Trump Remark Elevates Peace Deal Hopes Further
June 12, 2026
Not for the first time in the last three months, President Trump has claimed that deal negotiations have made great progress, enough so to call off fresh military strikes against Iran. The multi-point plan reportedly would remove both Iranian and U.S. impediments against shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, unfreeze Iranian financial assets, and result in many U.S. forces leaving the region. Mr. Trump speculated that the deal might get finalized as quickly as this weekend, a prediction that Iran has not weighed in on, and conspicuously the primary motive behind America’s military attack that began back on February 28 — to deprive Iran of the means to build an arsenal of nuclear weapons — was missing from the president’s latest comments.
Be that as it may, neither that omission nor a bunch of price data released this Friday has dented yesterday’s financial market euphoria.
- Stock markets in Asia and the Pacific Rim closed up 2.8% in Japan, 4.6% in South Korea, 2.4% in Taiwan, 2.3% in India, 2.1% in Indonesia, 1.9% in Hong Kong, 2.8% in Australia and 1.8% in New Zealand.
- Major European stock market gains thus far range from 1.3% in the U.K. to 2.2% in Spain, and yesterday’s big gains in the four major U.S. stock market barometers have been extended in futures trading by 0.5-0.7%.
- While the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is holding steady, other comparable sovereign debt yields are down eight basis points in Australia, seven bps in Italy, six bps in the U.K. and Japan, five bps in France, four bps in Spain and three bps in Germany.
- West Texas Intermediate crude oil dived another 4% to an 8-week low around $84.5 per barrel.
- Precious metal prices like silver (+5.1%) and gold (+2.8%) are sharply higher, but Bitcoin is only steady.
- Aside from a 0.7% retreat against the Indonesian rupiah, dollar moves today so far have been insignificant.
Germany confirmed the preliminary 2.6% estimate of consumer price inflation, a three-month low but still a full percentage point above the 1.6% low touched in September 2024. A rise in core German CPI inflation to 2.5% from 2.3% in the prior month was also revealed. Service sector price inflation accelerated to 3.1% from 2.8% in Europe’s largest economy.
The final estimate of French consumer price inflation last month was also unrevised at the 27-month high of 2.4%, while core French inflation that excludes food and energy accelerated in May to 1.5% from 1.2% and just 0.7% back in January.
In South America’s largest economy of Brazil, consumer prices rose 0.6% in May, lifting the 12-month rate of increase to an 8-month high of 4.72% versus just 3.81% back in February.
In the world’s most populous nation, India, consumer price inflation increased almost a half percentage point to a 16-month high of 3.93% in May, which compares with a record low of just 0.25% touched last October.
Romanian CPI inflation, which bottomed in September 2024 at 4.6%, stayed in double digits last month at a 35-month high of 12.9%.
Serbian CPI inflation of 3.5% in May was at a 9-month high versus a 38-month low of 2.4% four months earlier.
Spanish CPI inflation of 3.2% overall matched April’s reading but was over twice the cyclical low of 1.5% in September 2024. Core inflation in Spain edged 0.1 percentage point higher to 2.9%.
Portuguese CPI inflation last month matched April’s 3.3% reading, which constitutes its highest level since mid 2023.
Croatian producer price inflation in May of 6.7% was almost as high as April’s 37-month high of 7.0% in April and well above last January’s -1,2% reading, not to mention -4.7% in September 2024.
In other data reported today, New Zealand’s manufacturing purchasing managers index slid below the 50 neutral level to an 11-month low in May of 49.9. Such ended 2025 at a robust 56.2 level.
Japanese industrial production growth in April was revised lower to a monthly rise of 0.5% and year-on-year growth of 2.0%. In the years prior to this one, Japanese industrial production had dropped 1.9% in 2023, 5.2% in 2024 and 0.2% in 2025.
British monthly GDP edged 0.1% lower in April. Industrial production stagnated in the month and was 0.2% lower than in April 2025. Construction output edged up 0.1 but was 1.0% lower than a year earlier. Sluggish growth in the U.K. isn’t being helped by net foreign demand. The merchandise trade deficit in January-April of GBP 92.1 billion was 19.6% wider than in the first third of 2025.
Late yesterday from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru came expected word that monetary officials had again left their policy rate unchanged at 4.25% where such has been since last September. The Middle Eastern war has made officials more cautious.They had been gradually making monetary conditions less restrictive since the policy rate’s peak of 7.75% for much of 2023. Starting in September of that year, the rate was cut 100 basis points in the rest of 2023, 175 bps in 2024, and 75 bps during 2025. According to the latest statement of policy explanation, “Given that most of the inflation is driven by supply-side factors expected to be
temporary, both headline and core inflation are expected to return to the target range within the forecast horizon and to stabilize around 2 percent in 2027.”
Copyright 2026, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: British industrial production and trade balance, Central Reserve Bank of Peru
ShareThis
