Chinese trade balance
Trump Speaks and Markets Follow
March 10, 2026
In these weeks of incredible geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. President Trump’s verbal sound track has emerged as the the dominant short-term determinant of financial market movements. One can only imagine the massive personal wealth that could be amassed from such powerful influence. With fierce Middle East bombing broadening and all signs from Iran suggesting no intention […] More
Data Cyclone
December 10, 2024
This Tuesday was greeted with a heap of price and industrial production data, a downward revision to U.S. unit labor cost growth, Chinese trade figures, and central bank rate decisions in Australia and Armenia. The dollar strengthened overnight by 1.1-1.2% against the Australian and New Zealand currencies, 0.6% relative to the yen, and 0.4% versus […] More
Uchida to the Rescue
August 7, 2024
One of the most effective policy tools to combat disorderly financial market conditions can be simple yet convincing rhetorical commitment by a monetary official not to allow runaway speculative frenzy that may jeopardize basic policy objectives. The singular example of such an act happened on July 26, 2012 when the European Central Bank President Mario […] More
Investors Focused on Monetary Policies, Inflation, and Biden’s State of the Union Address Tonight
March 7, 2024
Scheduled monetary policy reviews at the European Central Bank, National Bank of Serbia, and Central Bank of Malaysia left key interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, 6.5%, and 3.0%, respectively. No changes had been expected. Bank of Japan Board member Nakagawa made remarks affirming that Japan’s economy is closer to achieving the central bank’s inflation target […] More
Awaiting Chairman Powell’s Semi-Annual Congressional Testimony
March 7, 2023
Formerly known as the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, Fed Chairman Powell will testify about how the Fed sees the U.S. economy and inflation evolving before the Senate Banking Committee today at 10:00 (15:00 GMT) and the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow. Investors particularly will glean his remarks for clarification of what monetary officials need to see before […] More
Lots of Other Data to Digest While Waiting for U.S. April Jobs Report
May 7, 2021
The dollar, down a mere 0.1% overnight, and the 10-year Treasury yield — unchanged at 1.57% — have been marking time ahead of the U.S. Labor Department’s monthly jobs report, which is expected to reveal a 0.1-0.2 percentage point drop in unemployment, another large jump in employment of close to 900k, but tepid wage pressure. […] More
Continuing Rise of Long-Term U.S. Bond Yields Lifts Dollar but Depresses Equities
March 8, 2021
The 10-year Treasury yield’s uptrend that began from 0.89% in mid-December has been extended another three basis points to 1.60%. The senate approved a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package along partisan lines over the weekend, and investors are concerned that U.S. inflation will exceed the Fed’s expectations in both the short and long run. Bond […] More
Several Data Releases but Little Market Movement
December 9, 2019
Markets are mostly marking time ahead of numerous central bank meetings this week and Britain’s momentous election on Thursday. The dollar is trading very near its closing levels last Friday. The price of gold is 0.2% firmer. That of WTI oil is 0.5% softer. Stock markets closed 0.3% higher in Japan, South Korea and Australia […] More
Atypically High Amount of Data Reported This Monday
September 9, 2019
Data releases rather than market action were in today’s spotlight. Japanese real GDP growth last quarter was revised downward by a half percentage point to an annualized 1.3% from the first quarter. Business investment and exports were weaker than estimated initially. Real GDP was 1.0% greater than in the second quarter of 2018, and the […] More
Monetary Policy Reviews, an Intensifying U.S. Political Crisis, Trade Talks, and Some Data Surprises
May 8, 2019
Central bank officials in New Zealand and Malaysia cut their interest rates, while those in Thailand maintained an “accommodative but appropriate” 1.75% rate level. Thailand’s growth outlook was revised downward, but the inflation prognosis wasn’t changed. New Zealand’s official cash rate was lowered 25 basis points to 1.5%. Such had been 1.75% since November 2016. […] More
