U.S. April CPI Figures Not Worse Than Expected, and That Just May Be Sufficient for Fed Policy to Pause

May 10, 2023

The dollar fell overnight by 0.6% against the yen, 0.3% relative to the euro, 0.2% vis-a-vis the Australian and New Zealand currencies, and 0.1% versus the British pound. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are down today by six basis points in the United States, five bps in France and Italy, four bps in Germany and the […] More

Financial Markets Exhibit Astounding Sensitivity to a Single Inflation Data Point

December 13, 2022

When the wires flashed news that U.S. CPI inflation in November was lower than forecast, share prices soared while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar plunged. The instant reaction of the stock market was significantly reduced in pretty short time, but the sensitivity of financial markets underscored how uncertain traders feel about current […] More

Waiting for U.S. CPI Data on Otherwise Light Load of Released Indicators

October 13, 2022

Equities fell sharply in Asia but are modestly higher in Europe and U.S. futures trading. Analysts expect today’s monthly release of U.S. consumer price figures to show a dip in overall inflation but higher underlying price pressure during September. The dollar overnight lost 0.4% against sterling and 0.3% versus the euro and measured by the […] More

Bracing for Escalating Wars in Ukraine and Against Inflation and Covid

April 12, 2022

All signs are pointing to a more focused and indiscriminate Russian assault on Ukraine. A coming tightening of Western economic sanctions drove the price of West Texas Intermediate oil up 4.1% overnight, but what Ukraine desperately needs is greater military support. That may be coming, too. Covid cases are rising again. 49.4 thousand new cases […] More

Several Central Banks Left Rates Steady, But Fresh Price Data Fan Concern

February 10, 2022

The Reserve Bank of India‘s repo and reverse repo rates were left unchanged at 4.0% and 3.35%. A released statement explains, “The MPC notes that inflation is likely to moderate in H1:2022-23 and move closer to the target rate thereafter, providing room to remain accommodative” And adds “the ongoing domestic recovery is still incomplete and […] More

Several Countries Releasing Price Data Today

January 12, 2022

The following price data were reported before the highly awaited U.S. CPI report: Chinese consumer price inflation slowed more than predicted in December, dropping 0.8 percentage points from a 15-month high of 2.3% in November to a 2-month low of 1.5%. Average CPI inflation in 2021 of 0.9% was only a third of the government’s […] More

More Signs of Intensifying Inflation and Another Central Bank Rate Hike

November 10, 2021

The dollar didn’t move much right after U.S. CPI data were released but had already advanced by 0.0.4% overnight on a weighted basis before then to within 0.2% of its 52-week high. Dollar gains amounted to 0.5% against the kiwi and sterling, 0.4% relative to the euro and yen, and 0.3% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc […] More

Global Stock Markets and Dollar Pause

November 9, 2021

The strength of equities in October and the first week of November was fed by the tapering patience of major central banks, evidence of continuing economic recovery in spite of Covid and inflation, and robust corporate earnings. But new concerns are adding to the pile. Biden’s still-unannounced choice to lead the Fed Board of Governors […] More

Good, Bad and Ugly

September 14, 2021

Start with the ugly. New Covid cases in the United States spiked to more than 172.4k yesterday, and deaths topped 1800. Even as almost half the whole population remains unvaccinated, there is confusion over who is eligible for boosters and when children under age 12 will be allowed to get vaccinated. As Covid goes, so […] More

Several Equity Markets in Unchartered Waters; Today’s Data Front Features CPI and Retail Sales

August 11, 2021

The weighted dollar index touched an 18-week high overnight but is currently down 0.1% on balance. The dollar is also 0.1% lower against the euro, sterling and Swissie but unchanged relative to the yen and loonie. The dollar has dropped 0.6% against the Mexican peso but shows a 0.7% rise versus Turkey’s lira. In early […] More