Japanese corporate service prices
Tariff News Back in the Spotlight Along with A Looming U.S. Federal Government Shutdown
September 26, 2025
President Trump has unveiled several fresh tariff hikes, including a levies of 100% on imported pharmaceuticals, 25-50% on bathroom vanities and kitchen cabinets, and 25% on long trucks. China and other Asian economies are seen as particularly vulnerable. The EU is raising its tariff on Chinese steel. Oddsmakers foresee a big likelihood of a U.S. […] More
Higher Long-Term Interest Rates But Scant Changes So Far Today in Dollar or Equities
May 28, 2025
The 10-year Japanese JGB yield climbed five basis points this Wednesday back to 1.50% despite a warning from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda that volatile long-term rates carry risk. Other 10-year sovereign debt yields have risen by 3 basis points in the U.K., 2 bps in the United States, and a basis point in Germany, […] More
Tentative Black Sea Ceasefire, Lower-Than-Forecast British Inflation & Chancellor Reeves to Augment Spending Cuts
March 26, 2025
A tentative U.S.-brokered deal to end Black Sea combat and attacks on energy infrastructure has been announced between Ukraine and Russia, provided the U.S. reduces economic sanctions against Putin’s state. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves is now delivering her Spring Economic Statement, updating forecasts and unveiling additional spending cuts. Separately, British February CPI figures […] More
Many Markets Remain Closed, Korean Won & Turkish Lira Falter
December 26, 2024
Holiday closures continued Thursday in most of Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, South Africa, and other parts of Africa. The dollar strengthened 0.5% against the South Korean won and 0.3% versus the Turkish lira. South Korean President Han Duck-Soo faces impeachment, and the Central Bank of Turkey’s one-week repo rate was slashed by a […] More
Looking for a Fresh Direction
August 27, 2024
The U.S. presidential debate is two weeks away, and the mother of all elections will follow eight weeks after that. A once highly likely victory for Trump has been transformed into a close contest. The FOMC next meets September 17-18. Chairman Powell has all but telegraphed a rate cut then, but it’s size is uncertain […] More
Markets Waiting for the Proverbial Godot, I.E. Fed Easing
May 28, 2024
I found the market’s initially upbeat reaction to Fed Chairman Powell’s May 1st press conference puzzling and dismaying and in my opening post the following day wrote Investors had a somewhat more comforting reaction to Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference than I, fixating on the fact that he generally doubted there were be a need […] More
Marking Time Monday
February 26, 2024
Today has been another Monday, with scant news to act upon and investors looking ahead to events later in the week with market-moving potential. The dollar has settled back 0.2% on a weighted basis, dipping 0.3% against the euro, 0.2% versus sterling and 0.1% relative to the Canadian currency but edging 0.1% higher against the […] More
Perfect Storm of Dysfunctional Congress, Hawkish Fed, Elevated Oil Prices Depresses Equities and Bond Prices but Dollar Stays Well-Bid
September 26, 2023
The U.S. is careening toward a government shutdown that could tarnish its credit rating. Kashkari and Bowman are the latest Fed officials to warn of likely interest rate hikes next quarter. Although down 0.7% so far today, the high price of WTI oil, which touched $91.5 per barrel last week, remains a threat to the […] More
Weighted DXY Dollar Index Touched an 11-Week High Overnight Ahead of Powell’s Speech Today
August 25, 2023
Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium begins in about 15 minutes. He’s expected to stress the themes that there’s no alternative to the goal of restoring sustained in-target inflation, that more work has to be done, that quite a while longer must pass before officials can even think of […] More
FOMC Rate Announcement at 18:00 GMT to Be Followed By Powell’s Press Conference
July 26, 2023
Investors are positioned for a further 25-basis point hike in the federal funds target later today and will pay particular attention to what is said about likely rate decisions over the balance of 2023. U.S. CPI inflation has slowed more rapidly than was expected to 3.0% from a peak of 9.1%, but labor market conditions […] More
