April 2026 in Figures
April 30, 2026
A second full month has now passed without an end to the Middle East war that had been projected initially as likely to last only a few weeks. In March with world energy prices soaring like it was 1974, 1979 or the late summer of 1990, financial markets experienced a significant drop in the appetite for risk. A ceasefire brokered by the United States one week into the month of April reduced military fighting substantially, but the conflict’s evolution has been far from reassuring in other respects. A virtually complete shut down of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to amplify the war’s projected adverse global economic fallout, and that risk seems to be mounting exponentially.
Today’s statement from the Governing Council of the European Central Bank expresses this very danger: “The longer the war continues and the longer energy prices remain high, the stronger is the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy.” Inflation data reported during the past month documented a very sharp run-up in the cost of energy. A pass-though of higher energy costs into other prices has not been pronounced, but measures of prices expectations for the short term confirm that such a dynamic is widely anticipated. Because of the supply shock crimping access to energy and activities dependent on energy, forecasts of 2026 economic growth have been scaled back for many countries. One of the biggest fears is that as each week passes without restoring normal usage of the Strait, the likely additional delay will be climbing in a greatly multiplied way before normal commerce to and from the Middle East can be restored.
Facing escalating upside risks to inflation and downside risks to economic activity, central banks are reluctant to change monetary stances, and many have instead adopted wait-and-see approaches to allow time to better gauge the progress of the conflict and the different channels through which it will affect real economic growth in 2026, 2027 and beyond. None of the countries featured in the table below changed their central bank interest rate, and the number of other central banks where a move was made in April was atypically few. Among that group, central banks in Pakistan and Colombia each lifted their rates by a full percentage point, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s monetary policy was tightened by increasing the slope of the corridor through which the Singapore dollar will be allowed to appreciate. Alternatively, central banks in Russia and Brazil had their key interest rates cut by 50 and 25 basis points, respectively.
In March, long-term interest rates had fallen as investors sought safer assets. In April, by contrast, ten-year sovereign debt yields rose in each of the five countries below, with the largest moves happening in Japan and Great Britain. A changed mood also enveloped equities, dramatically so in some economies. In Japan, for instance, after the Nikkei-225 set a record closing high of 38,916 on the final business day of 1989, it took over 34 years for that level to be exceeded on February 22, 2024. In just over two years, the Nikkei has jumped to as high as 60,904 this past week, and its net gain in April amounted to about 16%.
Lifted by safety-seeking capital flows, the dollar performed well in the early weeks of the war but turned downward this past month, losing at least 2% against most of the currencies in the table below. In April, too, crypto currencies performed better than precious metal prices.
| 10-Yr Yield | 3/31/26 | 4/30/26 | April Change |
| U.S. | 4.32% | 4.38% | -6 basis points |
| Germany | 3.00% | 3.03% | +3 |
| Japan | 2.34% | 2.51% | +17 |
| U.K. | 4.91% | 5.01% | +10 |
| Canada | 3.47% | 3.54% | +7 |
| Switzerland | 0.31% | 0.36% | +5 |
| CB Policy Rate | 3/31/26 | 4/30/26 | April Change |
| Fed funds target | 3.50/3.75% | 3.50/3.75% | 0 basis pts |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.00% | 2.00% | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | 0.75% | 0.75% | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0 |
| Swiss Policy Rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| FX | 3/31/26 | 4/30/26 | Change in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.1562 | 1.1732 | -1.4% |
| USD/JPY | 158.63 | 156.57 | -1.3% |
| USD/CHF | 0.7993 | 0.7812 | -2.3% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3239 | 1.3605 | -2.7% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6900 | 0.7199 | -2.7% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5746 | 0.5908 | -2.7% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3911 | 1.3583 | -2.4% |
| USD/CNY | 6.9900 | 6.8382 | -2.2% |
| Equities | 3/31/26 | 4/30/26 | April Change |
| S&P 500 | 6845 | 7209 | +5.3% |
| Nasdaq | 21591 | 24892 | +15.3% |
| Djia | 46342 | 49652 | +7.1% |
| Dax | 22680 | 24292 | +7.1% |
| Nikkei | 51064 | 59285 | +16.1% |
| Ftse | 10176 | 10379 | +2.0% |
| Canada TSE | 32736 | 33945 | +3.7% |
| Swiss SMI | 12777 | 13136 | +2.8% |
| Commodities | 3/31/26 | 4/30/26 | 1Q26 Change |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 100.1 | 105.3 | +5.2% |
| Gold, $ per ounce
Bitcoin, $ |
4679
68077 |
4632
76339 |
-1.0%
+12.1% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2026. All rights reserved.
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