Currency Management Norms Under Threat

May 23, 2016

A statement released April 15 by G20 finance ministers and central bank governors reaffirmed a position against currency manipulation that represents a coordinated stance that’s been in place already for a long time: Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability.  We will consult closely on […] More

A Fearful Start to the New Year

January 4, 2016

China’s stock market was halted automatically after a 7% plunge.  The yuan fell 0.7% and is 5.0% weaker against the dollar than its opening level of 2014. China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index dropped 0.4 points to 48.2, a three-month low and fifth consecutive sub-50 reading in a row.  Such scores indicate a contraction of factory-sector […] More

Dollar Paused in Troubling Times

April 22, 2015

In spite of disappointing U.S. growth for a second straight quarter, dollar demand sizzled in January-March.  Trading has been consolidating this month, and not merely pausing after such an upward spurt or even because of some convergence of macroeconomic trends between the United States and Europan.  These are disturbing times.  Each day, more bad news […] More

Opening Currency Market Act of 2012

January 5, 2012

The dollar started 2012 on a high note just as it did in the first week of three of the past five years.  Between yearend and January 7, the dollar appreciated against the euro by 3.6% in 2011, 2.5% in 2009 and 1.4% in 2007.  It was unchanged in the first week of 2010 and […] More

Slightly Softer Dollar on Final Trading Day of 2011

December 30, 2011

The dollar depreciated overnight by 0.3% against the yen and both Aussie and New Zealand dollars.  It also eased 0.1% against the Swiss franc and was fixed in China at CNY 6.3009, its softest fixing since the July 21, 2005 revaluation of the yuan.  However, the greenback edged 0.1% higher against the euro and appears […] More

Currency Volatility Presents Another Problem in a Difficult Policy Environment

October 14, 2011

The factors that bolstered the dollar strongly in September abruptly shut down this month.  For one thing, a new calendar quarter, and one that oftentimes has not been a good one for the dollar, has begun.  Two, a string of better-than-expected U.S. economic data has created more than reasonable doubt that a recession is at […] More

Risk Aversion Isn’t Over until It’s Over

October 7, 2011

Don’t be fooled by the latest respite from risk aversion.  Such will return and generally linger around for considerably longer.  More about that in a moment after some quick comments on specific currencies. The euro/dollar key relationship is currently trading very near the $1.3375 average level for the nearly eight years that Jean-Claude Trichet has […] More

The First Six Weeks of 2011 in Forex

February 13, 2011

Major dollar relationships have traded in generally narrow ranges for the most part so far this year.  A number of themes have emerged, which in the aggregate have not imparted any cumulating movement to currency markets.  Investors are watching The U.S. labor market.  While the growth of jobs has remained slow, the unemployment rate and […] More

Stocks Rebound After Chinese Data Release

October 13, 2010

Equities advanced 2.4% in India, 2.0% in Sri Lanka, 1.8% in Indonesia, 1.6% in Thailand, 1.7% in Singapore, 1.5% in Hong Kong, 1.4% in China and 0.7% in the Philippines and Malaysia.  Stocks are up 1.4% in Germany and France and by 1.2% in Britain.  Stocks lagged well behind in Japan (0.2%) and were unchanged […] More

New Wave of Risk Aversion

October 12, 2010

Typical of a more risk adverse market, the dollar is higher except against the yen and Swissy.  Stocks, commodity prices and sovereign bond yields are lower.  After a three-day weekend, the Nikkei dropped 2.1%.  The Paris Cac, British Ftse and German Dax currently show declines of 1.3%, 0.9%, and 0.6%.  Equities also fell by 1.7% […] More