British retail sales
Spotlight on Middle East Tensions and Fed Policy Intentions
April 19, 2024
As promised, Israel responded to Iran’s prior missile attack, but the retaliation thus far has been tempered — just a few drone attacks against an Iranian military base near Isfahan that were shot down. Damages were light, and neither Israeli nor Iranian media are fanning the incident, which provoked initial financial confusion that helped depress […] More
Growing Confidence that Central Bank Interest Rates Are Coming
March 22, 2024
Fed Chairman’s reassuring press conference, central bank rate cuts in Switzerland, Brazil, Mexico, and the Czech Republic, and a hint from the German Bundesbank president that the ECB Governing Council might consider easing by early summer have lifted the mood of investors. The dollar has withstood this shift in sentiment. The weighted DXY dollar index […] More
Marking Time Ahead of U.S. Producer Price Release
February 16, 2024
The dollar is unchanged from Thursday closing levels against the euro, sterling, yuan, peso and Canadian dollar. The greenback has dipped 0.1% versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars but edged up 0.1% relative to the Swiss franc. Chinese markets remain shut as they’ve been all week in observance of the start of the Year […] More
Equities Ending Week on an Up-Note; Dollar a Touch Softer
January 19, 2024
Stock markets in the Pacific Rim recorded Friday gains of 2.6% in Taiwan, 1.4% in Japan, 1.3% in South Korea and 1.0% in Australia, but Chinese and Hong Kong share prices dipped 0.5%. U.S. stock futures are up around 0.5%, and major European markets are up but by less. Ten-year sovereign debt yields in Europe […] More
Softer Growth Into the Holidays
November 17, 2023
With the Thanksgiving holiday less than a week away, 2023 is moving into the home stretch with plenty of unanswered questions. Investors wonder how the twin wars in Ukraine and Gaza will resolve and whether the federal funds rate has in fact crested and, if so, how long it will stay at its peak. Will […] More
Move Out of Equities Drives Back Long-Term Interest Rates
August 18, 2023
Ten-year sovereign debt yields dropped overnight by 11 basis points in Italy, 10 bps in Germany, France and Spain, 7 bps in Great Britain, 4 bps in the United States and 1 basis point in Japan. Global equity markets experienced their most difficult week in five months. The tide didn’t turn as the week draws […] More
Dollar Firm With Focus on Inflation and Central Bank Policy
July 21, 2023
The dollar rose overnight by 1.2% against the yen, 0.8% and 0.6% relative to the New Zealand and Australian currencies, 0.7% versus the Turkish lira and 0.2% vis-a-vis sterling. The euro kept pace with the dollar, and the Russian ruble jumped 1.1%. These movements correlated well with perceived monetary policy stances. A full percentage point […] More
Indications that a Debt Ceiling Deal Will Be Reached in Time
May 26, 2023
While no deal has been attained yet to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, both sides of the discussions are expressing optimism, and investors are anticipating that the U.S. will not default. That’s why equities are higher, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also up two basis points to an 11-week high after the release […] More
Equity Slide Gets Extended
February 17, 2023
After decelerating in many countries during the final months of 2022, inflationary pressures intensified last month, and it didn’t take long for U.S. monetary officials to ramp up the projected path of interest rate hikes during the first half of this year. Federal Reserve District Presidents Mester of Cleveland and Bullard of St. Louis each […] More
Spooky Friday
October 21, 2022
With Halloween just ten days away, investors are hitting the weekend in a very defensive mood. Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harker added to the hawkish drumbeat, predicting a Fed rate above 4% by December. Dollar strength against a whole spectrum of other currencies is casting a big shadow over expected corporate earnings in the coming […] More
