Euroland PPI
Dollar and Tech Stocks Stagger
December 3, 2025
Around mid-day in NY, the dollar is showing losses from Tuesday closing levels of 0.9% against sterling, 0.6% relative to the kiwi, 0.4% vis-a-vis the yen and Aussie dollar, 0.3% versus the euro and Swiss franc, and 0.2% against Canada’s currency. The DXY weighted dollar measure is off 0.5%, and the euro is around its […] More
Trade Concerns Back in the Forefront
July 4, 2025
Having secured a single broad tax and spending bill, President Trump turned attention back to promised trade tariffs, and once again investors are learning of a sudden policy shift. Instead of a multitude of trade negotiations with complex commodity-specific and varied tariff charges, the president has elected instead to issue letters to each country detailing […] More
Trump Speech, Lutnick’s Scoop, and Across-the-Board Large Rise in Long-Term European Interest Rates
March 5, 2025
President Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress last night lasted 99 minutes (a multi-decade record) but was predictable for the most part. The element of policy surprise was leaked by Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who indicated that 25% tariffs imposed against Canada and Mexico could be scaled back soon, depending on the result of […] More
Republican Victory Lifts Dollar, U.S. Equities, and 10-Year Treasury Yield Sharply
November 6, 2024
Donald Trump’s declared electoral votes topped the magical 270 much more quickly than had been expected. Republicans also recaptured a senate majority and lead in House seat contest with 57 still undecided. Trump has a 3.5 percentage point majority in the popular vote. Jill Stern and RFK Jr. combined siphoned off 0.8 percentage points of […] More
Financial Market Risk Aversion Persisting
September 4, 2024
Equity markets slumped today by 4.5% in Taiwan, 4.2% in Japan, 3.2% in South Korea, 1.1% in Singapore and Hong Kong, and 0.7% in China. Major European stock markets are down around 0.5-1.0%, and U.S. futures point to a further decline, led by the tech sector. Nvdia, for instance, shows a pre-market slide of 2.1%. […] More
Holidays in the U.K., Japan and South Korea Tamp Down Market Volatility
May 6, 2024
Great Britain is observing its early spring bank holiday, while the Japanese and South Koreans are celebrating Children’s Day. Data releases have been comparatively few this Monday and limited to an additional batch of April purchasing manager surveys and Euroland producer prices. The dollar’s net weighted change compared to its closing before the weekend has […] More
Lessening Confidence that U.S., European, or Japanese Central Banks Will Ease Monetary Policy Soon or By Much
November 7, 2023
A big takeaway from the 1970s is that inflationary periods evolve in waves when monetary policy is sensitive to signs of weakening growth. That is why central bankers for the past year have been emphasizing a need not just for actual and expected price deceleration but strong confidence that inflation will return all the way […] More
Fitch’s Downgrade of the U.S. Debt Rating Pushes Long-Term Interest Rates Higher
August 3, 2023
In the wake of the announced downgrading of U.S. government debt and amid doubts about a coming recession, the 10-year Treasury yield rose nine basis points overnight and touched a high of 4.18%, which compares to 3.31% just over four months ago. 4.18% is the highest level since early last November. Other 10-year sovereign debt […] More
Price of Oil Back in the Spotlight
June 5, 2023
At the weekend’s meeting of OPEC plus oil ministers, Saudi Arabia announced a further production cut of one million barrels barrels per day, effective July 1, and WTI oil is trading 2.6% higher as a result although about $1.5 below today’s earlier peak. The dollar has opened the week on an up beat, with gains […] More
Mulling Service-Sector PMI Results and Waiting for the ECB Rate Hike
May 4, 2023
The dollar is modestly softer this Thursday, with drops of 0.2% against the yen and 0.1% versus the euro, Canadian dollar, and sterling. Ten-year sovereign debt yields have risen six basis points in Italy, 4 basis points in Spain, 2 basis points in Germany and the United States and a basis point in Great Britain. […] More
