Japanese trade balance

Don’t Even Think that Monetary Tightening Is Going to Pause

November 17, 2022

Central bankers in the United States and around the world are doubling down to quell any investor notions that monetary tightening is about to pause while assessing the delayed results of restraint already in the pipeline. That was the message from recent comments by the Kansas City and San Francisco Fed Presidents and the actions […] More

Unusual Developments

October 20, 2022

British Prime Minister Truss just announced her resignation after an unusually brief six weeks in office. Having campaigned as the second coming of Margaret Thatcher, Truss lost the the confidence of her own party when a public roar of protest greeted her program of radical and unfunded tax cuts. Her departure is unlikely to quell […] More

Investors Spooked Ahead of Today’s FOMC Minutes, Not Reacting Immediately to Other Data

August 17, 2022

FOMC Minutes due at 14:00 EDT are expected to accentuate the primacy of restoring price stability even if that means a continuing rapid rise of interest rates amid a slowing economy. The dollar, which has done well in times when the mood has turned risk averse, advanced overnight by 1.2% against the Australian dollar, 0.9% […] More

An Historic FOMC Meeting on Tap Amid High Inflation and Some Cautious Optimism about the Pandemic and Diplomatic Efforts for a Russian Cease-Fire

March 16, 2022

The size of today’s initial federal funds rate hike is expected to be 25 basis points. I personally would prefer to see a bolder opening move of 50 basis points, as a symbolic gesture that Fed officials recognize that interest rate lift-off is starting late. But the credibility of forward guidance lies in not whip-sawing […] More

Dollar Little Changed on Day that Saw Many Central Bank Meetings and Thick Menu of Released Data

January 20, 2022

The weighted dollar edged up by a marginal 0.1% overnight. It gained 0.1% against the euro and Swiss franc but is unchanged against the yen and sterling and down 0.1% versus the Canadian dollar. Stock market action in the Pacific Rim was widely varied, with Japan Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indices closing 1.1% […] More

Strengthening Dollar

September 16, 2021

Broadly-based overnight appreciations of the dollar include gains of 0.7% against the Swiss franc and Turkish lira, 0.5% versus the euro, kiwi, and sterling, 0.4% relative to the yen and Australian dollar, and 0.2% vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. The DXY weighted dollar index advanced 0.4% and is just 1.9% below its 52-week […] More

Risk Aversion Subsiding for Second Straight Day

July 21, 2021

U.S. share prices have risen somewhat more than 0.5% this Wednesday after Yesterday’s strong resurgence. European stock markets have recorded even sharper gains of 1.7% in the U.K., 1.9% in France, 1.4% in Germany and 2.7% in Spain. Second-quarter corporate earnings reports are dominating financial market sentiment. The dollar is currently trading around today’s lows […] More

Dollar Close to a Two-Month Low

April 19, 2021

The dollar kicked off this third week of April with a 0.5% decline on a weighted basis overnight. The U.S. currency lost 0.7% against the Swiss franc, 0.6% versus the yen, Australian and New Zealand dollars, 0.5% relative to sterling, and 0.4% against the euro and Mexican peso. To some extent, the dollar’s slippage may […] More

Awaiting Today’s Fed Forecasts and Powell’s Press Conference

March 17, 2021

Against the backdrop of a significantly improved U.S. economic growth outlook this year and rising U.S. and global inflation lately, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield  climbed from 0.89% in mid-December to 1.01% when the FOMC last met to a 13-month high of 1.67% today, the second scheduled FOMC meeting of 2021 figures to be the […] More

Covid News Proceeding on Two Tracks, While Dollar Slipping but Slows

November 18, 2020

There’s been more good news regarding Covid vaccine developments as Pfizer’s product, like Moderna’s, has been shown to be 95% effective. Before vaccines can be distributed widely, however, current spikes in cases and deaths point to a very difficult winter ahead for public health and economic activity. New U.S. cases and deaths yesterday approached 160,000 […] More

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