Euroland PPI

Fitch’s Downgrade of the U.S. Debt Rating Pushes Long-Term Interest Rates Higher

August 3, 2023

In the wake of the announced downgrading of U.S. government debt and amid doubts about a coming recession, the 10-year Treasury yield rose nine basis points overnight and touched a high of 4.18%, which compares to 3.31% just over four months ago. 4.18% is the highest level since early last November. Other 10-year sovereign debt […] More

Price of Oil Back in the Spotlight

June 5, 2023

At the weekend’s meeting of OPEC plus oil ministers, Saudi Arabia announced a further production cut of one million barrels barrels per day, effective July 1, and WTI oil is trading 2.6% higher as a result although about $1.5 below today’s earlier peak. The dollar has opened the week on an up beat, with gains […] More

Mulling Service-Sector PMI Results and Waiting for the ECB Rate Hike

May 4, 2023

The dollar is modestly softer this Thursday, with drops of 0.2% against the yen and 0.1% versus the euro, Canadian dollar, and sterling. Ten-year sovereign debt yields have risen six basis points in Italy, 4 basis points in Spain, 2 basis points in Germany and the United States and a basis point in Great Britain. […] More

New Woes for Crypto… Service Sector Purchasing Manager Surveys Beat Expectations

March 3, 2023

The price of Bitcoin tokens plunged around 5% overnight. The dollar has declined 0.4% against the Swiss franc and yen, 0.3% versus sterling and the Australian dollar, but just 0.1% relative to the euro. It’s been an up day by and large for equities, with gains of 1.6% in Japan, 1.5% in India, 0.7% in […] More

U.S. Data Out Today Supports Fed Message that a Rate Cut in 2023 is Highly Doubtful

January 5, 2023

The 2022 dynamic of progressively tighter Fed policy supporting the dollar and depressing stocks and bonds remains intact. Minutes from the December FOMC meeting project higher interest rates persisting for some time and indicates that market valuations that imply an initial rate cut late in 2023 are premature. Although inflation cooled in recent months in […] More

Stronger-Than-Forecast U.S. & Canadian Labor Market Reports Reverse Market Momentum

December 2, 2022

North American labor markets again showed great resilience in the face of elevated inflation, tighter monetary policies, and mounting recessionary fears. Normally, that would be a good development for financial markets but not, like the present, when central bankers are trying to endow laborĀ  markets with some slack. U.S. share prices had marked time prior […] More

Big Market Turnaround: Equity Rebound and Lower Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields

October 4, 2022

Market expectations of how much further the federal funds target rate will be raised in the coming six months have been scaled back significantly. The catalyst has been evidence of softer U.S. demand, notably visible in yesterday’s ISM-compiled purchasing managers survey of manufacturers, which dropped 1.8 index points to a 28-month low of 50.9. Sub-indices […] More

Shortlived Equity Rally, More Inflationary Reports, and Day One of an Historic FOMC Meeting

May 3, 2022

Tech stocks had rallied in the final hour of Monday trading, but futures point to a likely drop of at least 0.5% at the start of Tuesday’s session. Share prices fell 0.9% in New Zealand, 0.6% in Taiwan, 0.4% in Australia, and are down 0.8% in the U.K., whose market had been closed for holiday […] More

Financial Markets Reflecting Concerns about Stagflation and Russian Military Aggression

April 6, 2022

Investors are bracing for aggressive monetary policy tightening in the United States and elsewhere to counter inflation that has climbed shockingly high, and business confidence in the one-year economic outlook has been scaled sharply backward. Ten-year sovereign debt yields jumped overnight by ten basis points in the United States and Great Britain, eight bps in […] More

Omicron, Central Banks, ISIS, Metaverse, OPEC, Russia, Inflation and January PMIs Vying for Market’s Attention

February 3, 2022

The top leader of ISIS and his family have died after a U.S.-led raid in Syria. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Russia remain very high. A total of 3,623 Covid-19 deaths yesterday in the United States were the greatest single-day total in a year. Omicron affected numerous service-sector and composite purchasing manager surveys reported […] More