Japanese current account
Weaker Dollar and Huge Election Victory for Japanese PM Takaichi’s LDP Party
February 9, 2026
(153) In lower house Japanese parliamentary elections yesterday, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party won 316 of 465 contested seats, up from 198 in the previous election and exceeding their prior record high of 300 in the 1986 election. Yesterday’s landslide win also surpasses the two-thirds threshold that will prevent the lower house from stopping any […] More
Dollar Revival Extended
October 8, 2025
Driven by sluggish growth and political uncertainties affecting other economies, the dollar climbed overnight by a further 0.6% against the Japanese yen and Korean won, 0.4% relative to the New Zealand dollar, 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro and 0.2% versus the Swiss franc, Turkish lira and British pound. The intra-day high in the weighted DXY dollar […] More
Two Geopolitical Breakthroughs Send Stocks and Dollar Sharply Higher
May 12, 2025
(192) The Pakistani and Indian governments accepted a brokered ceasefire of their rapidly escalating military conflict in Kashmir. Then came news of greater-than-anticipated 115 percentage point scale-back in U.S. and Chinese tariffs against one another. It’s a temporary 90-day agreement that reduces U.S. tariffs on imported Chinese goods to 30% from 145%, and reciprocal Chinese […] More
Persistent Market Nervousness about U.S. Policy Changes
March 10, 2025
(201) U.S. stock market futures show a decline of more than 1% this Monday, and the weighted dollar index has eased another 0.2%, bringing the decline since end-February to 3.4%. The yen gained 0.6% against the dollar overnight. While the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 26 basis points during the past month, Japan’s 10-year JGB […] More
Looking Ahead to Rising U.S. Tariffs, Chairman Powell’s Congressional Testimony and a Round of U.S. Price Data
February 10, 2025
(205) President Trump will reportedly be announcing tariff hikes on multiple days this week, starting today with a likely 25% levy on all imports of steel and aluminum. Consistent with previous positive dollar reactions to threatened or actual rising tariffs, the U.S. currency appreciated overnight by 0.4% against the loonie, 0.3% relative to the Chinese […] More
Continuing Post-Election Rally in Dollar and U.S. Equities
November 11, 2024
Banks are closed in the United States and France on this 106th anniversary of the end of the First World War. Bond markets there are consequently closed, but stock exchanges remain open. In overnight trading, the weighted DXY dollar index climbed 0.4% to another five-month high, gaining 1.1% versus the Mexican peso, 0.8% versus the […] More
Market Funk Returns
August 8, 2024
Investors continue to fret over how close the U.S. economy might be to stumbling into a recession. A disappointing auction of 10-year Treasury notes didn’t help, nor did the news of fires in the West and drenching rain along the Eastern Seaboard. Now markets eagerly await this morning’s release of weekly jobless insurance claims, which […] More
Long-Term Interest Rates Higher Still
April 8, 2024
Ten-year sovereign debt yields climbed so far today by four basis points in Germany, two bps in the U.S. and U.K., and a basis point in Japan. The dollar is marginally lower, slipping 0.2% versus the euro, 0.4% against the kiwi, 0.3% relative to the Aussie dollar, and 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling. Not all dollar relationships […] More
A Pause in the Action
February 8, 2024
While equities in China (+1.3%), Japan (+2.1%), France (+0.6% so far), Italy (+0.6%), Spain (+0.5%) and Germany (+0.4%) followed yesterday’s upbeat U.S. example, U.S. futures have paused on technical considerations. China’s gain equated to a loss for Hong Kong today of 1.3% and India of 1.0%. Pakistan’s election today has been marred by outbreaks of […] More
Mideast Tensions Flare and Long-Term Interest Rate Spreads Widen
January 12, 2024
As warned previously, U.S. and British retaliatory air strikes on Houthis targets in Yemen were carried out to avenge previous Houthis attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The price of WTI oil leaped 3.6% overnight on fears of a widening war in the Middle East. While the 10-year U.S. treasury yield climbed three […] More
