Deeper Analysis
July 2026 in Figures
July 31, 2026
The net July changes in the table below for the most part understates the extreme financial market turbulence caused by the re-escalating Middle East war, resulting sharp rise in the price of oil, rollout of a new U.S. tariff plan, extreme fires ravaging Europe and other parts of the world, and new regime at the […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: August 1-7, 2026
July 31, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in India, Brazil, Mexico, Moldova, Romania, Armenia and the Czech Republic. Holidays & Events: Canada observes an August Civic Holiday on August 3, and OPEC+ ministers meet tomorrow. Purchasing Manager Surveys: Load of July surveys will be reported during the period. Scheduled U.S. Economic Data Releases: Quarterly productivity […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
WTI Oil Back Above $85, Signs of Higher Inflation, and Japanese Intervention But No Rate Hike
July 31, 2026
What started as a war between the U.S. and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other has broadened into a regional conflict that threatens to engulf Europe with a triple shipping choke-hold at the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Suez Canal. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Investors Absorbing U.S. and Euroland GDP Data and Expressing Disappointment that Fed Didn’t Raise its Interest Rate
July 30, 2026
In the wake of the Fed’s policy decision, equity markets have swung widely, and the dollar has declined, with additional overnight losses of 0.9% against the South Korean won, 0.8% relative to the kiwi, 0.4% relative to the Japanese yen, Australian dollar and Mexican peso, 0.2% versus the Swiss franc and Indian rupee, and 0.1% […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Statement and Press Conference
July 29, 2026
The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75% where such has been since a reduction of 25 basis points announced last December 10th. This was the fifth of eight scheduled policy reviews in 2026, and each of them has ended with the same result. Whereas the previous meeting in […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
July 29, 2026
It’s almost certainly only a matter of time before the federal funds targeted interest rate is increased to counter above-target inflation and the growing risk of a rise in medium-term expected inflation. Seven and a half months have passed since the cut announced on December 10 put the target at 3.50-3.75%. Compared to then, monthly […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Suspense Around Today’s Fed Decision, Renewed Military Strikes in Mideast & Continuing Pressure on Semiconductors
July 29, 2026
It is thought that the Fed will most likely hold off until the next FOMC meeting in September before raising its 3.5-3.75% interest rate target, but the chance of it happening today at 18:00 GMT is not insignificant. Chairman Warsh’s press conference starts at 18:30. The U.S. claims to have repelled several Iranian missiles aimed […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Continuing Slide of Tech Stocks But Dollar Holding Steady
July 28, 2026
Tuesday’s headlines include a 6.8 earthquake in Japan’s southernmost island around 6:30 GMT (16:30 local time), continuing selling pressure on chipmakers and other AI-related stocks, differing narratives concerning resumed diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war, and the start of the two-day FOMC meeting. Nasdaq futures are 0.8% lower in contrast to a 0.7% pre-open […] More
Central Bank Watch
Very Slight Tightening of Monetary Policy in Singapore
July 27, 2026
In Singapore where interest rate policy is subordinated to exchange rate management, an unexpected further tightening of monetary policy was announced today. This was the second such adjustment in a row by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which reviews policy only on quarterly basis. As in April, the upward slope of the targeted effective Singapore […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Oil Price Drop to the Rescue
July 27, 2026
(129) As is often the case, President Trump chose a weekend when news cycles are less responsive for another twist in his Iran war strategy. U.S. air strikes were suspended, and Iran in kind did the same in its campaign against U.S. military targets in the region. In knee-jerk fashion, oil prices plunged 6.8% to […] More
