September and Third Quarter in Figures
September 30, 2026
The most dramatic financial market change during the third quarter was not in the price of oil but rather a 42% advance in the price of Bitcoin, nearly a fifth of which occurred in September. Nonetheless, a 30% jump in the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, along with a manic debate over the pros and cons of deregulating artificial intelligence had enormous influence over the wide spectrum of other financial markets.
Another major theme in the third quarter revolved around U.S. monetary policy. Despite a 25-basis point increase in the federal funds target at the FOMC’s September meeting, it became clear by the end of the month that markets were leading rather than following the Federal Reserve. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 53 basis points in September and 83 bps in the quarter, while the 30-year yield advanced to its highest level since mid-20o2. Other major economies also suffered significant upward movement in long-term interest rates.
Among central banks in the table below, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan policy interest rates were also lifted by 25 basis points in September, while the British and Swiss key rates were kept steady at their respective policy reviews. Some of the other central bank interest rate changes involved increases of 100 basis points in Angola, 50 bps in Ukraine and Jamaica, and 25 bps in Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, Colombia, Norway, and Armenia but also cuts of 350 bps in Nigeria, 200 bps in Zimbabwe, 50 bps in Kazakhstan and 25 bps in Israel and Brazil.
Most of the stock markets in the table below lost ground in September, but the U.S. Nasdaq and S&P 500 still managed to close above their midyear levels. The dollar benefited in September from safety-seeking capital flows, but net changes in the third quarter were less noteworthy. The price of gold lost ground in both September and the quarter.
| 10-Yr Yield | 9/30/26 | Chg in Sept | 3Q26 Change |
| U.S. | 5.28% | +53 basis point | +83 basis points |
| Germany | 3.58% | +28 | +72 |
| Japan | 3.03% | +12 | +37 |
| U.K. | 5.42% | +36 | +66 |
| Canada | 3.99% | +25 | +62 |
| Switzerland | 0.54% | +14 | +29 |
| CB Policy Rate | 9/30/26 | Chg in Sept | 3Q26 Change |
| Fed funds target | 3.75/4.00% | +25 basis points | +25 basis points |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.50% | +25 | +25 |
| BOJ policy rate | +1.25% | +25 | +25 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 3.75% | 0 | 0 |
| Swiss Policy Rate | 0.0% | 0 | 0 |
| FX | 9/30/26 | Sept Chg in $ | 3Q26 Change |
| EUR/USD | 1.1419 | +1.5% | +0.8% |
| USD/JPY | 157.39 | -1.7% | -3.2% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8361 | +3.4% | +3.4% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3261 | +2.7% | -0.3% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6944 | +2.2% | +0.3% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5633 | +4.6% | +0.8% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4236 | +2.5% | +0.3% |
| USD/CNY | 6.7043 | +0.3% | -1.4% |
| Equities | 9/30/26 | Chg in Sept | 3Q26 Change |
| S&P 500 | 7686 | -0.6% | +2.4% |
| Nasdaq | 26899 | +2.0% | +2.6% |
| Djia | 50988 | -4.2% | -2.5% |
| Dax | 25199 | -4.4% | +0.8% |
| Nikkei | 66754 | +0.6% | -4.7% |
| Ftse | 10606 | -2.0% | +1.0% |
| Canada TSE | 35343 | -2.6% | +1.5% |
| Swiss SMI | 13830 | -3.2% | -2.6% |
| Commodities | 9/30/26 | Chg in Sept | 2Q26 Change |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 90.52 | +0.4% | +30.2% |
| Gold, $ per ounce
Bitcoin, $ |
4,183
83,516 |
-4.2%
+8.1% |
+3.6%
+42.0% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2026. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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