Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Colombia Undertakes Surprise Full Percentage Point Interest Rate Hike in Vote that Split Policymakers
January 31, 2026
Colombia’s benchmark interest rate had been cut by total of 400 basis points from a peak of 13.25% and starting with a 25-basis point reduction in December 2023. The most recent cut, also of 25 bps, had been done nine months ago. No rate change had been anticipated at the first policy review of 2026, […] More
Deeper Analysis
January 2026 in Figures
January 31, 2026
The most spectacular financial market changes last month involved precious metals, whose prices posted impressive net gains despite enormous sell-offs on the final trading day of the month. At record peaks of $121.79 per ounce for silver and $5,626.8 for gold, those metal had accrued gains of 72% and almost 30%, but closed with net […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: January 31 – February 6, 2026
January 30, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled at the European central bank and in Australia, the U.K., India, Iceland, Mexico, Poland, and the Czech Republic. A slew of public speaking engagements by various central bankers, several like Bailey of the Bank of England, Bullock of the Reserve Bank of Australia and Lagarde of the ECB […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar and 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Up but Not U.S. Equities in Wake of Warsh Nomination for Next Fed Chairmanship
January 30, 2026
Since markets closed in the U.S. yesterday, the dollar has strengthened by 0.9% against the Japanese yen. 0.5% relative to the euro and sterling, 0.4% versus the Swiss franc and 0.3% against the Canadian dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield is two basis points firmer, and West Texas Intermediate oil has extended Thursday’s rise by another […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Modestly Lower
January 29, 2026
Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference yesterday elicited a subdued reaction in financial markets. Typical of the end of each month, there is an extensive menu of data getting released around the world today and tomorrow. Relative to Wednesday closing levels, the dollar has slid 0.2% or less against a variety of currencies including the euro, […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Statement and Powell’s Press Conference Afterward
January 28, 2026
Changes made to the text of today’s statement and voting results at the meeting support today’s decision to pause interest rate cutting after 25-basis point reductions at each of last year’s final three meetings. Stephen Miran, Trump’s temporary appointment to fulfill the governorship vacancy after Adriana Kugler had resigned, cut his dissenting vote to a […] More
Central Bank Watch
No Change in 2.25% Overnight Bank of Canada Interest Rate
January 28, 2026
The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its interest rate level at 2.25% was as expected, and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report made scant changes to the 2026 and 2027 growth and inflation forecasts. From a peak of 5.0% from July 2023 to an initial rate cut in June of 2024, the policy interest rate […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
January 28, 2026
The eight scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings scheduled each year have become instances of very high theater. The progressive ramping up of pressure on the committee from the Trump administration hit new heights during the seven weeks since the group last met, forcing Chairman Powell is issue an unprecedented statement on January 11th defending […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Respite for the Dollar Ahead of FOMC Announcement
January 28, 2026
Financial market watchers and participants are overwhelmingly convinced that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave its federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%. The announcement arrives at 14:00 EST and will be followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference beginning 30 minutes later. Fed forecasts do not get updated this time. After this FOMC meeting, there will […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
EU and India Finalize Grand Remedy Against the Trade Restraints of the United States & China
January 27, 2026
Perhaps motivated by a desire to deflect attention away from the mess that ICE has made in Minneapolis, President Trump wielded the tariff weapon once again, threatening South Korea with a 10 percentage point jump to 25% in the U.S. tariff imposed on that economy’s exports to the United States. That gambit, however, was overwhelmed […] More
