Euroland GDP and employment
Middle East War Not Going As Well As Anticipated But the Dollar’s Doing Fine
March 6, 2026
The military conflict against Iran was supposed to be different from others like those involving Venezuela, Ukraine, Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, or to go back 60 years Vietnam. Most importantly, no ground troops would be needed, so U.S. casualties would be way down, and the risks were limited of it becoming endless, causing domestic economic pain, […] More
Dollar and 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Up but Not U.S. Equities in Wake of Warsh Nomination for Next Fed Chairmanship
January 30, 2026
Since markets closed in the U.S. yesterday, the dollar has strengthened by 0.9% against the Japanese yen. 0.5% relative to the euro and sterling, 0.4% versus the Swiss franc and 0.3% against the Canadian dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield is two basis points firmer, and West Texas Intermediate oil has extended Thursday’s rise by another […] More
Widely Shared Big Losses
November 14, 2025
Yesterday’s stock market sell-off has extended into Friday. One catalyst was the Trump administration’s suggestion that some key data points not collected during the federal shutdown may never be known. This surprise dropped on an investment community already showing rising concern that equity values, especially among in the tech sector, were unsustainably inflated. News that […] More
Euroland GDP, U.S. Labor Stats, and Lots More Data to Absorb This Friday
September 5, 2025
The first U.S. jobs report since the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics got replaced after weak July numbers arrives in less than an hour. Jobs in July grew a lower-than-forecast 73 thousand, which is about what analysts are anticipating for August, but the startling surprise a month ago was a combined 258k reduction […] More
Suspense Surrounding Several Issues
August 14, 2025
A number of key questions remain unanswered. What will be the result of tomorrow’s Putin-Trump talks in Alaska regarding the war in Ukraine? Will higher tariffs lead to a one-time price adjustment or an ongoing acceleration of inflation driven by so-called second-order effects? How much will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in the second […] More
