China trade balance
Investors Excited by Vaccine Trial News and U.S. Election Results
November 9, 2020
Stock markets are rallying on two pieces of news. Initial results of Pfizer’s large-scale trials of a Covid-19 vaccine have reportedly demonstrated 90% effectiveness among people without a prior condition. Donald Trump has lost his bid for a second term as president, but Republicans appear to have retained control of the senate. This combination of […] More
Covid-Related Setbacks in European Confidence, a Smaller Chinese Trade Surplus, and Another Day for Barrett Confirmation Hearings
October 13, 2020
Some risk aversion has returned to Europe. In many countries there, lockdown restrictions against Covid-19 have had to be tightened. And data reports out today reflect rising concern. For example, the ZEW expectations index of financial investor confidence toward Germany suffered a big setback this month, dropping to a five-month low of 56.1 from September’s […] More
Economic Reopening Spreads Even as Pandemic Chugs On
June 8, 2020
Many more business establishments will be reopening on a modified basis this week in a calculated gamble that the Covid-19 pandemic doesn’t intensify unduly as a result. An additional risk for the United States is the unknown impact of the many days of street protests since the death of George Floyd. Globally reported confirmed cases […] More
Disconnection Thursday Between Recessionary Data and Buoyant Stocks
May 7, 2020
Equities were mixed in Asia but have risen more impressively in Europe this morning. There were drops of 0.8% in India, 0.7% in Hong Kong and 0.2% in China but advances of 0.6% in Taiwan, 0.3% in Japan and 0.5% in New Zealand. The British Ftse, German Dax, and Paris Cac each have risen at […] More
Easter Break Over but Covid-19 Pandemic Continues to Dominate Financial Market News
April 14, 2020
Having made the three biggest mistakes in handling the pandemic, the United States has now taken the global lead in both number of cases (30.3% of the worldwide total) and deaths (23,644 or 19.6% of the total). The mistakes were 1) being late to socially distance people, 2) deficient testing to identify asymptomatic carriers of […] More
Pandemonium on Many Fronts
March 9, 2020
The Covid-19 coronavirus continues to spread worldwide, with cases of about 111,500 so far, deaths of 3,833, and 13% of currently infected patients in serious or critical condition. Restrictions on movement have been tightened, many schools are shut, and riots have broken out in some prisons. The price of oil has plummeted. Brent dropped over […] More
More Central Banks Cut Interest Rates, Persistent Trade Tensions, and Lower Inflation
August 8, 2019
Central bank interest rates were cut by 25 basis points today in the Philippines and Serbia. Earlier this week, rates had been reduced by central banks in India (35 bps), Thailand (25 bps), and New Zealand (50 bps). The common thread in these moves is the trade war unleashed by U.S. President Trump, the weaker […] More
Equities and Sovereign Debt Yields Up After U.S. Tariff Hikes on Mexico Averted
June 10, 2019
A deal was reached between U.S. and Mexican officials in which Mexican troops will be deployed to contain migrants crossing into the U.S. and President Trump withdrew his threat of escalating tariffs. The success of this deal will be reassessed in 3 months. In market action overnight equities, the price of oil and 10-year sovereign […] More
Stocks and Oil Firmer but Dollar and Fixed Income Asset Prices Lower
April 12, 2019
The dollar has weakened 0.7% against the Aussie dollar, 0.6% relative to the kiwi, 0.5% versus the euro, 0.4% vis-a-vis the loonie, 0.3% against the yen, peso and sterling and 0.2% versus the Swiss franc and Chinese yuan. The price of WTI oil strengthened nearly 1% overnight and is again above $64.00 per barrel. The […] More
China Leads Overnight Selloff in Stocks
March 8, 2019
Downward pressure on global equities caused by evidence of a slowdown had been building this week but intensified overnight. Share prices in the Pacific Rim plunged 4.4% in China, 2.8% in Hong Kong, 2.0% in Japan, 1.3% in South Korea, 1.2% in Indonesia and Australia, and 1.0% in Singapore. In Europe so far, stocks are […] More
