Sterling
Populism Not a Good Recipe for Currency Strength
June 28, 2017
Among highly developed countries, the United States and Great Britain are some of the best examples in which the politics of populism has made the greatest inroads. Sterling is roughly 14% weaker now against the dollar than when the Brexit referendum was approved a little over a year ago, but even the pound has appreciated […] More
Sterling Sinks Below $1.3000 to Monthly Low
August 9, 2016
Sovereign debt prices rose. So did stocks, oil, the yen and dollar. Gold and industrial metal prices fell. There are holidays today in Singapore and South Africa. Today is the ninth anniversary of the onset of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the 42nd anniversary of the resignation of former President Nixon. The dollar dipped […] More
Sterling and Oil Slammed…Funds Seeking Bonds and Yen
July 5, 2016
The dollar rose 1.7% against sterling but fell 0.9% relative to the yen. The greenback has also risen 1.0% against the loonie, 0.9% relative to the Aussie dollar and kiwi. Dollar/euro and dollar/Swiss are little changed. Commodities are sinking except in the case of precious metals like gold and silver. West Texas Intermediate oil fell […] More
Continuing Brexit Concerns and FOMC Day
June 15, 2016
A fifth published poll of British voters gives an edge to those favoring an exit from the European Union. Today’s main event will be the FOMC statement due at 18:00 GMT and subsequent press conference. China made news in three ways earlier today. First, MSCI announced it will not include equities in its indices. The second […] More
Currency Management Norms Under Threat
May 23, 2016
A statement released April 15 by G20 finance ministers and central bank governors reaffirmed a position against currency manipulation that represents a coordinated stance that’s been in place already for a long time: Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will consult closely on […] More
Several Developments Including a New Brexit Poll
May 17, 2016
According to a new British opinion poll that surveyed about 800 people by phone, the margin of people favoring continuing membership in the European Union versus leaving that group has doubled to about 15 percentage points with 55% want to stay and 40% now in support of leaving. Sterling is 0.6% firmer against the dollar […] More
A Most Peculiar Year
March 2, 2016
Face it, anticipating the movements of currencies has never been intuitive, and it’s hard to recall a time quite as confusing as the present. The United States, Britain, eurozone, Japan, China and Brazil each face economic and political crossroads of enormous importance. United States: The presidential primaries have highlighted an extremely high level of voter […] More
Markets in Helter Skelter Mode as Trump Wins Big and Oil Drops 3.3%
February 24, 2016
Donald Trump captured the Republican caucus in Nevada with 45.9% of the vote to Rubio’s 23.9% and Cruz’ 21.4% third place showing. With neither Rubio nor Cruz inclined to drop out, Trump’s bid for the nomination looks unstopable. Following Tuesday’s difficult day for U.S. stocks, share prices in Europe are registering their worst day since […] More
The Year is Still Young, Yet Already Full of Surprise
February 17, 2016
The first eighth of 2016 was eventful. The surprises are not limited to China and other developing economies, either. Financial markets have been very volatile. Although near the middle of its high-low range thus far, the price of oil is down around 16% on balance, and gold is more than $100 above its end-2015 level. […] More
Early Days in a Newly Perceived Threat to Currency Market Stability
June 19, 2014
A lack of meaningful currency market movement this year among the major advanced pairs like EUR/USD and dollar/yen has been one element of a broader dampening of volatility in all sorts of financial markets. Many commentators have noted that often such stability came before disruptive crises, and the worry that we may be in a […] More
