German trade surplus
Central Banks In the Forefront
December 9, 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day policy review begins today and is widely expected to cut the federal funds target interest rate by 25 basis points, matching the previous decisions in September and late October. A scheduled quarterly update of Fed forecasts and Chairman Powell’s press conference will be carefully gleaned for clarifying guidance to […] More
Confusion Caused by U.S. Federal Shutdown Intensifies in Two Directions
November 7, 2025
Every day now brings a new record duration in the current U.S. federal government shutdown. Neither political side of the stalemate has found an advantageous way to compromise without appearing to lose. The pain level took a big step upward yesterday when the Transportation Department ordered significant reductions in scheduled flights. Cancelled flights were the […] More
Awaiting Powell’s Speech
October 9, 2025
There’s been little reaction to news that Hamas and Israel reached a deal that is supposed to allow an exchange of hostages and prisoners and pave the way to a ceasefire in Gaza by the weekend. Financial market attention is instead focused on Fed policy. In the wake of yesterday’s published FOMC minutes that showed […] More
Persistent Market Nervousness about U.S. Policy Changes
March 10, 2025
(201) U.S. stock market futures show a decline of more than 1% this Monday, and the weighted dollar index has eased another 0.2%, bringing the decline since end-February to 3.4%. The yen gained 0.6% against the dollar overnight. While the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 26 basis points during the past month, Japan’s 10-year JGB […] More
Much U.S. Data, An Unclear Truce Between Israel & Hamas, ECB Minutes and Much More
January 16, 2025
U.S. data reported this Thursday revealed The biggest weekly total of new jobless insurance claims (217k) in three weeks but their lowest 4-week average in 42 weeks. A healthy labor market, all in all. A 0.4% rise in retail sales last month, somewhat less than forecast but following an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in November. […] More
Extreme Stock Market Volatility in China, Central Bank News in New Zealand, India and the U.S., and Historic Storm Front Heading for Florida
October 9, 2024
The Shanghai Composite equity index tumbled 6.6% today, more than reversing yesterday’s 4.6% advance. China’s finance minister reportedly will announce a set of fiscal stimulus measures on October 12, but investors doubt such will amount to what that economy currently needs. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate was cut at today’s scheduled […] More
Much to Absorb This Wednesday
March 6, 2024
Fed Chairman Powell’s semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before the House Financial Services Committee begins today at 10:00 EST ((15:00 GMT). The Fed’s website already has published a summary of his opening statement. We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle… The Committee does not expect that it will be […] More
