U.S. GDP

End of Third Quarter 2021

September 30, 2021

The DXY weighted dollar dipped 0.1% overnight but experienced a quarterly advance of around 2.5%. In the Pacific Rim, share prices on the final trading day of the quarter rose 1.9% in Australia, 1.4% in New Zealand, 2.0% in Indonesia, and 0.9% in China but fell by 0.4% in Hong Kong and 0.3% in Japan. […] More

Marking Time as Drama at Jackson Hole and Kabul Unfold

August 26, 2021

The St. Louis and Kansas City Federal Reserve District presidents, who represent predominately Republican regions of the United States, publicly expressed their personal desires to see quantitative tapering begin this autumn, and Bullard of St. Louis added his hope that an interest rate hike be done before the end of 2022. The annual central banking […] More

Dollar Falters

July 29, 2021

The dollar fell overnight by 0.4% against the euro, peso, Swissie, and DXY weighted index but even more versus the New Zealand dollar and Turkish lira (each 0.7%), loonie (0.6%), and yuan and sterling (each 0.5%). Lesser dollar declines of 0.3% and 0.2% occurred against the Australian dollar and Japanese yen, respectively. Equities, commodity prices, […] More

Signs of Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy Patience

June 24, 2021

Overnight dollar movements were mostly down but slight in magnitude. The U.S. currency slid 0.4% against the Mexican peso, 0.3% relative to the New Zealand dollar, 0.2% versus the yen, and 0.1% against the euro, Aussie dollar, loonie and yuan. The dollar also rose 0.5% versus the Turkish lira and 0.3% against sterling. Relative to […] More

Dollar Rebound Continues While Equities Remain Exposed

October 29, 2020

There’s much to digest today: monetary policy reviews in Japan and Euroland, a first glimpse of U.S. 3Q growth, Covid lockdowns in France and Germany, and latest U.S. political developments as election campaign enters final days. The dollar strengthened overnight by another 1.4% versus the peso, 1.3% against the Australian dollar, 0.8% relative to the […] More

Digesting the Debate and a Slew of Quarter-End Data

September 30, 2020

Last night’s U.S. presidential debate was violently repulsive and leaves an embarrassing after-taste. The dollar hasn’t reacted discernibly, however, with gains of 0.3% against the euro and Swiss franc and 0.2% relative to sterling, no net change relative to the Japanese yen, and dips of 0.1% vis-a-vis the loonie, Aussie dollar and yuan. There have […] More

Comment on U.S. GDP Last Quarter

January 30, 2020

The first estimate of U.S. real GDP growth in the final quarter of 2019 of 2.1% annualized compared to the third-quarter level matches quarterly growth last summer and marks the third straight quarter with growth at or very close to 2.0%. Fourth quarter-over-4Q growth was 2.3%. Calendar 2019 average growth equaled 2.3% as well, lowest […] More

Coronavirus Outbreak Tops Busy List of Developments for Markets to Process

January 30, 2020

Several central banks held their first policy reviews of 2020. Those in Chile and Great Britain left their interest rate structures unchanged at 1.75% and 0.75%, respectively. The National Bank of Ukraine implemented its sixth rate cut in nine months, a 150-basis point reduction to 11.0%. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka engineered its third […] More

More Smoke than Fire

December 20, 2019

A lot of economic data was released on the final day of the final meaningful week of 2019, but the market is settling into yearend mode and showed a muted reaction. The dollar firmed overnight by 0.3% against the euro and Swiss franc but slipped 0.3% relative to sterling. There were dollar upticks of 0.2% […] More

Markets Anticipating Another Fed Rate Cut

October 30, 2019

The dollar marked time overnight as investors await confirmation of further easing from the FOMC. Their expectation of a third 25-basis point reduction since July 31st of the federal funds target is thought by many to be accompanied by forward guidance indicating a predisposition to pause afterwards. The announcement at 18:00 GMT will be followed […] More

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