Japanese machinery orders
Competing Market Forces
April 15, 2024
The dominant theme of the first half of April has been the retreat in hopes that a cycle of Fed interest rate cuts might commence as early as June. This shift is being driven by data pointing to stalled U.S. disinflation and stronger-than-assumed economic growth. Monday’s menu of U.S. data includes Stronger-than-expected retail sales that […] More
China Reopens After Week-Long Lunar New Year Celebration but Global Market Depth Still Not Back to Full Strength
February 19, 2024
The Shanghai Composite equity index rose 1.6% on its first post-holiday session, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed down 1.1% and Taiwan only edged 0.2% higher. In other Pacific Rim markets, share prices remained unchanged in Japan, fell 0.6% in New Zealand, and rose 0.4% in India, 0.2% in Taiwan and 0.1% in Singapore. European […] More
Awaiting U.S. March CPI Data and FOMC Minutes
April 12, 2023
Market attention today is fixated on these two U.S. economic releases. While a further deceleration is expected of total CPI inflation, which already has dropped from 9.1% last June to a 17-month low of 6.0% in February, a rise of core inflation (excluding food and energy) above February’s 14-month low of 5.5% also appears plausible. […] More
Market Reaction Muted to Missile Strike in Poland
November 16, 2022
A Russian-made missile struck a grain facility inside Poland, but it remains unclear who fired that round or from where such came. World leaders were fortunately already assembled in Bali, Indonesia, for the Group of Twenty annual summit, and an emergency meeting to forestall a direct Nato-Russian military conflict has so far prevented an outsized […] More
Inflation and Russian Invasion of Ukraine Casting Longer Shadows
March 17, 2022
Equities behaved in a widely diverse way overnight after the Fed enacted the first of many rate hikes. Share prices closed up by 7.0% in Hong Kong, 3.5% in Japan, 3.0% in Taiwan, 1.8% in India, 1.7% in China, and 1.1% in Australia. But stock markets so far are down this Thursday by 1.0% in […] More
China Reports Economic News; U.S. MLK Birthday Holiday Squelches Market Response
January 17, 2022
The U.S. observance of Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday points to light market trading volume this Monday and will limit any immediate reaction to the release of Chinese data covering fourth-quarter GDP and capacity usage, December retail sales, industrial production, property prices, fixed asset investment, unemployment or the first interest rate cut by the People’s […] More
Many Data Already Reported… Now Waiting for U.S. CPI and FOMC Minutes
October 13, 2021
The dollar slipped overnight by 0.3% against the Swiss franc and sterling, 0.2% versus the euro, peso and on a DXY weighted basis, and 0.1% relative to the Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan, and Turkish lira. Ten-year sovereign debt yields have dropped four basis points in Germany and five bps in the U.K. but only a […] More
Dollar Starting Week on a Rising Note, whereas Share Prices and Sovereign Debt Yields Move Lower
July 12, 2021
The dollar climbed 0.6% against the Mexican peso and New Zealand dollar, 0.5% versus the Australian dollar, 0.4% vis-a-vis the loonie, 0.3% relative to sterling an 0.1% against the yen but is steady versus the euro and yuan. Stocks in the Pacific Rim had closed up 2.3% in Japan, 0.9% in Taiwan, 0.8% in Australia […] More
Awaiting U.S. Import Prices, Jay Powell’s Speech and Fed’s Beige Book
April 14, 2021
The dollar fell 0.7% overnight against the New Zealand dollar and 0.5% relative to the Turkish lira and Australian dollar. But more senior dollar relationships such as the euro, yen, Swiss franc, sterling, and yuan, the dollar is barely changed and down just 0.1% in weighted terms. For the first time in years, markets have […] More
Tension on Several Fronts but Market Moves Muted Overnight
January 14, 2021
President Trump has been impeached by the House of Representatives for the second time in 13 months. The Senate trial will commence soon after he leaves office. New Covid cases and deaths remain highly elevated in many countries. The British daily death toll set a record yesterday. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said monetary stimulus […] More
