National Bank of Poland
Better Market Tone Than Earlier This Week
April 4, 2024
There’s an old adage not to bet against the central bank. Market participants earlier this week had been unnerved by fears that disinflation is stalling amid improving aggregate demand. Yesterday’s speech at Stanford University by Fed Chairman Powell depicted essentially unchanged forward policy guidance. The precise path of the federal funds target may be currently […] More
A Pause in the Action
February 8, 2024
While equities in China (+1.3%), Japan (+2.1%), France (+0.6% so far), Italy (+0.6%), Spain (+0.5%) and Germany (+0.4%) followed yesterday’s upbeat U.S. example, U.S. futures have paused on technical considerations. China’s gain equated to a loss for Hong Kong today of 1.3% and India of 1.0%. Pakistan’s election today has been marred by outbreaks of […] More
Reevaluating Scope for Lessening Monetary Restraint
January 9, 2024
Ten-year sovereign debt yields climbed five basis points overnight in Germany, France and Spain and by four bps in the United Kingdom. The 10-year Treasury yield is unchanged from Monday’s 4.03% closing level but 24 basis points higher than its close on December 27th. Inflation around the world has fallen significantly below peak, but doubts […] More
Poland’s Second Central Bank Interest Rate Cut of the Easing Cycle
October 4, 2023
In the face of above-target inflation, the National Bank of Poland’s reference interest rate had between October 2021 and September 2022 been raised progressively from 0.10% to 6.75%. Meanwhile, Polish CPI inflation had this year crested at 18.4% in February and fallen to 10.1% by August. That set the stage for a 75-basis point initial […] More
First Central Bank Rate Cut in Poland Since 2020
September 6, 2023
The dollar today has strengthened 1.9% against the Polish zloty and shows a two-day 3.0% advance versus that currency, which was hurt by a greater-than-anticipated 75-basis point decrease in the National Bank of Poland‘s reference interest rate to 6.0%. During 2022, the central bank’s interest rate had been increased seven times and by a total […] More
Central Bank Decisions, a U.S. PMI Surprise, and a Further Advance in the Price of Oil
September 6, 2023
The U.S. Institute of Supply Management delivered a surprisingly buoyant U.S. non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey for the month of August, showing an overall 6-month high reading of 54.5 versus 52.7 in July and including a 2.1-point increase in the inflation subindex to 58.9. This news eclipsed the other S&P Global U.S. PMI news of 6- […] More
U.S. April CPI Figures Not Worse Than Expected, and That Just May Be Sufficient for Fed Policy to Pause
May 10, 2023
The dollar fell overnight by 0.6% against the yen, 0.3% relative to the euro, 0.2% vis-a-vis the Australian and New Zealand currencies, and 0.1% versus the British pound. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are down today by six basis points in the United States, five bps in France and Italy, four bps in Germany and the […] More
Service Sector Purchasing Manager Surveys and Some Central Banking Developments
April 5, 2023
The dollar overnight traded 0.6% higher against the Australian dollar, 0.5% lower versus the Japanese yen, and held steady on balance against the euro and Canadian dollar. Equities closed down 1.7% and 0.7% in Japan and Hong Kong and up 0.8% and 0.6% in India and South Korea. In Europe, the German Dax is down […] More
Polish Central Bank Rate Hike
September 7, 2022
Officials at the National Bank of Poland engineered their eleventh interest rate hike since August 2021, lifting such from 0.25% to 6.75% after today’s 25-basis point increment. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been particularly disruptive and unsettling to this neighboring economy. CPI inflation, which has been aggravated by zloty depreciation, has tripled from 5.5% […] More
A Busy Wednesday as Central Banks Compete with Data for Market Attention
September 7, 2022
Dollar strength continues, with another 20-year high touched overnight by the weighted DXY index. At 144.98, the dollar climbed 1.4% overnight and to its highest Japanese yen value since August 1998 when the Asian debt crisis was raging. The greenback also has advanced 0.8% versus sterling and 0.3% vis-a-vis the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand […] More
