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Watching Cracks in the Ceasefire and Rising Inflation While Awaiting Some Key U.S. Economic Data
April 9, 2026
The U.S./Iranian ceasefire got off to a very shaky start. Amazingly, Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon was left out of the deal at least if the American narrative is to be believed. Iran is recounting a different story and frankly a more credible rendition of what was agreed. Not only did Israel’s assault of southern Lebanon […] More
Narrowly Mixed Dollar as Investors Await U.S. CPI Data Tomorrow
February 12, 2026
There were 227k new U.S. jobless insurance claims last week, down a bit from the last week of January but more or less aligned with what had been expected. The net takeaway from yesterday’s January jobs figures was that, excluding other policy considerations, better employment growth than seen during much of 2025 probably delays the […] More
Markets Spooked By a Looming U.S. Supreme Court Ruling on the Legality of 2025 Tariff Hikes
January 14, 2026
The Supreme Court will be revealing its decisions on several cases at 10:00 EST today, and it’s possible that the decision on Trump’s large and widespread tariff hikes may be included in this batch. Those tariffs hold a foundational role in the whole economic and foreign policies of the second Trump presidency. A ruling striking […] More
Markets Steady As Investors Await ECB Decision, U.S. August CPI Figures, and Fallout from Shooting of Charlie Kirk
September 11, 2025
Two and a half hours prior to U.S. released consumer price data, the weighted DXY dollar index was marginally above Wednesday closing levels. Gains ranged from 0.1% against the euro and Swiss franc to 0.3% relative to the yen and Canadian, New Zealand and Australian currencies. Ten-year sovereign debt yields had risen a basis point […] More
Many Data Releases and Central Bank Interest Rate Announcements
August 7, 2025
Reciprocal tariffs became effective today. The scale of their increase is profound, and reactions in America to the new tax are extremely polarized and aligned with political affiliations. For Trump supporters, today is a great day, heralding a large new source of fiscal revenue and a rebirth of the country’s manufacturing sector. For political opponents, […] More
FOMC Minutes, Tariff Mahem, and a Whole Lot of Price and Industrial Production Data Releases
July 10, 2025
People are seeing what they want to see in yesterday afternoon’s publication by the Fed of minutes from the June 17-18 FOMC meeting. The minutes retain a majority view that embodies the likelihood of two 25-basis point rate cuts later this year. But support for a cut at this month’s policy review was pretty small, […] More
Tariff Confusion, Inflation, Industrial Production, and Continuing Financial Market Volatility
April 10, 2025
President Trump’s peek-a-boo tariff policy is putting Lincoln’s warning that you cannot fool all of the people all of the time to a test. Investors got severely whiplashed yesterday afternoon by the 90-day tariff pause. The subsequent sharp rally in U.S. equities extended in Asian and European markets overnight, but U.S. futures prior to today’s […] More
Sour Investor Mood Ahead of U.S. PPI Release
March 13, 2025
U.S. equities got only a dead-cat bounce from Wednesday’s slightly better-than-expected consumer price data and are back showing red ahead of producer price figures due shortly. With his assortment of U.S. policy about-faces, President Trump has acquired a Grinch-like aura in the world financial community. At this writing, The dollar is down 0.2% against the […] More
Awaiting Reciprocal Tariff Details and U.S. Producer Price Data
February 13, 2025
America’s second inflation shoe this week, the January PPI report, is due within the half hour. President Trump has also promised an announcement today on “reciprocal tariffs,” conceivably the biggest round of levies thus far, and he will be meeting today with Indian Prime Minister Modi. A phone call earlier this week with Russian President […] More
Multi-Pronged Blow to Stocks and Bonds but Dollar Soars
January 10, 2025
The People’s Bank of China announced a temporary suspension to its purchases of government bonds. The U.S. Labor Dept’s December employment situation report revealed more strength than forecast, notably in non-farm payroll jobs whose jump of 256k was the most in nine months and about 100k greater than the market consensus. Employment expanded by almost […] More
