Euro
Euro Sinks 0.6% to 16-Month Low of $1.1240
November 12, 2018
The optics went very poorly for U.S. President Trump at centennial WWI Armistice observances in Paris, where he had to scrap a cemetery visit, was left out of other shared activities, heard a sharp rebuke of nationalism by French President Macron, and endured a stream of troubling political developments happening back in Washington. Currency markets […] More
Super-Charged Euro and Other Big Market Changes after French Election
April 24, 2017
The centrist candidate, Macron, and not anti-euro Le Pen, won the first round of France’s presidential election on Sunday. Le Pen came in second place with 2.5 percentage points fewer votes than Macron, but initial opinion polls are giving Macron a decisive edge heading into their run-off vote on May 7. In response, the dollar […] More
Currency Management Norms Under Threat
May 23, 2016
A statement released April 15 by G20 finance ministers and central bank governors reaffirmed a position against currency manipulation that represents a coordinated stance that’s been in place already for a long time: Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will consult closely on […] More
The Mother of All Resistance Levels is Par (1:1)
May 11, 2016
Currencies readily alternate between cycles of appreciation and depreciation, but it is a much rarer event for a currency’s unit of account to transition from being weaker than another to being worth more. Put differently, movements through par, or in the case of USD/JPY 100:1, happen very infrequently. Take the key EUR/USD relationship, now almost […] More
Covert Currency War Games
May 3, 2016
Even with U.S. monetary stimulus being throttled back and other central banks pressing harder on the stimulus pedal, the pace of policy change thus far and in the future will be too gradual to make a huge difference in a direct way through their influence on short- and long-term interest rate differentials. The cutting edge […] More
A Most Peculiar Year
March 2, 2016
Face it, anticipating the movements of currencies has never been intuitive, and it’s hard to recall a time quite as confusing as the present. The United States, Britain, eurozone, Japan, China and Brazil each face economic and political crossroads of enormous importance. United States: The presidential primaries have highlighted an extremely high level of voter […] More
The Year is Still Young, Yet Already Full of Surprise
February 17, 2016
The first eighth of 2016 was eventful. The surprises are not limited to China and other developing economies, either. Financial markets have been very volatile. Although near the middle of its high-low range thus far, the price of oil is down around 16% on balance, and gold is more than $100 above its end-2015 level. […] More
Tougher Dollar Sledding Against the Euro and Yen
February 1, 2016
The strong dollar performance of 2015 carried over into the first month of 2016 against a large number of currencies. Appreciation last month was most pronounced against commodity sensitive currencies and emerging economy monies and also included the performances against the Swiss franc and sterling. The dollar’s two most influential relationships moved only slightly on […] More
What to Make of Three Helter Skelter Weeks that Felt Like a Year
January 21, 2016
Central bankers tend to be cautious and not prone to scrapping a forecast on the basis of a couple of difficult weeks when developments haven’t jived with baseline assumptions. But there was the ECB President today declaring that “downside risks have increased again and citing a trio of causes — increased uncertainty surrounding emerging markets, […] More
Euro Resistance Near $1.1000 Continuing
December 29, 2015
The dollar is unchanged against the euro, Swiss franc, Chinese renminbi, and Japanese yen. The euro’s uptrend has met repeated resistance around $1.097. Spain’s unsettled political outlook has been a depressant. The greenback is 0.2% firmer against the loonie and sterling but 0.3% softer relative to the Australian and New Zealand currencies. Following a 2.0%plus […] More
