Bank Indonesia
Tech Stock Rally, Better German Economic News, and a Surprise Indonesian Central Bank Rate Hike
April 24, 2024
A recent concern had been that delayed Fed easing would particularly hurt coming earnings in the tech sector, but first quarter earnings have exceeded expectations. Tesla’s share price leaped over 10% in after-hours trading yesterday, and the Nasdaq futures shows a 0.7% overnight advance at this moment. Asian equities closed up 2.4% in Japan, 2.0% […] More
A Focus on Central Banks, Particularly the Fed
March 20, 2024
At 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT), the Federal Open Market Committee will telegraph the decisions from its second scheduled policy meeting of 2024. The federal funds rate target will be left at 5.25-5.50% where such has been since last July. An updated set of forecasts also at 14:00 EDT will provide the first indication of any […] More
Stock Market Interference
February 21, 2024
China’s government introduced a new weapon to prop of their stock market, a ban on net selling at daily market openings and closings. The Hang Seng and Shanghai composite indices consequently closed up 1.6% and 1.0%, but stock market indices in Singapore, Australia, India, Thailand and Japan closed down by 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.4% and […] More
Intensifying Equity Correction and Much Fresh Data to Absorb
January 17, 2024
The optimistic investor mood of late 2023 has evaporated. Hawkish central banker-speak has quelled hopes for an early start to the unwinding of tight monetary policy stances, and markets are also concerned about China’s economic performance, Former President Trump’s reelection prospects, and the risks of a full-blown multi-front war in the Middle East and rising […] More
More Central Bank Decisions and U.S. Stock Futures Rebound ahead of GDP Data Releases
December 21, 2023
After Wednesday’s big round of profit-taking in U.S. equities, stock futures show a rebound of about 0.5% in pre-open trading. A final estimate of U.S. GDP growth in 3Q will be released at 08:30 EST (13:30 GMT); the prior estimate showed a sizzling 5.2% quarter-on-quarter pace expressed at an annualized rate. In other stock market […] More
A Further Surge in Market Interest Rates Ahead of Biden & Powell Speeches Later Today
October 19, 2023
The 30-year Treasury yield jumped to a new high overnight of 5.07%, and the 10-year Treasury gained 7 basis points and is within 3 basis points of 5.00% versus 3.68% at the start of 2023. Surging interest rates continue to drain enthusiasm from stocks. Share prices overnight tumbled 2.5% in Hong Kong, 1.9% in Japan […] More
A Parade of Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and A Shift Away from Risky Assets
September 21, 2023
Sovereign debt has been well-bid in the wake of the Fed’s message not to expect interest rates to fall much in 2024. Many other central banks have chimed in with hawkish messages today. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose overnight by nine basis points in Italy, seven basis points in the U.K., six bps in the […] More
Mega-Hike in Turkish Central Bank Rate and a Republican Presidential Debate that Changes Little
August 24, 2023
The Central Bank of Turkey’s key interest rate was raised to 25.0% from 17.5%. This biggest move so far followed increases of 250 basis points in July and 650 bps in June and catapults the rate well beyond the prior peak of 19.0% for five months from March 2021 to August 2021. The size of […] More
Softer German Business Climate, Unchanged Indonesian Interest Rate and Day 1 of FOMC Policy Meeting
July 25, 2023
World financial markets were comparatively calm overnight as investors await tomorrow’s FOMC interest rate announcement and press conference. The dollar edged up 0.2% versus the euro and 0.1% against the Canadian dollar overnight, held steady against the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and New Zealand dollar, and fell 0.6% relative to the Chinese yuan, 0.4% vis-a-vis […] More
Some Surprises But Not All in Same Direction
April 18, 2023
Chinese data reported this Tuesday exceeded expectations, but officials cautioned that solid recovery isn’t yet firmly entrenched. Real GDP last quarter rose 2.2% on quarter, and the prior quarter’s change was revised to an increase of 0.6% from the earlier estimated zero percent quarterly growth rate. Year-on-year growth of 4.5% in 1Q was up from […] More
