FOMC Preview
April 29, 2026
The last FOMC meeting occurred only 2-1/2 weeks into the Middle Eastern war. Seven additional weeks have elapsed, and a war that was not expected to last more than five weeks, if that, is still unresolved. A ceasefire has quelled outright conflict but the economic pressure points of the war — the global price of oil and stoppage of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — persist. Projected inflation and economic activity in 2026 will be respectively higher and lower than presumed at the start of this year. Even then, the the perceived risks around the Fed’s twin mandates of long-term price stability of 2% and maximized employment were tugging U.S. monetary authorities in opposite directions. The unfinished war has made this polarization more pronounced, and the likely elimination of the conflict’s economic consequences is nowhere in sight. Another big difference is that this is probably the last FOMC meeting chaired by Jerome Powell. Investors still don’t know if he will remain on the FOMC as a Fed Governor.
The Fed has all but telegraphed that no change will be made at this meeting in the 3.5-3.75% federal funds rate target. Circumstances haven’t changed sufficiently to allow for clarity in the realm of forward guidance about future policy. Even if reporter questions manage to eke out some unexpected hints, a change in chairmanship makes any takeaways even more dubious than usual. Under Powell and his predecessors Yellen and Bernanke, the FOMC bent over backwards to make monetary policy as transparent as possible with a heavy emphasis on specific guidance about future policy. President Trump’s nominee for the next Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, believes that the pursuit of transparency went way too far, robbing officials of the true flexibility they need to run anconstrained meeting by meeting reaction function.
When the FOMC met in mid March, the price of oil had already catapulted sharply higher. It’s close to 7% higher now than then. Fed officials back then clung to the notion that 1-2 rate cuts in 2026 were still possible. That seems more doubtful now, but fresh forecast updates are not due until the next meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 13 basis points since the March meeting, yet the share prices are higher now than in Mid-March. The yen has been pinned near 160/$ most of this time, while the euro has risen around 1.6% against the dollar in this period.
| EUR/$ | $/JPY | 10Y, % | DJIA | Oil, $ | |
| 06/30/04 | 1.2173 | 109.44 | 4.63 | 10396 | 37.95 |
| 06/30/05 | 1.2090 | 110.89 | 3.96 | 10370 | 57.00 |
| 06/29/06 | 1.2527 | 116.07 | 5.20 | 11077 | 73.41 |
| 06/28/07 | 1.3452 | 123.17 | 5.10 | 13456 | 69.82 |
| 08/07/07 | 1.3749 | 118.55 | 4.73 | 13510 | 72.27 |
| 09/18/07 | 1.3888 | 115.75 | 4.51 | 13475 | 81.42 |
| 10/31/07 | 1.4458 | 115.28 | 4.42 | 13873 | 93.59 |
| 12/11/07 | 1.4682 | 111.49 | 4.11 | 13645 | 89.78 |
| 01/30/08 | 1.4792 | 107.31 | 3.70 | 12454 | 91.70 |
| 03/18/08 | 1.5786 | 98.73 | 3.41 | 12257 | 107.53 |
| 04/30/08 | 1.5562 | 104.58 | 3.83 | 12953 | 111.54 |
| 06/25/08 | 1.5568 | 108.37 | 4.18 | 11837 | 133.62 |
| 08/05/08 | 1.5445 | 108.42 | 3.97 | 11484 | 119.82 |
| 09/16/08 | 1.4144 | 105.16 | 3.36 | 10936 | 91.18 |
| 10/08/08 | 1.3625 | 99.87 | 3.50 | 9447 | 87.02 |
| 10/29/08 | 1.2933 | 97.15 | 3.81 | 9145 | 67.38 |
| 12/16/08 | 1.3790 | 90.14 | 2.52 | 8687 | 44.14 |
| 01/28/09 | 1.3253 | 90.01 | 2.61 | 8356 | 42.92 |
| 03/18/09 | 1.3115 | 98.13 | 2.94 | 7340 | 47.73 |
| 04/29/09 | 1.3331 | 97.06 | 3.02 | 8194 | 51.05 |
| 06/24/09 | 1.3984 | 95.43 | 3.59 | 8373 | 68.76 |
| 08/12/09 | 1.4221 | 96.17 | 3.71 | 9366 | 70.64 |
| 09/23/09 | 1.4779 | 91.50 | 3.50 | 9859 | 69.13 |
| 11/04/09 | 1.4884 | 90.75 | 3.51 | 9896 | 80.66 |
| 12/16/09 | 1.4542 | 89.78 | 3.56 | 10478 | 73.14 |
| 01/27/10 | 1.4045 | 89.49 | 3.61 | 10148 | 73.31 |
| 03/16/10 | 1.3756 | 90.64 | 3.67 | 10645 | 81.45 |
| 04/28/10 | 1.3157 | 94.10 | 3.75 | 11043 | 82.57 |
| 06/23/10 | 1.2284 | 90.12 | 3.13 | 10307 | 76.50 |
| 08/10/10 | 1.3107 | 85.85 | 2.81 | 10605 | 79.94 |
| 09/21/10 | 1.3132 | 85.21 | 2.66 | 10747 | 73.05 |
| 11/03/10 | 1.4059 | 81.35 | 2.53 | 11174 | 84.59 |
| 12/14/10 | 1.3423 | 83.37 | 3.38 | 11497 | 88.47 |
| 01/26/11 | 1.3658 | 82.55 | 3.41 | 12001 | 87.36 |
| 03/15/11 | 1.3969 | 81.04 | 3.29 | 11815 | 98.09 |
| 04/27/11 | 1.4665 | 82.63 | 3.36 | 12612 | 112.48 |
| 06/22/11 | 1.4392 | 80.12 | 2.97 | 12175 | 94.87 |
| 08/09/11 | 1.4234 | 77.09 | 2.36 | 10993 | 81.76 |
| 09/21/11 | 1.3778 | 76.34 | 1.93 | 11377 | 86.74 |
| 11/02/11 | 1.3724 | 78.11 | 2.03 | 11805 | 92.77 |
| 12/13/11 | 1.3067 | 77.92 | 1.98 | 12130 | 100.20 |
| 01/25/12 | 1.3027 | 77.96 | 1.97 | 12670 | 98.85 |
| 03/13/12 | 1.3096 | 82.76 | 2.08 | 13044 | 106.34 |
| 04/25/12 | 1.3226 | 81.37 | 1.97 | 13096 | 104.13 |
| 06/20/12 | 1.2693 | 79.28 | 1.66 | 12837 | 83.63 |
| 08/01/12 | 1.2300 | 78.10 | 1.49 | 13028 | 88.98 |
| 09/13/12 | 1.2895 | 77.43 | 1.72 | 13342 | 97.60 |
| 10/24/12 | 1.2948 | 79.75 | 1.77 | 13115 | 85.72 |
| 12/12/12 | 1.3082 | 83.24 | 1.70 | 13325 | 87.13 |
| 01/30/13 | 1.3584 | 91.16 | 2.02 | 13949 | 97.63 |
| 03/20/13 | 1.2948 | 95.65 | 1.94 | 14497 | 92.82 |
| 05/01/13 | 1.3195 | 97.48 | 1.62 | 14740 | 90.47 |
| 06/19/13 | 1.3364 | 95.76 | 2.23 | 15304 | 98.38 |
| 07/31/13 | 1.3301 | 97.92 | 2.67 | 15565 | 105.63 |
| 09/18/13 | 1.3363 | 98.28 | 2.76 | 15606 | 107.01 |
| 10/30/13 | 1.3764 | 98.18 | 2.48 | 15660 | 97.42 |
| 12/18/13 | 1.3696 | 103.81 | 2.89 | 16198 | 98.06 |
| 01/29/14 | 1.3651 | 102.13 | 2.73 | 15719 | 97.23 |
| 03/19/14 | 1.3918 | 101.75 | 2.71 | 16335 | 99.96 |
| 04/30/14 | 1.3868 | 102.11 | 2.66 | 16553 | 99.52 |
| 06/18/14 | 1.3584 | 101.93 | 2.61 | 16892 | 106.12 |
| 07/30/14 | 1.3372 | 102.84 | 2.51 | 16878 | 101.45 |
| 08/17/14 | 1.2961 | 107.60 | 2.57 | 17151 | 94.05 |
| 10/29/14 | 1.2677 | 108.40 | 2.33 | 16956 | 82.51 |
| 12/17/14 | 1.2409 | 117.58 | 2.11 | 17201 | 57.85 |
| 01/28/15 | 1.1337 | 117.77 | 1.78 | 17457 | 44.75 |
| 03/18/15 | 1.0637 | 120.98 | 2.05 | 17733 | 42.49 |
| 04/29/15 | 1.1164 | 118.67 | 2.05 | 18039 | 59.16 |
| 06/17/15 | 1.1255 | 124.22 | 2.39 | 17862 | 59.12 |
| 07/29/15 | 1.1073 | 123.61 | 2.29 | 17720 | 49.17 |
| 09/17/15
10/28/15 |
1.1334
1.1081 |
120.86
120.50 |
2.26
2.07 |
16778
17687 |
47.01
45.83 |
| 12/16/15
01/27/16 03/16/16 04/27/16 06/14/16 07/27/16 09/21/16 11/02/16 12/14/16 02/01/17 03/15/17 05/03/17 06/14/17 07/25/17 09/20/17 11/01/17 12/13/17 01/31/18 03/21/18 05/02/18 06/13/18 08/01/18 09/26/18 11/08/18 12/19/18 01/30/19 03/20/19 05/01/19 06/19/19 07/31/19 09/18/19 10/30/19 12/11/19 01/29/20 03/03/20 03/15/20 03/23/20 04/29/20 06/10/20 07/29/20 09/16/20 11/05/20 12/16/20 01/27/21 03/17/21 04/28/21 06/16/21 07/28/21 09/22/21 11/03/21 12/15/21 01/26/22 03/16/22 05/04/22 06/15/22 07/27/22 09/21/22 11/02/22 12/14/22 02/01/23 03/22/23 05/03/23 06/14/23 07/26/23 09/20/23 11/01/23 12/13/23 01/31/24 03/20/24 05/01/24 06/12/24 07/31/24 09/18/24 11/07/24 12/18/24 01/29/25 03/19/25 05/07/25 06/18/25 07/30/25 09/17/25 10/29/25 12/10/25 01/28/26 03/18/26 04/29/26 |
1.0956
1.0874 1.1089 1.1339 1.1205 1.0998 1.1160 1.1099 1.0641 1.0741 1.0638 1.0910 1.1149 1.1735 1.2010 1.1631 1.1815 1.2424 1.2271 1.1963 1.1788 1.1668 1.1765 1.1400 1.1420 1.1415 1.1355 1.1244 1.1217 1.1132 1.1066 1.1117 1.1112 1.1002 1.1179 1.1087 1.0697 1.0859 1.1367 1.1787 1.1824 1.1814 1.2174 1.2115 1.1908 1.2071 1.2126 1.1812 1.1722 1.1581 1.1255 1.1287 1.0983 1.0536 1.0438 1.0129 0.9884 0.9884 1.o686 1.0988 1.0792 1.1047 1.0860 1.1065 1.0672 1.0563 1.0875 1.0840 1.0855 1.0681 1.0830 1.0814 1.1126 1.0801 1.0487 1.0423 1.0864 1.1356 1.1515 1.1473 1.1864 1.1650 1.1658 1.1944 1.1517 1.1701
|
121.72
118.48 113.70 111.37 106.15 105.65 100.84 103.33 115.37 113.52 114.48 112.47 111.55 111.17 111.34 113.91 112.58 109.31 106.27 109.91 110.38 111.69 112.94 113.88 112.26 109.55 111.42 111.17 108.36 108.59 108.16 108.89 108.62 109.14 107.21 108.33 111.26 106.73 107.24 104.84 105.00 103.68 103.65 104.07 109.27 108.80 109.97 110.09 109.23 114.01 113.98 114.36 118.62 130.10 133.82 137.31 144.08 146.93 134.86 128.93 132.57 135.22 139.38 140.82 148.06 150.87 142.93 146.58 151.60 157.68 155.93 150.89 141.97 152.94 153.77 155.05 145.92 143.03 144.64 148.89 154.63 152.24 156.40 153.59 159.42 160.21 |
2.29
2.02 1.99 1.89 1.62 1.53 1.70 1.78 2.45 2.49 2.57 2.30 2.13 2.29 2.24 2.35 2.34 2.73 2.89 2.97 2.96 2.99 3.08 3.23 2.81 2.72 2.57 2.48 2.08 2.02 1.75 1.80 1.80 1.61 1.01 1.01 0.81 0.61 0.77 0.59 0.67 0.77 0.91 1.01 1.66 1.62 1.49 1.25 1.31 1.56 1.45 1.78 2.19 2.98 3.34 2.77 3.56 4.03 3.51 3.41 3.54 3.37 3.79 3.89 4.35 4.79 4.02 3.97 4.28 4.66 4.27 4.11 3.68 4.34 4.36 4.55 4.32 4.26 4.35 4.35 4.04 4.01 4.16 4.25 4.26 4.39 |
17583
16002 17217 18013 17675 18461 18151 17989 19915 19890 20885 20920 21375 21711 22376 23405 24585 26259 24839 24095 25309 25310 26543 26195 23881 24841 25727 26624 26452 27210 27048 27067 27877 28833 25917 23185 18592 24667 27169 26467 28196 28418 30,125 30,554 32,868 33,908 34,251 34,938 34,279 35,894 35,493 34,594 33,726 33,242 30,806 31,846 30,850 32,524 34,175 34,093 32,466 33,689 34,108 35,418 34,553 33,226 37,090 38,380 39,144 37,888 38,772 40,995 41,634 43,703 43,606 44,789 41,660 41,665 42,454 44,474 45,463 47,838 47,742 49,005 46,225 48,843 |
35.95
30.85 37.79 44.89 48.29 41.91 43.44 45.18 51.83 53.33 48.43 47.96 44.71 48.75 50.55 54.24 56.60 64.41 65.00 67.57 66.77 67.62 71.68 60.93 47.80 54.51 59.48 63.38 53.65 58.48 58.16 54.60 58.68 53.52 47.18 31.73 23.36 15.30 39.05 41.22 40.00 38.84 47.77 52.81 64.30 63.70 72.32 74.25 71.94 81.14 70.39 87.40 95.70 107.71 116.24 97.36 83.70 88.57 77.56 76.80 70.32 68.70 69.38 78.93 90.28 82.86 69.77 75.92 81.70 80.52 78.79 77.74 70.65 72.76 71.00 72.75 67.38 58.24 73.82 70.40 64.50 60.56 58.22 62.82 98.98 105.63 |
Copyright 2026, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: FOMC preview
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