An Active Session from a Data Release, Central Bank Watching and Market Volatility Standpoint

June 15, 2023

The dollar touched an 8-month high against the yen overnight of 141.5 and currently shows a net 0.9% advance from Wednesday’s close. The dollar edged only 0.1% higher against sterling, the euro and Swiss franc, however. The price of Bitcoin tokens dived over $1000 (or 3.9%) so far today. Prices have diverged for West Texas […] More

Another Bank Failure, A Rush to Safety, and A Swift Reversal In Expectations of What the Fed Is Likely to Do

March 13, 2023

On the heels of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank has closed its doors, too. U.S. monetary policy is ordinarily framed by two mandates: keeping inflation low and stable but also maximizing employment within the constraint of sustaining price stability. There are occasional moments, however, when those dual goals are overridden by the […] More

Comment on FOMC Statement and Powell’s Press Conference

November 2, 2022

The opening two paragraphs describing U.S. growth and inflation, the impact of Russia war on such, and the prioritization of the Fed’s two mandates are unrevised. Paragraph 3 confirms that the federal funds rate target range is indeed rising 75 basis points to 3.75-4.0% in line with earlier rhetorical guidance. The committee agreed also to […] More

FOMC Meeting and Putin’s Reservist Mobilization Overhang an Edgy Day

September 21, 2022

The FOMC announcement at 14:00 EDT will be accompanied by updated macroeconomic forecasts and followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference starting at 14:30 (18:30 GMT). Officials are expected to raise the federal funds target by 75 basis points, bringing the increase since June to 225 bps and establishing the highest target level (3.0-3.25%) since a […] More

Slightly Softer Dollar but Higher Share Prices Ahead of FOMC Announcement

July 27, 2022

The FOMC statement due at 18:00 GMT today will be followed by Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later. Fed forecasts are not being updated at this meeting, and officials are widely expected to raised the fed funds target by 75 more basis points to 2.25-2.50%, which would more or less align such with what is […] More

Central Banks in India and Iceland Jump the Gun on Fed

May 4, 2022

A 50-basis point interest rate hike later today is virtually baked into the Federal Open Market Committee decision. The last hike of more than 25 bps was in May 2000. Analysts anticipate forceful forward guidance language as well. The announcement is set for 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT), and Chairman Powell’s press conference begins 30 minutes […] More

Shortlived Equity Rally, More Inflationary Reports, and Day One of an Historic FOMC Meeting

May 3, 2022

Tech stocks had rallied in the final hour of Monday trading, but futures point to a likely drop of at least 0.5% at the start of Tuesday’s session. Share prices fell 0.9% in New Zealand, 0.6% in Taiwan, 0.4% in Australia, and are down 0.8% in the U.K., whose market had been closed for holiday […] More

Holiday Closures and Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices to Start the Week

May 2, 2022

For a variety of reasons, many countries are observing holiday this Monday. It’s the early spring banking holiday in Great Britain. Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are celebrating Eid-al-Fitr. China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan are shut for Labor Day. Among stock markets that are open for business this Monday, Australia and […] More

Equities and Dollar Up Ahead of FOMC Announcement

January 26, 2022

Share prices so far today have climbed 1.8% or more in Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Great Britain. Futures trading in the S&P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq show overnight gains of 1.0 – 1.8%. Equities in Asia closed narrowly mixed with drops of 0.4% in Japan and South Korea but gains of 0.7% in China […] More

Dollar Buoyed by Risk Aversion Ahead of FOMC Meeting and Also Fanned by Ukraine Tensions and Weak Purchasing Manager Surveys

January 24, 2022

The dollar has stremgthened 0.3% against the euro, loonie and on a weighted DXY basis. Even sharper advances can be seen of 0.7% relative to the Australian dollar and 0.5% versus sterling. The global sell-off of equities has resumed, with losses today of 2.6% in India, 1.5% in South Korea, 1.3% in New Zealand and […] More