Australia CPI
Dollar Strengthens Marginally Further
October 27, 2023
A statement from the Central Bank of Chile justifying a smaller interest rate reduction after today’s scheduled meeting ties a nice bow around the interconnection of the surprisingly resilient U.S. economy, the hawkish Fed stance, geopolitical danger, elevated long-term interest rates, dollar appreciation, and the vulnerability of share prices and developing country currencies. The main […] More
A Wide Spectrum of Developments to Watch Today
October 25, 2023
Germany has been among Euroland’s weakest economies this year. Real GDP was flat in the second quarter following back-to-back contractions in the prior two quarters, and average GDP in the first half of 2023 was 0.2% below its year-earlier level. But today’s release of the IFO Institute’s October German business climate index offers a ray […] More
FOMC Rate Announcement at 18:00 GMT to Be Followed By Powell’s Press Conference
July 26, 2023
Investors are positioned for a further 25-basis point hike in the federal funds target later today and will pay particular attention to what is said about likely rate decisions over the balance of 2023. U.S. CPI inflation has slowed more rapidly than was expected to 3.0% from a peak of 9.1%, but labor market conditions […] More
Fresh Concerns about the Banking System, But Also Some Good News from Tech Sector
April 26, 2023
First Republic Bank’s deposit base hemorrhaged over $100 billion last quarter. This disclosure sent the company’s stock price plunging 49% overnight. In contrast, the earnings reports of Alphabet and other tech giants surprised on the upside, and the Nasdaq has risen 1.2% in futures trading. In overseas equity markets, Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed down […] More
Convergence of Fed-ECB Interest Rate Biases Sends Dollar Lower
October 26, 2022
The dollar has prospered throughout 2022 largely because the Federal Reserve had been seen as more aggressive in raising interest rates than the European Central Bank and other central banks. Today’s main market theme is that perhaps the monetary policy gap will not be as wide as thought previously. The ECB Governing Council will likely […] More
Global Equity Prices Remain Highly Unstable
January 25, 2022
Five problems are contributing to stock market volatility around the world: The highest geopolitical tensions between the United States and Russia since the Cold War ended. A high probability that tomorrow’s Fed statement and press conference will signal a rate hike liftoff in March. Uncertainty over how inflation will evolve in 2022 after last year’s […] More
Two-Day FOMC Meeting Ends Today with Likely Same Dovish Message
July 28, 2021
Against the backdrop of rising Covid-19 infections in the United States, this isn’t the time for the Fed to express a lot of concern about inflation or to show greater urgency as official begin to contemplate a plan to taper monetary stimulus. In the three days of July 25-27, new U.S. coronavirus cases averaged 57.3k […] More
A Double Feature for Investors Today of Big Events: Powell then Biden
April 28, 2021
The FOMC wraps up its two-day policy review today. The policy statement, due at 14:00 EDT, will concede a brightening growth picture with accelerating inflation but is unlikely to modify forward guidance that welcomes a period of inflation somewhat above target rather than aiming to quash such quickly. Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference afterward begins […] More
Many Data Releases while Investors Monitor Coronavirus and Await FOMC Decision
January 29, 2020
China remains closed ostensibly for holiday but in reality due to the spreading coronavirus epidemic with the number of confirmed cases so far surpassing 6,000. Taiwan markets also were shut. The dollar firmed overnight by 0.3% against the kiwi, 0.2% relative to the euro, Swiss franc, loonie and Aussie dollar, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the peso […] More
Paused Rise of Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields but Commodity Rally Continued Overnight
April 24, 2018
The dollar slipped overnight by 0.2% against the Aussie dollar and sterling and 0.1% versus the euro. The kiwi and yen fell 0.3%, while the loonie is flat. The ten-year Treasury yield eased back a basis point and, at 2.97%, remains below the key 3.0% threshold. Ten-year German bund, British gilt and Japanese JGB yields […] More
