National Bank of Ukraine

Ukraine’s Third Interest Rate Hike of 2021

July 22, 2021

The National Bank of Ukraine delivered a surprise, lifting its policy interest rate by another 50 basis points. There had been earlier increases this year of 50 basis points in March and 100 basis points in April. In contrast, four big reductions in 2020 had reduced the rate from 12.5% to 6.0%. Core inflation has […] More

Some Central Bank Developments and a Displeasing U.S. Labor Market Development

July 22, 2021

New U.S. jobless insurance claims last week totaled 419K, 51k greater than in the prior week, roughly 70k above street expectations, and the most in nine weeks. The news dampened the stock market euphoria of recent sessions. The dollar is little changed from its closing Wednesday levels, with dips of 0.1% against the euro, yen […] More

Parade of Other Central Banks

June 17, 2021

Markets had reacted late Wednesday to the Federal Reserve‘s signal that its initial interest rate hike is likely to occur during 2023, rather than 2024 as implied previously. Several other central banks had scheduled policy reviews whose results were learned subsequently. At the time of the opening of U.S. stock market trading on Thursday, the […] More

Spotlight on Central Banks, Fresh Data and, as Always, Covid

April 15, 2021

The uncertain delayed roll-out of the J&J one-shot Covid vaccine is creating consternation, especially in light of high rates of new cases in many places. The National Bank of Ukraine’s policy interest rate was raised a full percentage point to 7.5%. This was the second straight tightening and twice the size of the initial 50-basis […] More

Central Bank Rate Hike in Ukraine Wasn’t Expected

March 4, 2021

Above-target inflation in Ukraine inspired officials at the National Bank of Ukraine to hike their policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 6.5%. The move was unexpected and the first tightening since a 50-basis point advance to 18.0% in September 2018. Officials had eased five times by a total of 450 basis points in […] More

Dollar Up, Equities and Bond Yields Lower, and U.S. Capitol on Alert

March 4, 2021

March 4th was the day U.S. presidents were inaugurated until the 1930s, and there’s internet chatter suggesting a possible reprise of the January 6th attack on the Capitol. Widely anticipated geopolitical traumas rarely seem to happen as planned. A notable exception occurred July 1, 1997, the day that Hong Kong reverted to Chinese rule. That […] More

Slew of U.S. Executive Orders and Central Bank Policy Reviews

January 21, 2021

President Biden’s inaugural address yesterday called for national unity to face down the many severe challenges now juxtaposed. 17 executive orders followed to reverse several polices of the Trump era. Contrary to warnings, inauguration day was free of domestic violence. U.S. stocks experienced their greatest advance on a presidential inauguration day since 1985, when Reagan […] More

No Deals and Many More Covid Cases… Also Several Central Bank Meetings

December 10, 2020

Talks last night between British Prime Minister Johnson and EU Commission President Von Der Leyden failed to achieve a trade deal. The U.S. senate grinch, Mitch McConnell, put the brakes on efforts to nail down a fiscal stimulus. U.S. Covid deaths yesterday nudged above 3k, and that pace has accelerated to 3,340 over the last […] More

Central Banks of Turkey, Ukraine, and Israel Review Monetary Policies

October 22, 2020

Instead of a follow-through measure after last month’s two percentage point rate hike, officials at the Central Bank of Turkey surprised analysts by keeping their one-week repo rate unchanged at 10.25%. Many had been expected the rate to return to its end-2019 level of 12%. The rate initially this year had been slashed by 75 […] More

Upward Bounce in the Dollar

September 3, 2020

Dollar advances today amount to 0.6% against the Australian dollar and sterling, 0.5% versus the Canadian and New Zealand dollars, and 0.3% relative to the yen and euro. A new high in the dollar was touched against Turkey’s lira after investors learned that Turkish reserves have drained to a 15-year low. The Russian ruble is […] More

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