Central Bank of Turkey
Parade of Other Central Banks
June 17, 2021
Markets had reacted late Wednesday to the Federal Reserve‘s signal that its initial interest rate hike is likely to occur during 2023, rather than 2024 as implied previously. Several other central banks had scheduled policy reviews whose results were learned subsequently. At the time of the opening of U.S. stock market trading on Thursday, the […] More
Lower Dollar
May 6, 2021
The dollar settled back 0.4% on a weighted basis and against the euro overnight. The dollar also lost 0.5% relative to the Swiss franc, 0.3% versus the loonie, and 0.1% relative to the New Zealand and Australian currencies. The dollar alternatively edged 0.1% higher against the peso and sterling and held steady on balance versus […] More
Spotlight on Central Banks, Fresh Data and, as Always, Covid
April 15, 2021
The uncertain delayed roll-out of the J&J one-shot Covid vaccine is creating consternation, especially in light of high rates of new cases in many places. The National Bank of Ukraine’s policy interest rate was raised a full percentage point to 7.5%. This was the second straight tightening and twice the size of the initial 50-basis […] More
Two Percentage Point Central Bank Rate Hike in Turkey
March 18, 2021
One currency to buck the downward trend of most currencies versus the dollar has been the Turkish lira, which has rebounded about 2% in response to a greater-than-expected 200 basis point increase in the Central Bank of Turkey’s one-week repo rate. Turkish CPI inflation has climbed to 15.6%. At 19%, the central bank interest rate […] More
U.S. Treasury Yield Climbs Sharply in Spite of Fed’s Message and Lifts Dollar
March 18, 2021
Markets aren’t buying yesterday’s dovish policy message from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield roared ten basis points higher overnight to 1.74%, just shy of doubling mid-December’s level. The 10-year British gilt yield rose 6 basis points even though the Bank of England maintained its policy settings, too, and called its current monetary […] More
Turkish Tight Monetary Policy Maintained
February 18, 2021
Priorities are different at the Central Bank of Turkey, whose economy is again experiencing a vicious cycle of accelerating inflation and lira depreciation. Inflation expectations are higher, fed additionally by elevated food prices. From January to May of 2020, officials cut their one-week repo rate five times by a total of 375 basis points, only […] More
Stocks and Dollar Falter as Sovereign Debt Yields Resume Their Rise
February 18, 2021
Overnight dollar losses range from 0.7% against sterling to 0.4% relative to the Aussie and New Zealand dollars, 0.3% versus the euro, Swiss franc and peso and 0.2% relative to the yen and loonie. The trade-weighted dollar is 0.3% softer. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are up four basis points in the U.K., lifting the pound […] More
Slew of U.S. Executive Orders and Central Bank Policy Reviews
January 21, 2021
President Biden’s inaugural address yesterday called for national unity to face down the many severe challenges now juxtaposed. 17 executive orders followed to reverse several polices of the Trump era. Contrary to warnings, inauguration day was free of domestic violence. U.S. stocks experienced their greatest advance on a presidential inauguration day since 1985, when Reagan […] More
Central Bank of Turkey’s Repo Rate Lifted Another 200 Basis Points
December 24, 2020
2020 was a very active year for Turkish monetary policy. Five repo rate reductions in January-May totaled 375 basis points but were followed by sharp hikes of 200 basis points in both September and today, flanked around a huge 475-basis point increase in November. The rate benchmark is ending the year at 17% compared to […] More
Some Important Developments this Christmas Eve
December 24, 2020
Many markets were either shut all day or closed early. Nevertheless, investors are digesting some significant developments: The Central Bank of Turkey hiked its one-week repo rate by a greater-than-expected two percentage points to 17%. The rate was 12% at the start of 2020 and 8.25% in June-August. EU/British trade negotiators reached a tentative accord, […] More
