Japanese trade balance
Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Up
July 17, 2025
Broadly based dollar rises overnight followed Trump’s denial that he plans to fire Powell and a Beige Book signaling modest to moderate growth in most Federal Reserve districts. There was some relief, too, that yesterday’s producer price report was less alarming the the consumer price data released Tuesday. Several more U.S. data reports are on […] More
Weakness of Bonds and Dollar Extends Further
May 21, 2025
Ten-year sovereign debt yields climbed overnight by six basis points the U.K., France, Italy and Spain, by five basis points in the United States and Germany, and by two basis points in Japan. The weighted DXY dollar index fell 0.5% so far this Wednesday to a two-week low. The intra-day low of 99.4 compares with […] More
Stock Market Interference
February 21, 2024
China’s government introduced a new weapon to prop of their stock market, a ban on net selling at daily market openings and closings. The Hang Seng and Shanghai composite indices consequently closed up 1.6% and 1.0%, but stock market indices in Singapore, Australia, India, Thailand and Japan closed down by 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.4% and […] More
Weighted DXY Dollar Index Climbs Back Above 100 Level
July 20, 2023
Against specific other currencies, the dollar recovered overnight by 0.5% against sterling,0.4% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc, 0.3% versus the Mexican peso, 0.2% relative to the euro and yen, and 0.1% against the loonie and kiwi. A six-basis point rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eclipsed today’s one-basis point increases in the comparable German bund […] More
Optimism Growing that U.S. Debt Default Can Be Averted; Inflation Still Too High; and G7 Leaders Gathering in Hiroshima for Annual Summit
May 18, 2023
Negotiator comments that progress is being made in the U.S. debt ceiling talks is better than the alternative, but investor caution is advised. The vote to elect Kevin McCarthy Speaker of the House underscored the great difficulty in getting Republican members to agree on anything constructive. Best to assume that a U.S. default has been […] More
Contrasting Concerns Among Central Bankers and Financial Market Investors
January 19, 2023
As often is the case, the World Economic Forum in Davos has thrust central bank policies into the spotlight. The primary concern of monetary policymakers remains inflation. Federal Reserve District Presidents Mester of Cleveland and Bullard of St. Louis endorsed a need to crank the federal funds rate target above 5.0%. European Central Bank President […] More
Don’t Even Think that Monetary Tightening Is Going to Pause
November 17, 2022
Central bankers in the United States and around the world are doubling down to quell any investor notions that monetary tightening is about to pause while assessing the delayed results of restraint already in the pipeline. That was the message from recent comments by the Kansas City and San Francisco Fed Presidents and the actions […] More
Unusual Developments
October 20, 2022
British Prime Minister Truss just announced her resignation after an unusually brief six weeks in office. Having campaigned as the second coming of Margaret Thatcher, Truss lost the the confidence of her own party when a public roar of protest greeted her program of radical and unfunded tax cuts. Her departure is unlikely to quell […] More
Investors Spooked Ahead of Today’s FOMC Minutes, Not Reacting Immediately to Other Data
August 17, 2022
FOMC Minutes due at 14:00 EDT are expected to accentuate the primacy of restoring price stability even if that means a continuing rapid rise of interest rates amid a slowing economy. The dollar, which has done well in times when the mood has turned risk averse, advanced overnight by 1.2% against the Australian dollar, 0.9% […] More
An Historic FOMC Meeting on Tap Amid High Inflation and Some Cautious Optimism about the Pandemic and Diplomatic Efforts for a Russian Cease-Fire
March 16, 2022
The size of today’s initial federal funds rate hike is expected to be 25 basis points. I personally would prefer to see a bolder opening move of 50 basis points, as a symbolic gesture that Fed officials recognize that interest rate lift-off is starting late. But the credibility of forward guidance lies in not whip-sawing […] More
