March 10, 2026
In these weeks of incredible geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. President Trump’s verbal sound track has emerged as the the dominant short-term determinant of financial market movements. One can only imagine the massive personal wealth that could be amassed from such powerful influence. With fierce Middle East bombing broadening and all signs from Iran suggesting no intention […] Read Article
March 6, 2026
Central Banks: Pakistan, Turkey, Peru and Serbia have scheduled monetary policy reviews during the week. Holiday and Events: The Islamic holy month-long observance of Ramadan continues. The United States and Canada go on daylight savings time this Sunday, which will slice the time differential between GMT and EDT to four hours from five. This is […] Read Article
March 5, 2026
The National Bank of Poland lowered their policy reference interest rate to a 4-year low of 3.75% from 4.00% yesterday in what had been an expected decision in spite of the elevation of geopolitical uncertainties this month. The new level is 300 basis points below the peak of 6.75% between September 2022 and July of […] Read Article
February 28, 2026
U.S.-generated uncertainty, which had been so prominent in 2025, somehow managed to build to an even greater extent in the first month of President Trump’s second term. Despite being the creator of the chaos, America’s currency benefited from safe-haven demand, so losses versus currencies against which the dollar fell during February were comparatively muted. The […] Read Article
March 9, 2026
(149) At today’s high, the $119.48 peak in West Texas Intermediate oil had leaped by a total 117% in less than three months and was 84% above its closing level on February 27 just before the start of Operation Epic Fury. The price has settled back to $102.4 per barrel currently, still 37% higher than […] More
March 8, 2026
Let’s give a collective round of applause for the return of daylight savings time! Seeing the sun set at close to 7:00 PM tonight, something that hasn’t happened since the third week in September, will no doubt constitute a vast and most welcome improvement. Winter can be harsh on the senses, and this past one […] More
March 6, 2026
The military conflict against Iran was supposed to be different from others like those involving Venezuela, Ukraine, Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, or to go back 60 years Vietnam. Most importantly, no ground troops would be needed, so U.S. casualties would be way down, and the risks were limited of it becoming endless, causing domestic economic pain, […] More
March 5, 2026
Whatever the reason, there is a pattern of short-lived retirements of American presidents who presided over the country’s major wars. It starts with James Polk, a one-term president for the four years through March 4, 1849. It was on his watch that the Mexican War was fought between April 1846 and February 1848. As a […] More
March 5, 2026
As has often been the case during the Iran war, there has been other equity market reversal between Asia’s and Europe’s trading day. Stock market indices rebounded 9.6% in South Korea, 2.6% in Taiwan, 1.9% in Japan, 1.8% in Indonesia, 1.1% in India, 0.9% in Malaysia and 0.6% in China. However, markets in Germany, Italy, […] More
March 4, 2026
A perfect storm of war, AI, and constantly fluctuating official statements regarding the middle eastern conflict is afoot for an out-of-control rumor mill. There’s been a wide reversal in market momentum during the overnight hours after an unconfirmed report that Iran intelligence officials may be attempting a back-channel communication with the United States to de-escalate […] More
March 3, 2026
All things considered, the reaction of financial markets yesterday to the quickly unfolding war in the Middle East was more muted than many had reason to expect. The media are having a hard time keeping up with the rapidly changing events, and a crisis-watcher is apt to be misled by anything but real-time breaking news. […] More
March 2, 2026
The initial currency market reaction in these early days of the war between Iran on the one hand and the U.S. and Israel on the other has been favorable to the dollar, which is attracting funds looking for financial safety. Without knowing how the conflict will evolve militarily and politically, one can imagine momentum shifting […] More
March 2, 2026
(150) Hot money flows seeking a safe haven lifted the dollar by almost a full percent on a weighted basis. Individual gains amount to 1.2% against the Swiss franc, 1.0% versus the New Zealand dollar, 0.9% to a 5-week high relative to the euro, 0.9% against the Korean won, 0.8% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar and […] More
February 27, 2026
The week of President Trump’s State of the Union Address is ending with steep losses in U.S. equities, a drop of the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.0%, a big rise in the prices of oil, gold and silver, weaker crypto, and a flat dollar. Investors are reacting to today’s unexpectedly sharp rise of U.S. producer […] More
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