U.S. GDP
Dollar Falters
July 29, 2021
The dollar fell overnight by 0.4% against the euro, peso, Swissie, and DXY weighted index but even more versus the New Zealand dollar and Turkish lira (each 0.7%), loonie (0.6%), and yuan and sterling (each 0.5%). Lesser dollar declines of 0.3% and 0.2% occurred against the Australian dollar and Japanese yen, respectively. Equities, commodity prices, […] More
Signs of Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy Patience
June 24, 2021
Overnight dollar movements were mostly down but slight in magnitude. The U.S. currency slid 0.4% against the Mexican peso, 0.3% relative to the New Zealand dollar, 0.2% versus the yen, and 0.1% against the euro, Aussie dollar, loonie and yuan. The dollar also rose 0.5% versus the Turkish lira and 0.3% against sterling. Relative to […] More
Dollar Rebound Continues While Equities Remain Exposed
October 29, 2020
There’s much to digest today: monetary policy reviews in Japan and Euroland, a first glimpse of U.S. 3Q growth, Covid lockdowns in France and Germany, and latest U.S. political developments as election campaign enters final days. The dollar strengthened overnight by another 1.4% versus the peso, 1.3% against the Australian dollar, 0.8% relative to the […] More
Digesting the Debate and a Slew of Quarter-End Data
September 30, 2020
Last night’s U.S. presidential debate was violently repulsive and leaves an embarrassing after-taste. The dollar hasn’t reacted discernibly, however, with gains of 0.3% against the euro and Swiss franc and 0.2% relative to sterling, no net change relative to the Japanese yen, and dips of 0.1% vis-a-vis the loonie, Aussie dollar and yuan. There have […] More
Comment on U.S. GDP Last Quarter
January 30, 2020
The first estimate of U.S. real GDP growth in the final quarter of 2019 of 2.1% annualized compared to the third-quarter level matches quarterly growth last summer and marks the third straight quarter with growth at or very close to 2.0%. Fourth quarter-over-4Q growth was 2.3%. Calendar 2019 average growth equaled 2.3% as well, lowest […] More
Coronavirus Outbreak Tops Busy List of Developments for Markets to Process
January 30, 2020
Several central banks held their first policy reviews of 2020. Those in Chile and Great Britain left their interest rate structures unchanged at 1.75% and 0.75%, respectively. The National Bank of Ukraine implemented its sixth rate cut in nine months, a 150-basis point reduction to 11.0%. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka engineered its third […] More
More Smoke than Fire
December 20, 2019
A lot of economic data was released on the final day of the final meaningful week of 2019, but the market is settling into yearend mode and showed a muted reaction. The dollar firmed overnight by 0.3% against the euro and Swiss franc but slipped 0.3% relative to sterling. There were dollar upticks of 0.2% […] More
Markets Anticipating Another Fed Rate Cut
October 30, 2019
The dollar marked time overnight as investors await confirmation of further easing from the FOMC. Their expectation of a third 25-basis point reduction since July 31st of the federal funds target is thought by many to be accompanied by forward guidance indicating a predisposition to pause afterwards. The announcement at 18:00 GMT will be followed […] More
Some Optimism from Three Fronts
August 29, 2019
Investors continue to believe that the U.S. and China can work out some kind of truce in the trade war. It is also thought the resignation of the Scottish Conservative Party leader, Ruth Davidson, may impede British Prime Minister Johnson’s ability to pull the U.K. out of the EU without any negotiated deal on October 31. […] More
Dollar Marking Time Ahead of G-20 Summit
June 27, 2019
There’s been little change in the dollar, price of oil, or European equities overnight. The Group of Twenty summit in Osaka starts tomorrow. EU leaders will try again to pick the next ECB president by next week. Ten-year sovereign debt yields dipped a basis point in the United States, Germany and Japan. Asian stock markets […] More
