Central Bank of Turkey

German Recession Confirmed and Interest Rate Decisions in South Korea, Turkey and Indonesia

May 25, 2023

U.S. GDP data will be released shortly. In the meantime, German GDP growth last quarter was revised to -0.3% (not annualized) from zero percent reported originally. That’s the second negative quarter in a row and the third drop in the past four quarter, resulting in a negative year-on-year growth rate of -0.5% as well. The […] More

Turkish Central Bank Rate Cut

February 23, 2023

The Central Bank of Turkey‘s policy interest rate has swung widely since 2019. In 2020 when the pandemic first hit, the rate was initially cut by a total 375 basis points to 8.25% in January-May but then hiked 1,075 basis points to 19.0% by March 2021. Later that year, the rate was slashed 500 basis […] More

Reacting to FOMC Minutes and Awaiting More U.S. Data Reports

February 23, 2023

FOMC minutes published Wednesday afternoon confirmed that some policymakers at the Fed leaned toward a 50-basis point hike rather than the 25-bp increase agreed upon. Consideration of a pause in tightening was off the table, and there was widespread consent that more rate hikes will be necessary. Investors now await revised 4Q U.S. GDP figures, […] More

Central Bank Authorities in Norway and Turkey Hold Their Fire

January 19, 2023

Norway’s policy rate was cut from 1.5% to 0% in the early months of the pandemic and not increased until September. Another hike of 25 bps to 0.5% followed in December 2021 and six more totaling 225 basis points to 2.75% followed in 2022, including a 25-bp increase last month. Officials didn’t hike further at […] More

Contrasting Concerns Among Central Bankers and Financial Market Investors

January 19, 2023

As often is the case, the World Economic Forum in Davos has thrust central bank policies into the spotlight. The primary concern of monetary policymakers remains inflation. Federal Reserve District Presidents Mester of Cleveland and Bullard of St. Louis endorsed a need to crank the federal funds rate target above 5.0%. European Central Bank President […] More

Turkey and Indonesia

December 22, 2022

The Central Bank of Turkey did not cut its one-week 9.0% repo rate further at this month’s review, adhering to the pause that was  signaled earlier. The key interest rate had been slashed by a combined 500 basis points at the four previous monthly meetings on top of of 500 basis points of reduction in […] More

Several Central Bank Policy Meetings Elsewhere on This U.S. Thanksgiving Day

November 24, 2022

With the U.S. observing its quintessentially most unique holiday, the dollar continued to back off from recent highs, dropping 0.3% on a weighted DXY basis  overnight and extending its cumulative decline from peak to 7.8%. The dollar lost 0.9% against the yen today and 0.6% versus sterling but just 0.1% relative to the euro. Prices […] More

Turkish Central Bank Rate Cut

October 20, 2022

A bizarre tinge to this Thursday had been injected earlier by the Central Bank of Turkey whose officials slashed its one-week repo rate by 150 basis points to 10.5%. Seven reductions beginning in September 2021 add up to 850 basis points from a then-peak of 19.0%. Turkey’s easing monetary policy cuts against the global grain, […] More

Unusual Developments

October 20, 2022

British Prime Minister Truss just announced her resignation after an unusually brief six weeks in office. Having campaigned as the second coming of Margaret Thatcher, Truss lost the the confidence of her own party when a public roar of protest greeted her program of radical and unfunded tax cuts. Her departure is unlikely to quell […] More

Down the Rabbit Hole of Turkish Monetary Policy

September 22, 2022

While most countries seems to be running away from inflation, Turkey seemingly is taking steps to bring it on. Turkish CPI inflation has accelerated to 80.2% versus a target of 5%, and the lira had collapsed 45% since September 2021. From 19%, the rate was lowered to 14.0% in the final four months of 2021, […] More