German business climate index
Oil Price Drop to the Rescue
July 27, 2026
(129) As is often the case, President Trump chose a weekend when news cycles are less responsive for another twist in his Iran war strategy. U.S. air strikes were suspended, and Iran in kind did the same in its campaign against U.S. military targets in the region. In knee-jerk fashion, oil prices plunged 6.8% to […] More
Three-Dimensional Chaos
February 23, 2026
(151) Trading volume in the U.S. today will be muted by a blizzard affecting tens of millions in the Northeast corridor. Stock markets in Japan and China were shut by the Emperor’s Birthday holiday and the tail end of Lunar New Year observances, respectively. The Middle East is on high alert of what appears to […] More
Weaker Dollar to Start final Week of January
January 26, 2026
(155) Ahead of a possible U.S. government shutdown at the end of this month and on the heels of another killed civilian in Minneapolis, the dollar by early afternoon in NY had depreciated 1.2% against the yen, 0.8% versus the Swiss franc, South Korean won and kiwi and 0.5% relative to the euro and sterling. […] More
Fragile Truce Between Iran & Israel, Powell’s Upcoming Testimony and Another Sign of Slow Improvement in German Business Sentiment
June 24, 2025
In a triumph of geopolitics over economics, financial markets rallied initially overnight on news of the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, but that momentum paused on doubts the truce will hold. Fed Chairman Powell’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to congress (formerly known as the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony) kicks off at 10:00 EDT today before the […] More
Worst Case German Election Result Averted
February 24, 2025
(203) The German DAX index rallied 0.9% so far on a day that saw many Pacific Rim stock markets falter, including declines of 1.8% in New Zealand, 1.1% in India, 0.7% in Taiwan, 0.6% in Indonesia and Hong Kong, 0.2% in China. U.S. stock futures are somewhat higher but in recent days have failed to […] More
Flat Dollar, Equities Mixed, Many Data Releases, and a Larger-than-Forecast Russian Interest Rate Hike
October 25, 2024
Major dollar relationships show minimal net movement from Thursday closings. Equity markets fell 0.6% in Japan, 0.8% in India and New Zealand and Spain so far, but advanced by 0.7% in Taiwan, 0.6% in China, 0.5% in Hong Kong and 0.2% so far in Germany. U.S. stock futures are modestly in the black but headed […] More
Several Data Surprises Accentuate Healthier U.S. Economy than Found in Other Countries
July 25, 2024
A 2.8% annualized quarter-on-quarter U.S. growth rate in April-June was twice the pace in the prior quarter and beat analyst expectation by three-quarters of a percentage point. Positive contributions to GDP growth were made by personal consumption (1.6 percentage points ppts) and non-residential business investment (0.7 ppts),and inventory growth more than offset the 0.7 ppt […] More
Very Quiet Start to Week with U.S. and U.K. Shut for Holidays
May 27, 2024
Americans are observing their Memorial Day holiday, while British markets are shut for the late spring bank holiday. Minimal data have been released elsewhere. The dollar edged 0.1% lower overnight against the euro, yen, loonie, Swiss franc, sterling and as measured by the DXY weighted index. Ten-year sovereign debt yields are three basis points lower […] More
Data and Central Bank Meetings Both in Thursday’s Spotlight
January 25, 2024
The U.S. dollar has been generally steady, however, with overnight upticks of 0.3% against the Swiss franc and 0.1% relative to the euro but 0.1% downticks versus sterling and the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. U.S. stock futures are also flat. Major continental stock markets are down 0.5-1.1%, pending the ECB rate announcement and […] More
Slow Start to the Week Before Christmas
December 18, 2023
The weighted DXY dollar index held steady on balance overnight, climbing 0.4% against the yen and peso but dropping 0.2% relative to the euro and 0.4% versus the Swissie and Aussie dollar. Share prices closed down 1.0% in Hong Kong, 0.6% in Japan and 0.4% in China. The German Dax and Paris Cac are 0.3% […] More
