British retail sales

Move Out of Equities Drives Back Long-Term Interest Rates

August 18, 2023

Ten-year sovereign debt yields dropped overnight by 11 basis points in Italy, 10 bps in Germany, France and Spain, 7 bps in Great Britain, 4 bps in the United States and 1 basis point in Japan. Global equity markets experienced their most difficult week in five months. The tide didn’t turn as the week draws […] More

Dollar Firm With Focus on Inflation and Central Bank Policy

July 21, 2023

The dollar rose overnight by 1.2% against the yen, 0.8% and 0.6% relative to the New Zealand and Australian currencies, 0.7% versus the Turkish lira and 0.2% vis-a-vis sterling. The euro kept pace with the dollar, and the Russian ruble jumped 1.1%. These movements correlated well with perceived monetary policy stances. A full percentage point […] More

Indications that a Debt Ceiling Deal Will Be Reached in Time

May 26, 2023

While no deal has been attained yet  to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, both sides of the discussions are expressing optimism, and investors are anticipating that the U.S. will not default. That’s why equities are higher, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also up two basis points to an 11-week high after the release […] More

Equity Slide Gets Extended

February 17, 2023

After decelerating in many countries during the final months of 2022, inflationary pressures intensified last month, and it didn’t take long for U.S. monetary officials to ramp up the projected path of interest rate hikes during the first half of this year. Federal Reserve District Presidents Mester of Cleveland and Bullard of St. Louis each […] More

Spooky Friday

October 21, 2022

With Halloween just ten days away, investors are hitting the weekend in a very defensive mood. Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harker added to the hawkish drumbeat, predicting a Fed rate above 4% by December. Dollar strength against a whole spectrum of other currencies is casting a big shadow over expected corporate earnings in the coming […] More

Intensifying Exodus from Equities

September 16, 2022

Led by a nearly 21% overnight plunge in Fed Ex shares, key U.S. stock market indices are down about 1%. Stock markets in the Pacific Rim had closed down 2.3% in China, 2.3% in China, 1.9% in Indonesia, 1.8% in India, 1.3% in Australia and 1.1% in Japan. The German Dax and Paris Cac are […] More

Softer Dollar and Yen

June 24, 2022

The dollar firmed 0.2% overnight against the yen but otherwise slipped 0.3% against the Swiss franc, peso, and kiwi, 0.2% relative to the loonie and sterling, and 0.1% versus the euro and on a weighted DXY basis. Equity markets are headed for a weekly advance, which has been a rare occurrence in 2022. The street […] More

Dollar Strengthens With Fed Perceived Likely to Widen Disparity Between its Policy Stance and Those of Other Central Banks

April 22, 2022

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other Fed policymakers continue to go out of the way to encourage speculation that a series of 50-basis point interest rates are on the way. The European Central Bank is also shifting priorities but transitioning at a much slower pace. The Bank of Japan is dug in, committed to an […] More

More Data and Continuing Confusion Regarding Russian Intentions

February 18, 2022

The dollar rose 0.3% and 0.2% overnight against the Turkish lira and Japanese yen but fell 0.2% relative to the loonie, Australian dollar, Mexican peso and Chinese yuan. There’s been no net change against the pound sterling and Swiss franc, nor in the weighted DXY dollar index. Equities sold off heavily yesterday on fears of […] More

Rout of Risky Assets Continues

January 21, 2022

The third week of January has seen relentless selling pressure against riskier financial assets, and Friday is not providing any respite. At next Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Powell is widely expected to signal a likely rate hike in March and other coming steps to rein in the accommodative policy stance. Equities around the […] More