U.S. CPI
U.S. April CPI Figures Not Worse Than Expected, and That Just May Be Sufficient for Fed Policy to Pause
May 10, 2023
The dollar fell overnight by 0.6% against the yen, 0.3% relative to the euro, 0.2% vis-a-vis the Australian and New Zealand currencies, and 0.1% versus the British pound. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are down today by six basis points in the United States, five bps in France and Italy, four bps in Germany and the […] More
Financial Markets Exhibit Astounding Sensitivity to a Single Inflation Data Point
December 13, 2022
When the wires flashed news that U.S. CPI inflation in November was lower than forecast, share prices soared while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar plunged. The instant reaction of the stock market was significantly reduced in pretty short time, but the sensitivity of financial markets underscored how uncertain traders feel about current […] More
Waiting for U.S. CPI Data on Otherwise Light Load of Released Indicators
October 13, 2022
Equities fell sharply in Asia but are modestly higher in Europe and U.S. futures trading. Analysts expect today’s monthly release of U.S. consumer price figures to show a dip in overall inflation but higher underlying price pressure during September. The dollar overnight lost 0.4% against sterling and 0.3% versus the euro and measured by the […] More
Bracing for Escalating Wars in Ukraine and Against Inflation and Covid
April 12, 2022
All signs are pointing to a more focused and indiscriminate Russian assault on Ukraine. A coming tightening of Western economic sanctions drove the price of West Texas Intermediate oil up 4.1% overnight, but what Ukraine desperately needs is greater military support. That may be coming, too. Covid cases are rising again. 49.4 thousand new cases […] More
Several Central Banks Left Rates Steady, But Fresh Price Data Fan Concern
February 10, 2022
The Reserve Bank of India‘s repo and reverse repo rates were left unchanged at 4.0% and 3.35%. A released statement explains, “The MPC notes that inflation is likely to moderate in H1:2022-23 and move closer to the target rate thereafter, providing room to remain accommodative” And adds “the ongoing domestic recovery is still incomplete and […] More
Several Countries Releasing Price Data Today
January 12, 2022
The following price data were reported before the highly awaited U.S. CPI report: Chinese consumer price inflation slowed more than predicted in December, dropping 0.8 percentage points from a 15-month high of 2.3% in November to a 2-month low of 1.5%. Average CPI inflation in 2021 of 0.9% was only a third of the government’s […] More
More Signs of Intensifying Inflation and Another Central Bank Rate Hike
November 10, 2021
The dollar didn’t move much right after U.S. CPI data were released but had already advanced by 0.0.4% overnight on a weighted basis before then to within 0.2% of its 52-week high. Dollar gains amounted to 0.5% against the kiwi and sterling, 0.4% relative to the euro and yen, and 0.3% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc […] More
Global Stock Markets and Dollar Pause
November 9, 2021
The strength of equities in October and the first week of November was fed by the tapering patience of major central banks, evidence of continuing economic recovery in spite of Covid and inflation, and robust corporate earnings. But new concerns are adding to the pile. Biden’s still-unannounced choice to lead the Fed Board of Governors […] More
Good, Bad and Ugly
September 14, 2021
Start with the ugly. New Covid cases in the United States spiked to more than 172.4k yesterday, and deaths topped 1800. Even as almost half the whole population remains unvaccinated, there is confusion over who is eligible for boosters and when children under age 12 will be allowed to get vaccinated. As Covid goes, so […] More
Several Equity Markets in Unchartered Waters; Today’s Data Front Features CPI and Retail Sales
August 11, 2021
The weighted dollar index touched an 18-week high overnight but is currently down 0.1% on balance. The dollar is also 0.1% lower against the euro, sterling and Swissie but unchanged relative to the yen and loonie. The dollar has dropped 0.6% against the Mexican peso but shows a 0.7% rise versus Turkey’s lira. In early […] More
