FOMC Minutes
Awaiting Powell’s Speech
October 9, 2025
There’s been little reaction to news that Hamas and Israel reached a deal that is supposed to allow an exchange of hostages and prisoners and pave the way to a ceasefire in Gaza by the weekend. Financial market attention is instead focused on Fed policy. In the wake of yesterday’s published FOMC minutes that showed […] More
A Stew of FOMC Minutes, Preliminary Purchasing Manager Survey Results, and Producer Price and Consumer Confidence Reports
August 21, 2025
In spite of on-going concern about tariffs and geopolitical strains, the preliminary readings of August purchasing manager surveys highlighted unexpected economic resilience around the world: The S&P Global-compiled U.S. composite PMI index jumped to an 8-month high of 55.4 due to a 39-month high manufacturing score of 53.3 that outweighed a 2-month low service sector […] More
More Tariff Letters, Extended Uncertainty, and the Beat of Released Data and Central Bank Watching Goes On
July 9, 2025
Many governments received formal letters from President Trump yesterday, and others will get their “greetings” today. One is struck by the similarity of tariff threats assigned to each country to what had been promised nearly 100 days ago. One is also struck by the continuing drip of fresh elements, like a 50% tariff on copper […] More
Higher Long-Term Interest Rates But Scant Changes So Far Today in Dollar or Equities
May 28, 2025
The 10-year Japanese JGB yield climbed five basis points this Wednesday back to 1.50% despite a warning from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda that volatile long-term rates carry risk. Other 10-year sovereign debt yields have risen by 3 basis points in the U.K., 2 bps in the United States, and a basis point in Germany, […] More
Dollar and Equities Back Off from Wednesday Highs
February 20, 2025
The U.S. dollar fell overnight by 0.9% against the Japanese yen and by 0.4% versus the Mexican peso and both New Zealand and Australian currencies. Smaller losses occurred of 0.2% occurred against the Swiss franc, sterling, South Korean won, Turkish lira and DXY weighted index and of 0.1% relative to the euro and Canadian dollar. […] More
Upcoming U.S. CPI Sharing Spotlight with Fed & ECB Meeting Minutes
October 10, 2024
U.S. consumer price data are due in less than three hours. Analysts project a slight further dip in inflation but worry about the risk of an upside surprise. FOMC minutes released yesterday afternoon revealed more members comfortable with a 25-basis point interest rate cut last month than realized when the majority opted instead for a […] More
Hawkish Language in the April 30-May 01 FOMC Minutes
May 22, 2024
While conceding that risks to the Fed’s twin mandates of 2% sustained inflation and maximum employment within the constraint of price stability, the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which were released this afternoon, also stresses very high uncertainty surrounding their baseline forecast. There is some attempt to explain why inflation may […] More
Further Big Rise in Bond Yields
January 4, 2024
Ten-year sovereign debt yields overnight rose by a further 13 basis points in Greece, 12 bps in Italy, 10 bps in Spain, 9 bps in France and Germany, 8 bps in the U.K. and seven basis points in the United States. Amid this backing up of long-term interest rates, equities remained on their back foot, […] More
Dollar Slightly Lower in Pre-Thanksgiving Trading
November 21, 2023
The dollar fell overnight by 0.7% against the yuan, 0.5% versus the yen but just 0.2% relative to sterling and 0.1% against the euro and Swiss franc. Investors await the release at 20:00 GMT today (15:00 EST) of FOMC minutes. Ordinarily a Wednesday event, such are being released a day early due to the upcoming […] More
Additional Significant Retreat in Long-Term Interest Rates
October 11, 2023
Amid war in the Mideast and hopes that the federal funds target may not have to climb further, ten-year sovereign debt yields fell overnight by nine basis points in the United States and Great Britain, seven bps in France and Spain, six bps in Germany and Italy and two basis points in Japan. The 30-year […] More
