German CPI

U.S. April CPI Figures Not Worse Than Expected, and That Just May Be Sufficient for Fed Policy to Pause

May 10, 2023

The dollar fell overnight by 0.6% against the yen, 0.3% relative to the euro, 0.2% vis-a-vis the Australian and New Zealand currencies, and 0.1% versus the British pound. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are down today by six basis points in the United States, five bps in France and Italy, four bps in Germany and the […] More

Softer Dollar, Lower Bond Yields, and Equities Recover Further

March 30, 2023

Risk-on trading continued overnight. The dollar fell 0.4% against the Swiss franc, 0.3% relative to the euro and yen, 0.2% versus the Australian dollar and sterling and 0.1% vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar, kiwi, and Mexican peso. Ten-year sovereign debt yields dipped 3 basis points in the U.K., 2 bps in Germany and a basis point […] More

Escalating Fear of a U.S. and Global Inflation

March 10, 2023

The subordination of U.S. monetary policy to an automatic formula tied to money growth in the early 1980’s was a politically effective way to put the economy in a deep recession and finally set inflation on a downward course. Nothing that drastic has been done yet, but investors are increasingly convinced that price stability can […] More

Dollar Begins March with a Decline, and Asian Equities Buoyed by Stronger-than-Expected Chinese Growth

March 1, 2023

The dollar fell back overnight by 1.0% against the euro and Chinese yuan, 1.5% versus the kiwi, 0.8% relative to the Australian dollar, 0.7% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc, 0.5% against the Japanese yen, 0.4% relative to the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, and 0.3% versus sterling. The relaxation of Covid restrictions gave China’s economy a […] More

Dollar Down in Pre-Open Trading

February 9, 2023

The dollar fell broadly overnight, dropping 0.9% against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, 0.7% versus sterling, 0.5% relative to the euro and in weighted terms, 0.4% vis-a-vis the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar and 0.2% against the Chinese yuan. Equity markets have strengthened amid favorable earnings reports and soothing remarks from President Biden touting […] More

Chinese Data Greeted With Muted Market Reaction

January 17, 2023

A large menu of Chinese data releases proved not as weak as expected, but can the figures claimed by Beijing officials be believed as accurate? The muted reaction of investors suggests not. Chinese real GDP stagnated last quarter. Analysts were looking for a quarterly contraction of about 1% and consequently weren’t expecting year-on-year growth of […] More

2023 Opens on a Cautiously Hopeful Market Note

January 3, 2023

Share prices closed up 1.8% in Hong Kong, 0.9% in China, and 0.6% in Taiwan and Indonesia. Japan stayed closed for holiday. Stock markets have traded up at least 1.0% so far in today in Germany, France, Italy and the U.K., and U.S. equity futures show an upturn of about 0.9%. The mood change accompanying […] More

Financial Markets Exhibit Astounding Sensitivity to a Single Inflation Data Point

December 13, 2022

When the wires flashed news that U.S. CPI inflation in November was lower than forecast, share prices soared while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar plunged. The instant reaction of the stock market was significantly reduced in pretty short time, but the sensitivity of financial markets underscored how uncertain traders feel about current […] More

Post-CPI Equity Rally Gets Fresh Thrust from Chinese Covid Changes; DXY Has Dropped 5.4% Since Nov 3rd

November 11, 2022

On this Veteran’s Day holiday, U.S. banks will be closed, but the stock market is trading. U.S. equities had their biggest daily advance in over two years after Thursday’s CPI report, and stock futures this morning show a further 0.5% advance. Chinese officials, after initially denying rumors that a relaxation of the Zero Covid policy […] More

Waiting for U.S. CPI Data on Otherwise Light Load of Released Indicators

October 13, 2022

Equities fell sharply in Asia but are modestly higher in Europe and U.S. futures trading. Analysts expect today’s monthly release of U.S. consumer price figures to show a dip in overall inflation but higher underlying price pressure during September. The dollar overnight lost 0.4% against sterling and 0.3% versus the euro and measured by the […] More