U.S. trade deficit

Two-Day FOMC Meeting Ends Today with Likely Same Dovish Message

July 28, 2021

Against the backdrop of rising Covid-19 infections in the United States, this isn’t the time for the Fed to express a lot of concern about inflation or to show greater urgency as official begin to contemplate a plan to taper monetary stimulus. In the three days of July 25-27, new U.S. coronavirus cases averaged 57.3k […] More

Dollar Ending 2020 at Year’s Weakest Point

December 30, 2020

The trade-weighted DXY dollar index hit a new 32-month low today of 89.68, some 13% below the year’s high last March. Overnight losses amounted to 0.8% relative to the Australian dollar and sterling, 0.7% versus the New Zealand dollar, 0.5% against the yen, 0.4% vis-a-vis the Mexican peso, 0.3% against the Canadian dollar, 0.2% versus […] More

Price of Oil Jumps and Dollar Falters

August 5, 2020

Overnight declines in the dollar amount to 1.0% against the Mexican peso, 0.9% versus the Australian dollar, 0.6% relative to the euro, Swiss franc and loonie, 0.5% vis-a-vis the kiwi, yuan and sterling and 0.2% against the yen. The price of WTI oil leaped 3.2%, partly in response to an enormous explosion at the port […] More

Brief Comment on U.S. Jobless Insurance Claims and Trade Deficit

April 2, 2020

New weekly jobless insurance claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, shot up by a much greater-than-forecast 6.648 million workers. This was the second big overshoot in a row, yielding a 2-week total of 9.955 million. The weekly average of new claims in the first two months of 2020 had been 212-3/8K, by comparison. As […] More

Trade Tensions Trigger Stampede Out of Risk

August 2, 2019

U.S.-China trade talks do not appear to be going well, and U.S. June trade data didn’t help investor confidence that the problem may get resolved. Stock markets and sovereign debt yields tumbled around the world, as investors ran from riskier assets. Among currencies, traditional safe havens like the yen (up 0.8% against the dollar overnight) […] More

Unorthodox Appointments, Service Sector PMIs, and an Early Market Close in the United States

July 3, 2019

The dollar recorded scant net change Wednesday aside from 0.6% declines against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Share prices fell 1.1% in China and 0.5% in Japan but were buoyed  in Europe and the United States by some unexpected key appointments that investors are perceiving as a harbinger of more forceful easy money policies. […] More

Soft Data and Event Risk

February 27, 2019

It’s been a mixed morning for the dollar, which is unchanged against the yen and euro, 0.4% firmer against the Australian and New Zealand currencies, but down 0.5% versus sterling, 0.3% relative to the yuan and loonie, 0.2% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc, and 0.1% against the peso. WTI oil advanced 2.1%, while the price of […] More

Growth in U.S. Manufacturing Slowed Sharply Last Month Both Absolutely and Relative to Euroland Counterpart

January 3, 2019

In contrast to November when the ISM-compiled U.S. purchasing managers index exceeded the IHS-compiled PMI for the euro area by the widest margin in four years, that differential in December narrowed by 4.8 index points in December to an 8-month low of 2.7 points. The U.S. index dropped 5.2 points to a 25-month low of […] More

Gold and Yen Stronger but Stocks, Bond Yields, and Emerging Market Currencies Decline

April 5, 2016

The yen is 0.6% stronger on balance, powered by a fresh wave of safe-haven seeking capital flows.  Many service sector PMI reports were disappointing.  Japan’s index and its composite PMI fell to one-year lows, for example.  The yen touched 110.26 per dollar, its most appreciated level since October 2014.  Comex gold rose 1.3% to $1,231.59.  […] More

U.S. Trade Deficit Contained by Plunging Price of OPEC Oil

December 29, 2015

The census-basis U.S. merchandise trade deficit of $614.2 billion accrued over the first ten months of 2015 was an insignificant $3.45 billion wider than the year-earlier shortfall.  However, that trivial change masks huge shifts in the distribution of deficit across foreign markets.  Trade with OPEC swung to a $4.35 billion surplus from a $47.8 billion […] More

css.php