Uncategorized
Tech Stock Rally, Better German Economic News, and a Surprise Indonesian Central Bank Rate Hike
April 24, 2024
A recent concern had been that delayed Fed easing would particularly hurt coming earnings in the tech sector, but first quarter earnings have exceeded expectations. Tesla’s share price leaped over 10% in after-hours trading yesterday, and the Nasdaq futures shows a 0.7% overnight advance at this moment. Asian equities closed up 2.4% in Japan, 2.0% […] More
A Fair Amount of Data Out But Most Markets Not Trading Because of Good Friday
March 29, 2024
The dollar has dipped so far today by 0.3% against the Mexican peso, 0.2% versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars, and 0.1% relative to the euro, yen and sterling. The Swiss franc and Canadian dollar are unchanged. Gold at $2,238 per ounce is close to all-time highs. Share prices closed up 1.0% in China on […] More
A Sixth Straight Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Cut in Hungary
March 26, 2024
The Central Bank of Hungary’s base rate has been lowered at six straight monthly policy reviews, dropping by 225 basis points in the final quarter of 2023 and but 250 bps this quarter. The peak rate of 13.0% was maintained from September 2022 to October 2023. CPI inflation in Hungary peaked at 25.7% in January […] More
A Mixed Bag of Central Bank Moves, Purchasing Manager Surveys, and Current accounts
March 21, 2024
Since Federal Reserve President Powell said the Fed’s view on inflation had not materially changed, several other central banks have chimed in with their decisions. Interest rates were cut in Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Brazil, raised in Turkey and Taiwan, and left steady in Norway and the Bank of England. Preliminary March composite PMI […] More
Yen Slides 0.9% in Spite of First Bank of Japan Interest Rate Hike Since February 2007
March 19, 2024
The Bank of Japan‘s ended “yield curve control”, a negative short-term interest rate target, and asset purchases other than government bonds and restored the primacy of its overnight rate — now 0-0.1% — as its primary policy tool. These changes were justified by the greater-than-expected 5% wage increases that came out of this year’s spring […] More
Still Pausing
February 27, 2024
The dollar slipped back overnight by an additional 0.3% against the yen, 0.2% versus the Canadian and Australian dollars and 0.1% relative to the euro, Swiss franc and sterling. Ten-year sovereign debt yields fell three basis points in the U.K. and a single basis point each in Germany and the United States. Alternatively, the Spanish […] More
Next Week’s Menu: February 3-9, 2024
February 2, 2024
Central Banks: Reviews of monetary policies are scheduled next week in Australia, Thailand, Mexico, India, Poland, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Serbia and Moldovia. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement will be published. St. Louis Fed District President Bullard, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, and Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann […] More
Intensifying Equity Correction and Much Fresh Data to Absorb
January 17, 2024
The optimistic investor mood of late 2023 has evaporated. Hawkish central banker-speak has quelled hopes for an early start to the unwinding of tight monetary policy stances, and markets are also concerned about China’s economic performance, Former President Trump’s reelection prospects, and the risks of a full-blown multi-front war in the Middle East and rising […] More
Next Week’s Menu: January 13 – 19, 2024
January 12, 2024
Central Banks: Monetary policy stances will be reviewed in Indonesia and Kazakhstan. The Fed Beige Book of U.S. regional economic trends and minutes from the last European Central Bank governing council meeting are to be published. U.S. Holiday and Special Events: Americans will observe Martin Luther King’s Birthday on Monday. Voters in Taiwan choose a […] More
Financial Markets Remain Unsettled in Wake of Powell and Biden Speeches
October 20, 2023
Despite conceding that officials are carefully monitoring the recent sharp increase in bond yields, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s message remained hawkish overall. Inflation is still too high, a restrictive stance will be needed for quite a while longer, and further rate hikes may be required. The U.S. economy has shown resilience in the face of […] More
