Japanese retail sales and industrial production
WTI Oil Back Above $85, Signs of Higher Inflation, and Japanese Intervention But No Rate Hike
July 31, 2026
What started as a war between the U.S. and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other has broadened into a regional conflict that threatens to engulf Europe with a triple shipping choke-hold at the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Suez Canal. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed […] More
Dollar and 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Up but Not U.S. Equities in Wake of Warsh Nomination for Next Fed Chairmanship
January 30, 2026
Since markets closed in the U.S. yesterday, the dollar has strengthened by 0.9% against the Japanese yen. 0.5% relative to the euro and sterling, 0.4% versus the Swiss franc and 0.3% against the Canadian dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield is two basis points firmer, and West Texas Intermediate oil has extended Thursday’s rise by another […] More
A Disturbing U.S. Data Reality Check
April 30, 2025
The last business day of April typically delivered a ton of data releases, but what stood out most was how abruptly U.S. economic activity slowed last quarter. In the wake of the Covid shock of 2020, U.S. GDP had expanded 6.1% in 2021, 2.5% in 2022, 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% last year including 2.7% […] More
Seeking Safety Over Risk on Final Day of the Quarter
March 31, 2025
(198) The main theme in financial markets today has been a flight to safety, with stock markets tumbling 4.2% in Taiwan, 4.1% in Japan, 1.5% in Thailand and Vietnam, and 1.3% in Hong Kong. Major euro area stock markets so far show drops of 1.5-2.0%.The British FTSE is 1.4% weaker, and Nasdaq futures are down […] More
Firmer Long-Term Interest Rates as End-2024 Approaches
December 27, 2024
With markets reopening in Europe, ten-year sovereign debt yields have risen eight basis points in each of the four largest economies in the euro zone and by seven bps in Great Britain. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likewise eight basis points above its week-earlier level and three bps firmer than yesterday. The 10-year Japanese […] More
Plenty of Anxiety to Go Around
October 31, 2024
Pick your poison: the two-fisted global punch of Covid followed by a spike in inflation, endless wars in the Middle East, climate change accelerating faster than predicted, confusion about where artificial intelligence is taking mankind, and America seemingly on the brink of crossing over to the dark side. There’s plenty of anxiety to go around, […] More
Quarter-End and Supercharged 8.1% Leap in Chinese Equity Market Sucks the Energy Out of Other Stock Markets
September 30, 2024
Just prior to China‘s week-long national holiday, more measures were announced to support that economy’s depressed housing market and help secure this year’s overall goal of 5% GDP growth. The release of September purchasing manager surveys suggest that the stimulus is badly needed. The government-compiled NBS non-manufacturing PMI printed at a 21-month low of 50.0, […] More
A Lot of Data Out Today for Investors to Digest
August 30, 2024
There’s been a typical end-of-month deluge of economic data releases but without significant financial market repercussions. The dollar rose 0.2% overnight against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc but shows no net change against the euro, sterling or Aussie and New Zealand dollars. Following Thursday’s record high close in the DOW, pre-market trading today has […] More
Much Data Out But Main Attention Turning to Fed as FOMC Begins Policy Review
April 30, 2024
The Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day review of U.S. monetary policy today. No policy changes are anticipated, but Chairman Powell’s press conference is bound to reaffirm the increasingly hawkish message conveyed in various rhetorical remarks by Fed officials since the March meeting. The dollar is closing out the month of April on an […] More
A Fair Amount of Data Out But Most Markets Not Trading Because of Good Friday
March 29, 2024
The dollar has dipped so far today by 0.3% against the Mexican peso, 0.2% versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars, and 0.1% relative to the euro, yen and sterling. The Swiss franc and Canadian dollar are unchanged. Gold at $2,238 per ounce is close to all-time highs. Share prices closed up 1.0% in China on […] More
