Chinese CPI and PPI
Surging Oil Price Takes Command of Everything Else
March 9, 2026
(149) At today’s high, the $119.48 peak in West Texas Intermediate oil had leaped by a total 117% in less than three months and was 84% above its closing level on February 27 just before the start of Operation Epic Fury. The price has settled back to $102.4 per barrel currently, still 37% higher than […] More
Awaiting January U.S. Jobs Data and Puzzling Over Other Weird News
February 11, 2026
The Labor Department’s monthly employment situation report, which will in addition include a variety of revisions to past data, is due within the hour. Analysts are anticipating an unchanged 4.4% jobless rate, marginally softer wage growth of some 3.6% year-on-year and a rise of less than 75k jobs. The U.S. FAA has grounded all air […] More
All Eyes on the Federal Reserve
December 10, 2025
This week’s FOMC meeting, whose interest rate announcement today will be made at 14:oo EST and likely involve a 25-basis point cut, is the last one of 2025. The first three scheduled meetings next year (Jan 27-28, Mar 17-18 and Apr 28-29) will be chaired by Jerome Powell. The appointed identity of Powell’s successor could […] More
More Tariff Letters, Extended Uncertainty, and the Beat of Released Data and Central Bank Watching Goes On
July 9, 2025
Many governments received formal letters from President Trump yesterday, and others will get their “greetings” today. One is struck by the similarity of tariff threats assigned to each country to what had been promised nearly 100 days ago. One is also struck by the continuing drip of fresh elements, like a 50% tariff on copper […] More
Two Geopolitical Breakthroughs Send Stocks and Dollar Sharply Higher
May 12, 2025
(192) The Pakistani and Indian governments accepted a brokered ceasefire of their rapidly escalating military conflict in Kashmir. Then came news of greater-than-anticipated 115 percentage point scale-back in U.S. and Chinese tariffs against one another. It’s a temporary 90-day agreement that reduces U.S. tariffs on imported Chinese goods to 30% from 145%, and reciprocal Chinese […] More
Persistent Market Nervousness about U.S. Policy Changes
March 10, 2025
(201) U.S. stock market futures show a decline of more than 1% this Monday, and the weighted dollar index has eased another 0.2%, bringing the decline since end-February to 3.4%. The yen gained 0.6% against the dollar overnight. While the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 26 basis points during the past month, Japan’s 10-year JGB […] More
Looking Ahead to Rising U.S. Tariffs, Chairman Powell’s Congressional Testimony and a Round of U.S. Price Data
February 10, 2025
(205) President Trump will reportedly be announcing tariff hikes on multiple days this week, starting today with a likely 25% levy on all imports of steel and aluminum. Consistent with previous positive dollar reactions to threatened or actual rising tariffs, the U.S. currency appreciated overnight by 0.4% against the loonie, 0.3% relative to the Chinese […] More
Los Angeles Burning As U.S. Readies for a Climate-Denying Government and Mourns a Long-Ago President
January 9, 2025
Fires whipped by powerful winds continue to rage around America’s second largest metropolis. The countdown to the Trump inaugural is down to 11 days. U.S. financial markets, banks and federal offices will be closed today to mourn the passing of America’s 39th president. Every deceased president since Eisenhower (#34) has been given a day of […] More
Dollar Pulled in Different Ways
December 9, 2024
The dollar rose 0.6% overnight against the yen but fell by 1.0% and 0.5% against the Australian and New Zealand currencies. The dollar ticked marginally lower relative to the loonie, peso, sterling and yuan but held steady versus the euro. While 10-year sovereign debt yields slipped a basis point in Japan and Great Britain and […] More
Continuing Post-Election Rally in Dollar and U.S. Equities
November 11, 2024
Banks are closed in the United States and France on this 106th anniversary of the end of the First World War. Bond markets there are consequently closed, but stock exchanges remain open. In overnight trading, the weighted DXY dollar index climbed 0.4% to another five-month high, gaining 1.1% versus the Mexican peso, 0.8% versus the […] More
