FOMC
Another Bank Failure, A Rush to Safety, and A Swift Reversal In Expectations of What the Fed Is Likely to Do
March 13, 2023
On the heels of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank has closed its doors, too. U.S. monetary policy is ordinarily framed by two mandates: keeping inflation low and stable but also maximizing employment within the constraint of sustaining price stability. There are occasional moments, however, when those dual goals are overridden by the […] More
Comment on FOMC Statement and Powell’s Press Conference
November 2, 2022
The opening two paragraphs describing U.S. growth and inflation, the impact of Russia war on such, and the prioritization of the Fed’s two mandates are unrevised. Paragraph 3 confirms that the federal funds rate target range is indeed rising 75 basis points to 3.75-4.0% in line with earlier rhetorical guidance. The committee agreed also to […] More
FOMC Meeting and Putin’s Reservist Mobilization Overhang an Edgy Day
September 21, 2022
The FOMC announcement at 14:00 EDT will be accompanied by updated macroeconomic forecasts and followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference starting at 14:30 (18:30 GMT). Officials are expected to raise the federal funds target by 75 basis points, bringing the increase since June to 225 bps and establishing the highest target level (3.0-3.25%) since a […] More
Slightly Softer Dollar but Higher Share Prices Ahead of FOMC Announcement
July 27, 2022
The FOMC statement due at 18:00 GMT today will be followed by Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. Fed forecasts are not being updated at this meeting, and officials are widely expected to raised the fed funds target by 75 more basis points to 2.25-2.50%, which would more or less align such with what is […] More
Central Banks in India and Iceland Jump the Gun on Fed
May 4, 2022
A 50-basis point interest rate hike later today is virtually baked into the Federal Open Market Committee decision. The last hike of more than 25 bps was in May 2000. Analysts anticipate forceful forward guidance language as well. The announcement is set for 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT), and Chairman Powell’s press conference begins 30 minutes […] More
Shortlived Equity Rally, More Inflationary Reports, and Day One of an Historic FOMC Meeting
May 3, 2022
Tech stocks had rallied in the final hour of Monday trading, but futures point to a likely drop of at least 0.5% at the start of Tuesday’s session. Share prices fell 0.9% in New Zealand, 0.6% in Taiwan, 0.4% in Australia, and are down 0.8% in the U.K., whose market had been closed for holiday […] More
Holiday Closures and Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices to Start the Week
May 2, 2022
For a variety of reasons, many countries are observing holiday this Monday. It’s the early spring banking holiday in Great Britain. Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are celebrating Eid-al-Fitr. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan are shut for Labor Day. Among stock markets that are open for business this Monday, Australia and […] More
Equities and Dollar Up Ahead of FOMC Announcement
January 26, 2022
Share prices so far today have climbed 1.8% or more in Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Great Britain. Futures trading in the S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq show overnight gains of 1.0 – 1.8%. Equities in Asia closed narrowly mixed with drops of 0.4% in Japan and South Korea but gains of 0.7% in China […] More
Dollar Buoyed by Risk Aversion Ahead of FOMC Meeting and Also Fanned by Ukraine Tensions and Weak Purchasing Manager Surveys
January 24, 2022
The dollar has stremgthened 0.3% against the euro, loonie and on a weighted DXY basis. Even sharper advances can be seen of 0.7% relative to the Australian dollar and 0.5% versus sterling. The global sell-off of equities has resumed, with losses today of 2.6% in India, 1.5% in South Korea, 1.3% in New Zealand and […] More
Dollar Falters
July 29, 2021
The dollar fell overnight by 0.4% against the euro, peso, Swissie, and DXY weighted index but even more versus the New Zealand dollar and Turkish lira (each 0.7%), loonie (0.6%), and yuan and sterling (each 0.5%). Lesser dollar declines of 0.3% and 0.2% occurred against the Australian dollar and Japanese yen, respectively. Equities, commodity prices, […] More
