-evident if in time economic growth strengthens, price stability is better achieved, and if consumer confidence improves. These are conditions that can be readily tested. Real GDP slowed from an average 2.8% in 2024 (Biden’s final year) […] More
August 28, 2026
The much-awaited keynote address by Fed Chairman Warsh at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium included these remarks about inflation: While this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved. The data also show moderate wage growth. But in tracking underlying inflation, wage growth […] More
August 27, 2026
entral bank interest rates were hiked by 25 basis points today in South Korea and the Philippines to 3.0% and 5.0%, respectively. In South Korea’s case, this was the second such tightening in a row from a 2.5% base maintained from May 2025 until the monthly review this past July. Despite slightly lower inflation in […] More
August 27, 2026
Dollar changes this Thursday have been unremarkable. Nvdia earnings last quarter exceeded optimistic expectations. The tech-intensive Nasdaq is 1.2% higher mid-morning EDT. More general jitters about AI, the Middle East war, and U.S. trade policies are associated with little change in other major U.S. stock market barometers. Pac Rimequities were mixed today, with the Korean […] More
August 26, 2026
In two more days, the war between the United States and Iran will be seven months old in a conflict initially estimated to last five weeks at top. Seven months represents a sixth of the duration of U.S. participation in the second world war from Pearl Harbor to Hiroshima. There have been many elusive moments […] More
Currency Thoughts has evolved from a blog to a full-functioning website. This new design provides easier access to your favorite features and new capabilities to accept ads. In the future, it will be possible to register to accept emailed updates.
Posts