U.S. trade deficit

Escalating Financial and Political Chaos in Ukraine and Russia, and Rest of World Feeling Pain, Too

February 28, 2022

Ukrainian and Russian talks in Belarus are unlikely to defuse the military conflict. Russian President Putin seeks to replace Ukraine’s government and has insinuated that he may use nuclear weapons if Nato doesn’t back off. In this high stakes game game of chicken, Nato allies seek to decapitate the Russian ruble and financial markets and […] More

Continuing Market Reverberations from FOMC Minutes

January 6, 2022

FOMC minutes released yesterday afternoon, which served notice that the federal funds rate is likely to rise further in 2022 than implied earlier and that central bank balance sheet reduction will commence sooner too, have¬† helped allay concerns that monetary officials are treating the threat of inflation too lightly. Given this change, investors on the […] More

U.S. Sets Records for Monthly Trade Deficit and Number of New Covid Cases

December 29, 2021

With 2021 winding down, the dollar settled back overnight by 0.3% overnight against sterling and peso and by 0.2% relative to the euro, Swissie, Australian dollar, kiwi, and weighted DXY index. However, 2021 has been a robust year for the dollar, which sports a 7% weighted on-year advance. Identified cases of Covid are busting out […] More

Two-Day FOMC Meeting Ends Today with Likely Same Dovish Message

July 28, 2021

Against the backdrop of rising Covid-19 infections in the United States, this isn’t the time for the Fed to express a lot of concern about inflation or to show greater urgency as official begin to contemplate a plan to taper monetary stimulus. In the three days of July 25-27, new U.S. coronavirus cases averaged 57.3k […] More

Dollar Ending 2020 at Year’s Weakest Point

December 30, 2020

The trade-weighted DXY dollar index hit a new 32-month low today of 89.68, some 13% below the year’s high last March. Overnight losses amounted to 0.8% relative to the Australian dollar and sterling, 0.7% versus the New Zealand dollar, 0.5% against the yen, 0.4% vis-a-vis the Mexican peso, 0.3% against the Canadian dollar, 0.2% versus […] More

Price of Oil Jumps and Dollar Falters

August 5, 2020

Overnight declines in the dollar amount to 1.0% against the Mexican peso, 0.9% versus the Australian dollar, 0.6% relative to the euro, Swiss franc and loonie, 0.5% vis-a-vis the kiwi, yuan and sterling and 0.2% against the yen. The price of WTI oil leaped 3.2%, partly in response to an enormous explosion at the port […] More

Brief Comment on U.S. Jobless Insurance Claims and Trade Deficit

April 2, 2020

New weekly jobless insurance claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, shot up by a much greater-than-forecast 6.648 million workers. This was the second big overshoot in a row, yielding a 2-week total of 9.955 million. The weekly average of new claims in the first two months of 2020 had been 212-3/8K, by comparison. As […] More

Trade Tensions Trigger Stampede Out of Risk

August 2, 2019

U.S.-China trade talks do not appear to be going well, and U.S. June trade data didn’t help investor confidence that the problem may get resolved. Stock markets and sovereign debt yields tumbled around the world, as investors ran from riskier assets. Among currencies, traditional safe havens like the yen (up 0.8% against the dollar overnight) […] More

Unorthodox Appointments, Service Sector PMIs, and an Early Market Close in the United States

July 3, 2019

The dollar recorded scant net change Wednesday aside from 0.6% declines against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Share prices fell 1.1% in China and 0.5% in Japan but were buoyed¬† in Europe and the United States by some unexpected key appointments that investors are perceiving as a harbinger of more forceful easy money policies. […] More

Soft Data and Event Risk

February 27, 2019

It’s been a mixed morning for the dollar, which is unchanged against the yen and euro, 0.4% firmer against the Australian and New Zealand currencies, but down 0.5% versus sterling, 0.3% relative to the yuan and loonie, 0.2% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc, and 0.1% against the peso. WTI oil advanced 2.1%, while the price of […] More

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