Euroland PPI
Stronger Dollar
June 3, 2026
The dollar has benefitted from solid U.S. economic data and fresh doubts that peace and shipping traffic will be restored in the Middle East. The biggest dollar gains overnight involved 0.7-1.0% rises against the won, peso, kiwi and rupiah as well as lesser 0.2-0.5% advances relative to the euro, Swiss franc, Aussie dollar, loonie and […] More
A Buoyed Appetite for Risk in World Financial Markets
May 6, 2026
President Trump paused the confrontational program of militarily escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz in opposition to the Iranian-imposed blockade. He claimed progress toward a peace deal from revised details that Iran reportedly offered. The U.S. blockade will continue until a deal is finalized. Once trade is again going through the Strait without military […] More
Dollar and Tech Stocks Stagger
December 3, 2025
Around mid-day in NY, the dollar is showing losses from Tuesday closing levels of 0.9% against sterling, 0.6% relative to the kiwi, 0.4% vis-a-vis the yen and Aussie dollar, 0.3% versus the euro and Swiss franc, and 0.2% against Canada’s currency. The DXY weighted dollar measure is off 0.5%, and the euro is around its […] More
Trade Concerns Back in the Forefront
July 4, 2025
Having secured a single broad tax and spending bill, President Trump turned attention back to promised trade tariffs, and once again investors are learning of a sudden policy shift. Instead of a multitude of trade negotiations with complex commodity-specific and varied tariff charges, the president has elected instead to issue letters to each country detailing […] More
Trump Speech, Lutnick’s Scoop, and Across-the-Board Large Rise in Long-Term European Interest Rates
March 5, 2025
President Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress last night lasted 99 minutes (a multi-decade record) but was predictable for the most part. The element of policy surprise was leaked by Commerce Secretary Lutnick, who indicated that 25% tariffs imposed against Canada and Mexico could be scaled back soon, depending on the result of […] More
Republican Victory Lifts Dollar, U.S. Equities, and 10-Year Treasury Yield Sharply
November 6, 2024
Donald Trump’s declared electoral votes topped the magical 270 much more quickly than had been expected. Republicans also recaptured a senate majority and lead in House seat contest with 57 still undecided. Trump has a 3.5 percentage point majority in the popular vote. Jill Stern and RFK Jr. combined siphoned off 0.8 percentage points of […] More
Financial Market Risk Aversion Persisting
September 4, 2024
Equity markets slumped today by 4.5% in Taiwan, 4.2% in Japan, 3.2% in South Korea, 1.1% in Singapore and Hong Kong, and 0.7% in China. Major European stock markets are down around 0.5-1.0%, and U.S. futures point to a further decline, led by the tech sector. Nvdia, for instance, shows a pre-market slide of 2.1%. […] More
Holidays in the U.K., Japan and South Korea Tamp Down Market Volatility
May 6, 2024
Great Britain is observing its early spring bank holiday, while the Japanese and South Koreans are celebrating Children’s Day. Data releases have been comparatively few this Monday and limited to an additional batch of April purchasing manager surveys and Euroland producer prices. The dollar’s net weighted change compared to its closing before the weekend has […] More
Lessening Confidence that U.S., European, or Japanese Central Banks Will Ease Monetary Policy Soon or By Much
November 7, 2023
A big takeaway from the 1970s is that inflationary periods evolve in waves when monetary policy is sensitive to signs of weakening growth. That is why central bankers for the past year have been emphasizing a need not just for actual and expected price deceleration but strong confidence that inflation will return all the way […] More
Fitch’s Downgrade of the U.S. Debt Rating Pushes Long-Term Interest Rates Higher
August 3, 2023
In the wake of the announced downgrading of U.S. government debt and amid doubts about a coming recession, the 10-year Treasury yield rose nine basis points overnight and touched a high of 4.18%, which compares to 3.31% just over four months ago. 4.18% is the highest level since early last November. Other 10-year sovereign debt […] More
