U.S. GDP
Watching Cracks in the Ceasefire and Rising Inflation While Awaiting Some Key U.S. Economic Data
April 9, 2026
The U.S./Iranian ceasefire got off to a very shaky start. Amazingly, Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon was left out of the deal at least if the American narrative is to be believed. Iran is recounting a different story and frankly a more credible rendition of what was agreed. Not only did Israel’s assault of southern Lebanon […] More
Stagflationary Concerns
February 27, 2025
The investment community remains concerned that President Trump’s revolutionary policy agenda, which is proceeding at Blitzkrieg speed, will introduce upside inflationary risks and downside growth risks. The concerns are limited to the U.S. economy. Europe is likely to fair even worse and possibly Asia, too. The disparate possibilities are reflected in today’s market action. The […] More
Central Banks and Data Storm Vie for Investors’ Attention
January 30, 2025
The dollar fell 0.8% against the yen overnight but has barely moved against other major currencies in the wake of the FOMC meeting that left the federal funds target unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. Fed Chairman Powell said monetary policy and the U.S. economy are in a good place and that there is no urgency therefore to […] More
ADP Jobs Estimate Eclipses Influence of U.S. and Euroland GDP Data Also Released Today
October 30, 2024
Estimated private sector employment growth in October from Automatic Data Processing, Inc soared to 233 thousand new jobs. That 15-month high is twice what analysts were expecting and follows 159k in September, which was revised from an original estimate of 143k. If the labor market release due this Friday corroborates this sharp pickup in labor market […] More
Several Data Surprises Accentuate Healthier U.S. Economy than Found in Other Countries
July 25, 2024
A 2.8% annualized quarter-on-quarter U.S. growth rate in April-June was twice the pace in the prior quarter and beat analyst expectation by three-quarters of a percentage point. Positive contributions to GDP growth were made by personal consumption (1.6 percentage points ppts) and non-residential business investment (0.7 ppts),and inventory growth more than offset the 0.7 ppt […] More
Fed Showing Patience Amid Robust U.S. Economic Data
March 28, 2024
Governor Waller is the latest top Federal Reserve Governor to affirm the prudence to not cutting rates as soon as the FOMC had been signaling earlier this year. This patience in the face of robust U.S. economic data has not adversely affected investor sentiment the way such did not long ago. U.S. equities are so […] More
Another Bad Day for Stocks.. House of Representatives Ends Speaker Impasse.. And Rate Hikes in Turkey and The Philippines
October 26, 2023
Disappointing third-quarter corporate earnings have been the driving force behind the drop in share prices. Stock markets in the Pacific Rim closed down 2.7% in South Korea, 2.1% in Japan, 1.8% in Indonesia, 1.7% in Taiwan, and 1.4% in India. Share prices have lost 0.8% to 1.4% so far in Germany, France, Italy and Great […] More
Spotlight Shining on Oil Prices
September 28, 2023
Oil inventory data on Wednesday sent the price of West Texas Intermediate up to a 14-month high of $95.03 per barrel overnight, but the price subsequently settled back and is currently 0.5% below yesterday’s close. Investors or on tenterhooks to see where the oil price heads next. An additional concern, which has buttressed sovereign debt […] More
Almost Solid Front of Hawkish Central Bank Policies With a Mounting Focus on Squelching Wage Pressure and Service Sector Prices
June 29, 2023
The leaders of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan participated in a panel discussion yesterday. Powell, Bailey, and Lagarde attempted to outdo each other in displaying their commitment to lowering inflation. Whatever the cost in the short run, each insisted the long-term costs would be even greater if […] More
German Recession Confirmed and Interest Rate Decisions in South Korea, Turkey and Indonesia
May 25, 2023
U.S. GDP data will be released shortly. In the meantime, German GDP growth last quarter was revised to -0.3% (not annualized) from zero percent reported originally. That’s the second negative quarter in a row and the third drop in the past four quarter, resulting in a negative year-on-year growth rate of -0.5% as well. The […] More
