Japanese current account
Long-Term Interest Rates Higher Still
April 8, 2024
Ten-year sovereign debt yields climbed so far today by four basis points in Germany, two bps in the U.S. and U.K., and a basis point in Japan. The dollar is marginally lower, slipping 0.2% versus the euro, 0.4% against the kiwi, 0.3% relative to the Aussie dollar, and 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling. Not all dollar relationships […] More
A Pause in the Action
February 8, 2024
While equities in China (+1.3%), Japan (+2.1%), France (+0.6% so far), Italy (+0.6%), Spain (+0.5%) and Germany (+0.4%) followed yesterday’s upbeat U.S. example, U.S. futures have paused on technical considerations. China’s gain equated to a loss for Hong Kong today of 1.3% and India of 1.0%. Pakistan’s election today has been marred by outbreaks of […] More
Mideast Tensions Flare and Long-Term Interest Rate Spreads Widen
January 12, 2024
As warned previously, U.S. and British retaliatory air strikes on Houthis targets in Yemen were carried out to avenge previous Houthis attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The price of WTI oil leaped 3.6% overnight on fears of a widening war in the Middle East. While the 10-year U.S. treasury yield climbed three […] More
Continuing Worry about China’s Economy and an Equivocal Remark from the President of the N.Y. Federal Reserve
September 8, 2023
Equities fell on Friday by 1.3% in Hong Kong, 1.2% in Japan, 0.8% in New Zealand, 0.4% in Indonesia, and 0.2% in China. Japanese GDP growth between the first and second quarters was revised downward from 6.0% at an annualized rate to 4.8%. Compared to 2Q 2022, however, GDP rose just 1.6%, little better than […] More
Wave of Risk Aversion Following Moody’s Downgrade of Mid-Sized Banks and China’s Weak Trade Figures
August 8, 2023
Ten-year sovereign debt yields plunged overnight by 16 basis points in France, 15 bps in Germany and Spain, 12 bps in the U.K. and nine basis points in the United States. Prices for gold and oil have dropped 0.4% and 2.3%, while that for Bitcoin advanced 0.7%. Share prices fell 1.8% in Hong Kong and […] More
Another Weak Round of Chinese Price Data
July 10, 2023
Sharp moves last Friday in equities (down) and the dollar (up) have been only marginally reversed this morning. Share prices in the Pacific Rim closed up 0.6% in Hong Kong and 0.2% in China and Indonesia but dropped 0.6% in Japan and 0.5% in Australia. The German, French and Italian stock exchanges are up 0.6% […] More
Powell’s Hawkish Message Received Along With Some Data Surprises
March 8, 2023
TINA is the acronym for there-is-no-alternative, and that is the unflinching stance that the Federal Reserve wants to convey regarding its priority to restore in-target two percent inflation whatever such takes. In day one of Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony before congress yesterday, that message was expressed more forcefully than before including the surprise hint that […] More
Digesting the Powell and Biden Speeches and Other Central Bank Decisions
February 8, 2023
Fed Chairman Powell yesterday reaffirmed the assertion that inflation has begun to decline but balanced that success with views that the peak in interest rates may be higher than indicated earlier and that the job of restoring in-target inflation will take quite some time longer. With a refrain of let’s-finish-the-job, U.S. President Biden sounded like […] More
Expectations of Further Disinflation Depress the Dollar to 7-Month Weighted Low
January 12, 2023
The dollar plunged 1.4% overnight against the Japanese yen and edged another 0.1% lower relative to the loonie and euro. The weighted DXY dollar index is hovering near its lowest levels since early June and around 10% below last year’s subsequent high. U.S. December CPI inflation figures, due in around 20 minutes, are widely projected […] More
The Morning After
November 9, 2022
The U.S. midterm elections had been among the most anticipated event of 2022 among financial market participants. What is known at this writing is that Republicans retook control of the House of Representatives and will have a seat majority of 25 or more. Control of the Senate remains uncertain, and composition has change little from […] More
