Euroland current account
Nothing but Red on the Screens
May 19, 2022
It’s no longer about the data, or the news for that matter. A self-perpetuating technically-driven downward dynamic has taken over financial markets. For the Nasdaq, the bear market threshold was breached a while ago. S&P futures are within a percent of bear market territory, and its only a matter of time before the Dow joins […] More
Dollar Strengthens With Fed Perceived Likely to Widen Disparity Between its Policy Stance and Those of Other Central Banks
April 22, 2022
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other Fed policymakers continue to go out of the way to encourage speculation that a series of 50-basis point interest rates are on the way. The European Central Bank is also shifting priorities but transitioning at a much slower pace. The Bank of Japan is dug in, committed to an […] More
More Data and Continuing Confusion Regarding Russian Intentions
February 18, 2022
The dollar rose 0.3% and 0.2% overnight against the Turkish lira and Japanese yen but fell 0.2% relative to the loonie, Australian dollar, Mexican peso and Chinese yuan. There’s been no net change against the pound sterling and Swiss franc, nor in the weighted DXY dollar index. Equities sold off heavily yesterday on fears of […] More
Highest British and German CPI Inflation in 357 and 354 months respectively
January 19, 2022
Inflation and Covid-19 infections remain elevated around the world. Investors at the moment are reacting mostly to the inflation numbers, believing that economic activity has become more insulated against the pandemic. The expectation that central banks will continue tilting away from stimulus lifted ten-year sovereign debt yields overnight by five basis pints in the U.K., […] More
Markets Looking Ahead to Next Week’s Central Bank Policy Meetings
September 17, 2021
The Federal Reserve heads a long list of central banks reviewing monetary policy next week. Among the others on tap are central banks in Japan, Turkey, the U.K., Switzerland, Sweden, Indonesia, Brazil, China, South Africa, Taiwan, Norway and the Philippines. Investors hope to get more clarification on when Fed will begin tapering bond purchases and […] More
Divergent Trends Continue in Equities (Down) and the Dollar (Up)
August 19, 2021
Equity markets on Thursday tumbled 2.7% in Taiwan, 2.1% in Indonesia and Hong Kong, 1.9% in South Korea, 1.4% in Singapore, 1.1% in Japan but just 0.6% in China and 0.5% in Australia. In Europe thus far, share prices are down over 2.0% in Germany and France and by more than 1.5% in the U.K. […] More
Dollar and Yen Continue benefiting from Post-FOMC Risk Aversion
June 18, 2021
The dollar edged 0.1% higher overnight against its weighted DXY index to its strongest level since April 12. In bilateral terms, the U.S. currency advanced 0.4% against the Australian dollar, 0.3% versus the New Zealand dollar and sterling, 0.2% relative to the Swiss franc and 0.1% vis-a-vis the loonie, but the dollar dipped 0.1% against […] More
Dollar Close to a Two-Month Low
April 19, 2021
The dollar kicked off this third week of April with a 0.5% decline on a weighted basis overnight. The U.S. currency lost 0.7% against the Swiss franc, 0.6% versus the yen, Australian and New Zealand dollars, 0.5% relative to sterling, and 0.4% against the euro and Mexican peso. To some extent, the dollar’s slippage may […] More
Plunge in Turkish Lira after Central Bank President There is Sacked
March 22, 2021
The mercurial political leader of Turkey, President Erdogan, fired Turkey’s central bank president on Saturday, two days after the 1-week repo rate had been raised to 19% from 17%. In the face of rapidly accelerating Turkish inflation, which reached 15.6% last month, the central bank policy rate had also been lifted by 200 basis points […] More
Counting Down the Days
October 20, 2020
It’s T-minus two weeks to the U.S. presidential and congressional election. In national polls, Biden leads by just under 10 percentage points, but suspense continues because of Trump’s refusal to say he will honor the result, the electoral college distortion that necessitates a Democrat to secure a 5% or greater popular vote plurality in order […] More
