U.S. and Canadian trade balances
A Reminder that Iran Risk Still Lurks, but Market Reaction Lacks Panic
July 7, 2026
Just six weeks remain in the 60-day negotiating window laid out in the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran. The past weekend had lacked the customary military craziness, but a big ship carrying energy took on fire in a reminder that investors mustn’t make assumptions that this political distraction will end with […] More
Trump Speech Sends Shock Waves Through World Financial Markets
April 2, 2026
The highly anticipated update from President Trump in prime time last evening failed to clarify the big questions of when the Middle East war might end, when or exactly how shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz might resume, what Iranian government would be in place after military fighting ends, and what kind of U.S. […] More
Monday’s Equity Rebound Extended Into Asia and Europe but Has Stalled in the United States
August 5, 2025
Concepts like democracy, rule of law and autocracy get thrown around so much these days that there is a risk that the comparison loses significance. When assessing a developed economy’s future potential, past experience strongly suggests that democracy is the preferable political framework for creating a conducive environment for achieving price stability, faster sustainable economic […] More
Tariff Fears Back in Ascendance
May 6, 2025
If enduring dollar hegemony could be assumed, big shocks like a global tariff war would correlate with an appreciating trend driven by safety-seeking capital flows. However, America’s tariff-centric trade policy represents a revolution away from the whole dynamic of the post-WW2 international monetary system. Contrary to the previous conventional wisdom, the more investors worry about […] More
What Have You Got to Lose?
April 3, 2025
As a politician, U.S. President Trump has shown an uncanny aptitude for selecting short, catchy slogans that proved to be a huge success at the ballot box. The best known of these is Make America Great Again, whose acronym MAGA took on the name of his political movement. Another best seller to his fans was […] More
Continuing Firestorm of Trump Statements Overwhelms an Otherwise Busy Day of Data Releases and Central Bank Decisions
February 5, 2025
The dollar fell overnight by 0.2% against the euro, Swissy, sterling and Canadian dollar but jumped 1.2% versus China’s yuan and 0.8% relative to the Mexican peso. In other financial market action, Nasdaq futures took a notable hit. Share prices in the Pacific Rim closed up 1.6% in Taiwan, 1.1% in South Korea and 0.5% […] More
Bottom Fishing
August 6, 2024
After Monday’s historically sharp movements across many financial market types, investors overnight and early today took a chance on those movements being overdone but remained cognizant of the risk for aftershocks. The backdrop to Monday’s selloff remains pretty much intact, and today’s additional news hasn’t been particularly remarkable. One continuing concern is the potential for […] More
More Japanese Intervention Suspected and General Relief that Powell Didn’t Put a Rate Hike More Explicitly in Play
May 2, 2024
Dollar/Yen fluctuated in a wide 1.3% trading range overnight. Japan’s Ministry of Finance is suspected of selling more foreign currency to support their currency. Intervention the other day is thought to have exceeded $20 billion. Published minutes today taken from the March Bank of Japan mid-March Board meeting express concern about the yen and voice […] More
Better Market Tone Than Earlier This Week
April 4, 2024
There’s an old adage not to bet against the central bank. Market participants earlier this week had been unnerved by fears that disinflation is stalling amid improving aggregate demand. Yesterday’s speech at Stanford University by Fed Chairman Powell depicted essentially unchanged forward policy guidance. The precise path of the federal funds target may be currently […] More
Softer Dollar and Sovereign Debt Prices as Central Banks Not Rushing to Ease but Equities Showing Some Resilience
February 7, 2024
The dollar slid overnight by 0.3% against sterling and 0.2% relative to the euro, Canadian dollar and as measured by the DXY weighted index. A further rise in sovereign debt yields today — 4 basis points in British 10-year gilts, 3 basis points in 10-year U.S. Treasuries, and 2 basis points in German, French, Italian […] More
