National Bank of Serbia

Second Serbian Central Bank Rate Hike

May 12, 2022

The National Bank of Serbia, which in April authorized its first interest rate hike in over ten years, just matched the 50-basis point size of that initial increase. A noted above, Serbian CPI inflation has accelerated more than threefold over the past year to 9.6% and is well above target. The new central bank interest […] More

Intensifying Global Risk Aversion

May 12, 2022

Equities hit an air pocket on Thursday in the Pacific Rim and Europe, closing down 2.2% in Taiwan and Hong Kong, 3.2% lower in Indonesia, and off 1.8% in Japan and Australia, 2.1% in India, 1.6% in South Korea and 1.9% in Singapore. Share price declines of 2.0% or more have so far occurred in […] More

50-Basis Point Interest Rate Hike in Serbia

April 7, 2022

The National Bank of Serbia became the latest monetary authority to tighten its stance, raising its policy interest rate by a half percentage point to 1.50%. Such had been at 1.0% since a 25-basis point cut in December 2020 that culminated 125 basis points of reduction during the first year of the pandemic. Officials reacted […] More

Global Demand Starting to Be Constrained by Inflation and Tighter Monetary Policies

April 7, 2022

This week’s equity sell-off extended into Asian markets overnight. European losses, in contrast, have been reversed partly, and U.S. stock futures are little changed. Equities dropped between 1% and 2% in Taiwan, Japan, China, Hong Kong, and India but have rebounded so far by 1.3% in Spain and Italy, 0.9% in France, and 0.7% in […] More

ECB Surprise, a Diplomatic Failure, and Many Price Data Releases

March 10, 2022

In light of risks posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, today’s European Central Bank policy review was not expected to push ahead with its QE exiting strategy, but in fact the pace of the phase-out of asset purchase program bond buying was stepped up: EUR 40 billion will be bought next month, then EUR 30 […] More

Several Central Banks Left Rates Steady, But Fresh Price Data Fan Concern

February 10, 2022

The Reserve Bank of India‘s repo and reverse repo rates were left unchanged at 4.0% and 3.35%. A released statement explains, “The MPC notes that inflation is likely to moderate in H1:2022-23 and move closer to the target rate thereafter, providing room to remain accommodative” And adds “the ongoing domestic recovery is still incomplete and […] More

Fresh Dose of Moderate Risk Aversion Attributed to Covid Concerns

December 9, 2021

Ten-year sovereign debt yields retreated overnight by four basis points in the Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain, three basis points in the United States and two basis points in Great Britain. Safe haven demand lifted the U.S. dollar by 0.6% against the Swiss franc and Mexican peso, 0.5% versus the euro and Chinese yuan, 0.4% […] More

Global Stock Markets and Dollar Pause

November 9, 2021

The strength of equities in October and the first week of November was fed by the tapering patience of major central banks, evidence of continuing economic recovery in spite of Covid and inflation, and robust corporate earnings. But new concerns are adding to the pile. Biden’s still-unannounced choice to lead the Fed Board of Governors […] More

National Bank of Serbia

October 7, 2021

Policymakers at the National Bank of Serbia, unlike several other central banks earlier this month, did not raise their key interest rate at the latest review. Following four reductions totaling 125 basis points between March and December last year, such will remain at a record low of 1.0%. However, an initial snugging of monetary policy […] More

A Very Temporary Solution in the U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate

October 7, 2021

Progress has been made on averting a U.S. debt default that would otherwise have occurred in the middle of this month, but the reprieve only buys about two extra months. Even so, two months are better than nothing, so equity markets rallied overnight. And the dollar and price of oil moved lower. The dollar fell […] More

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