Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

A Late December Pattern of Dollar Softness Against Europe’s Dominant Currency

December 5, 2022

It’s only December 5th, and the dollar experienced a strong session today as investors second-guessed earlier presumptions that the FOMC will raise its federal funds target by a smaller amount later this week. A cross-current to keep in mind, however, is that the second half of December has historically been a period when the dollar […] More

Next Week’s Menu: December 3 – 9, 2002

December 2, 2022

Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Peru, Serbia, Brazil, Canada, Poland, Australia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Euro Area Finance Ministers Meeting: On Tuesday. Purchasing Managers Surveys: Private/manufacturing for Hong Kong, Singapore, Lebanon and South Africa; for services in Ireland, Australia, Japan, China, India, Euroland, Germany, France, Italy, U.K., Russia, Brazil and the United States; […] More

Coming Week’s Menu: November 26 – December 2, 2022

November 27, 2022

Central Bank Activity: Monetary policy will be reviewed at the Bank of Thailand, and the Federal Reserve publishes its Beige Book of economic conditions in the twelve separate FRS districts. Powell, Cook, Williams, Evans, Logan and Bowman are some of the Fed officials speaking publicly during the period. European Central Bank President Lagarde and Vice […] More

Next Week’s Menu: November 19 – 26, 2022

November 18, 2022

Central Banks: Monetary¬† policy reviews are scheduled next week in Turkey, Sri Lanka, South Africa, Iceland, Sweden, South Korea, New Zealand, Israel, and Hungary. FOMC minutes will be published Wednesday. Bostic and Mester of the Fed have public speaking engagements, and so do Governors Orr and Lowe of the Reserve Banks of New Zealand and […] More

Next Week’s Menu: November 12 -18, 2022

November 11, 2022

Central Banks: Interest rate decisions are scheduled in Thailand, China, Indonesia and the Philippines. Minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia Board meeting will be published. Special Events: U.S. President Biden and China President Xi Jinping hold their first face-to-face meeting as respective national leaders. They will meet in Bali Indonesia on Monday and […] More

Next Week’s Menu: November 5 – 11, 2022

November 4, 2022

Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Poland, Mexico, Peru, Serbia, Romania and Moldova. Mester, Collins, Barkin, Harker, George, and Logan are some of the Federal Reserve officials speaking publicly. ECB Vice President Guidos, Swiss National Bank President Jordan and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem also will be making public comments. A summary of […] More

Next Week’s Menu: October 30 – November 4, 2022

October 28, 2022

Central Banks: The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and central banks in Australia, Norway, Malaysia, Kyrgyzstan, and Czech Republics will be reviewing monetary stances next week. Fed Chairman Powell, BOE Governor Bailey, and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe will hold press conferences. The RBA quarterly Monetary Policy Statement and Bank of Japan Minutes will […] More

Next Week’s Menu: October 22 – 28, 2022

October 21, 2022

Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed at the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of Russia, Central Bank of Brazil and National Bank of Georgia. Quarterly publications of the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report will be released. ECB President Lagarde, […] More

Dollar-U.S. CPI Inflation Different Now from 1970s Experience

October 19, 2022

Intuition suggests that a spike in U.S. inflation would be associated with a depreciating dollar, and that’s what happened from the mid-1960s to 1980. Inflation measures change in the internal purchasing power of U.S. money, and changes in the dollar’s exchange rate quantify changes in the external purchasing power of money. The inflation problem that […] More

Next Week’s Menu: October 15 – 21, 2022

October 14, 2022

Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Ukraine, Turkey, Indonesia and China. The Fed Beige Book of U.S. regional economic conditions gets published on Wednesday, and Bullard, Cook, Bowman, Williams and Jefferson are some of the Fed officials speaking publicly during the period. Lane and Guidos of the European Central Bank also will be […] More