Euroland GDP
Equities Down and Dollar Weak but Little Changed Overnight
December 8, 2020
Senate Majority Leader McConnell has not yet lent his support to the bipartisan U.S. fiscal stimulus plan. Opinion polls suggest the all-important senate races in Georgia are both close, and unprecedented funds are being poured into both contests. The EU summit begins in two days, with fiscal stimulus and trade relations with the U.K. high […] More
Additional Leap in U.S. Covid Cases; Euroland 3Q GDP and U.S. PPI Headline Data Menu
November 13, 2020
The dollar is slightly weaker today, with overnight losses of 0.4% against the peso, 0.3% versus sterling, 0.2% vis-a-vis the yen and Australian dollar, and 0.1% relative to the Swiss franc. The dollar is also unchanged against the yuan and euro. Covid News continued to weigh on Asian equities, which dropped 0.9% in China, 0.7% […] More
Lots of Monthend Data, Fresh Covid Records, Disappointing Tech Earnings, and Home Stretch of the U.S. Election Campaign
October 30, 2020
Almost 600,000 new Covid cases worldwide have been identified in the past day, and the U.S. count exceeded 90,000 for the day and more than 9 million since the first case was reported. U.S. stock futures are down about 1% after several high tech firms reported weaker-than-forecast earnings for 3Q. Share prices in the Pacific […] More
A Many-Sided Investor Gloom
September 8, 2020
The U.S. Labor Day holiday pause didn’t restore stability to tech stocks, which continue to look overpriced and are set to fall sharply again this Tuesday. Talks between the EU and British government over a post-Brexit trade deal and between U.S. Republicans and Democrats over a fiscal stimulus package remain totally stalled, and it looks […] More
Much New Data for Investors to Digest
August 14, 2020
Today’s been one of those Friday’s with a significant body of economic data releases both from both a quantitative and qualitative standpoint. Prior to the U.S. contingent of releases, the dollar overnight had dropped 0.4% against sterling and 0.3% relative to sterling but risen by 0.2% against the Canadian and Australian dollars and 0.1% vis-a-vis […] More
Weak Data, More Coronavirus Cases, and Concern Over Trump’s Wish to Delay November’s Election
July 31, 2020
In spite of overnight dollar gains of 0.5% against the Swiss franc, Mexican peso, and New Zealand dollar and a rise of 0.2% relative to the yen and Australian dollar, the U.S. currency suffered through July and seems likely to post its biggest trade-weighted loss in almost ten years. Compared to Thursday’s close, the dollar […] More
Weak Data and Revised Forecasts Deliver A Reality Check
June 9, 2020
The mood of investors has turned bearish again. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell four basis points and is 8 bps below its recent high. 10-year Japanese JGB and British gilt yields slipped 3 and 1 basis points overnight. The price of WTI oil settled back 0.6%, while that of gold, which benefits from risk […] More
Fractious Politics Magnifying Fear Over the Covid-19 Pandemic
May 15, 2020
The Trump Administration’s harsh rhetoric against China has been elevated to trade sanctions. Semiconductor shipments to the Chinese firm Huawei are being prevented. In another disturbing political development, British Prime Minister Johnson reaffirmed and with more force that there will be no post-Brexit negotiations with the EU beyond the end of this year. In 2020, […] More
ECB Monetary Policy Review and Some Atrocious Economic Data
April 30, 2020
At a scheduled meeting of the European Central Bank Governing Council, officials left key interest rate unchanged (a 0.0% refinancing rate flanked by a -0.5% deposit rate and a 0.25% marginal lending rate). Quantitative stimulus (asset purchases) was not enhanced beyond last month’s parameters. Terms were relaxed on some lending operations, and a new series […] More
Partial Reversal of Monday’s Extreme Financial Market Moves but Mood Remains Extremely Guarded
March 10, 2020
Today’s rebound in equities and sovereign debt yields looks more like a dead-cat bounce than a trend reversal because the Covid-19 pandemic is still widening, skepticism about policy effectiveness and forcefulness is enormous, and the Saudi-Russian oil war is unsettled. Share prices in the Pacific Rim rose 1.8% in China, 3.1% in Australia, 1.6% in […] More
