Swiss Franc

Waiting for a Slew of U.S. Data

January 16, 2015

U.S. economic statistics will be released today on consumer prices, industrial production, consumer confidence, and capital flows with other economies.  We arrive at this juncture after five straight daily declines in U.S. share prices and one of the most volatile currency market days ever.  In forty years of forex market watching, I can not recall […] More

Currency Reflections on a Wintry Day

January 23, 2014

Optimism about U.S. growth prospects continues to mount, and many currency watchers have been awaiting just such a sign as the needed catalyst for a significant rise in the dollar against its main rival, the euro.  Canadian monetary officials just raised their projected 2014 U.S. growth rate by a half percentage point to 3.0%.  That […] More

In the Eye of the Storm

October 31, 2013

Could it be that this is the eye of a market storm?  To the rear lies the worst accident to GDP and employment growth since the 1930s, an event from which advanced economies never fully recovered.  Lately, emerging nations like India seem under the weather, but economic prospects for the most part appear constructive.  Assumptions […] More

Swiss National Bank: No Policy Changes

September 19, 2013

SNB officials concluded their quarterly monetary policy review with no change in the stance and a statement that Acknowledges lessening global financial market stress, Retains an interest rate policy of virtually zero within a 3-month libor target range of 0-0.25%. Pledges to do whatever it takes in the way of intervention and other steps to […] More

Lots of Puzzles to Ponder

June 6, 2013

The dollar at today’s lows of 95.90 yen and 1.3306 per euro had depreciated 7.6% against the yen since May 22 and 3.8% against the euro since May 17.  This slide was associated with the softest patch of equity market performance so far this year.  Investor expectations haven’t been very consistent.  One perception is that […] More

What’s Changed?

April 4, 2013

This important week in the global economy has changed some things in foreign exchange but left even more relationships in a purgatory between the bust of 2008-09 and the next definitive stage.  Market and real economic conditions might cave into a Stockmanesque chaos.  While there is wide agreement that much could yet go wrong, a […] More

Currencies Remain Mostly Calm Ahead of the U.S. Fiscal Waterfall

November 30, 2012

Net movement in the currencies of major advanced economies have been comparatively small during the second half of 2012.  The yen has exhibited the greatest weakness, a slide of 3.2% against the dollar, but virtually all that loss occurred within the past month.  The U.S. currency otherwise has depreciated 2.5% or less against the euro, […] More

Dollar Performs Best When Investors are Worried

October 5, 2012

Uncertainty promotes currency market stability.  The dollar’s major appeal over the last four years didn’t reflect comparatively resilient U.S. economic growth or other fundamental advantages associated perennially with U.S. asset markets.  Rather, the dollar performed best when elevated risk aversion caused the search for asset safety to become paramount.  The yen has also benefited from […] More

A Telling Week in Foreign Exchange

September 14, 2012

Market reactions to the ECB and Federal Reserve monetary initiatives this month have clarified why the euro fell earlier this year and exposed underlying vulnerability in the dollar.  Euro weakness reflected the perceived imminence of a breakup among common currency users and not very much else.  In turn, dollar sentiment appears more fragile than comparisons […] More

Endless Waiting for Uncertainty to Lift

August 17, 2012

Uncertainty continues to be one of the most frequently heard financial market buzzwords.  The term encompasses the reality that many pertinent pieces of influential information cannot be guesstimated accurately.  Investors end up sitting on the sidelines, waiting in vain for some clarification that never comes.  Consensus expectations aren’t necessarily frozen, but opinions are held with […] More