July 2026 in Figures
July 31, 2026
The net July changes in the table below for the most part understates the extreme financial market turbulence caused by the re-escalating Middle East war, resulting sharp rise in the price of oil, rollout of a new U.S. tariff plan, extreme fires ravaging Europe and other parts of the world, and new regime at the Federal Reserve that deletes forward guidance from the arsenal of its tools.
Higher medium- and long-term interest rates not limited to the United States were the most notable feature. In none of the countries shown did central bank interest rates change, however. Equity markets lost ground but not to an incredible extent. Among other central banks, however, there were at least four monetary tightenings and an equal number of easing moves. At central banks in Hungary, Russia, Kazakhstan and Israel, interest rates were reduced by 25basis points. Alternatively, rate increases were made of 50 basis points in Ukraine and 25 basis points each in New Zealand and South Korea. Also, officials at the Monetary Authority of Singapore increased the slope of their targeted Singapore dollar trading corridor, albeit by a lesser degree than had been done after their previous scheduled policy review.
The dollar lost ground in a measured way that nevertheless triggered a memory of mine from nearly a half century ago. I believe it was in 1977 or so when an assignment was handed down to a fellow economist at the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s balance of payments division to look deeper into the concurrent mix of dollar depreciation and high, accelerating U.S. inflation in search of evidence to either support or discredit the theory of a self-reinforcing cycle involving those two phenomena. If the current Federal Reserve is watching financial markets for a signal of whether monetary conditions are now appropriately restrictive to steer U.S. inflation back to the 2% target for the first time in five years, watching the dollar might be a good place to start. It was not mere coincidence that when the Volcker Fed jacked the interest rate higher during the early 1980’s, sustained and significant disinflation alongside a soaring recovery of the dollar was able to happen.
Prices for gold and crypto posted gains in July but not nearly as steep as the rise in the cost of oil.
| 10-Yr Yield | 6/30/26 | 7/31/26 | July Change |
| U.S. | 4.45% | 4.72% | +27 basis points |
| Germany | 2.86% | 3.20% | +34 |
| Japan | 2.66% | 2.77% | +11 |
| U.K. | 4.76% | 5.05% | +31 |
| Canada | 3.37% | 3.66% | 29 |
| Switzerland | 0.25% | 0.34% | +9 |
| CB Policy Rate | 6/30/26 | 7/31/26 | July Change |
| Fed funds target | 3.50/3.75% | 3.50/3.75% | 0 basis pts |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.25% | 2.25% | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | +1.00% | 1.00% | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0 |
| Swiss Policy Rate | 0.0% | 0.00% | 0 |
| FX | 6/30/26 | 7/31/26 | Change in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.1419 | 1.1529 | -1.0% |
| USD/JPY | 162.61 | 159.08 | -2.2% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8085 | 0.8085 | 0.0% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3226 | 1.3475 | -1.8% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6920 | 0.7035 | -1.6% |
| NZD/USD | 0.5677 | 0.5890 | -3.6% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4200 | 1.4017 | -1.3% |
| USD/CNY | 6.7990 | 6.7515 | -0.7% |
| Equities | 6/30/26 | 7/31/26 | July Change |
| S&P 500 | 7503 | 7510 | +0.1% |
| Nasdaq | 26214 | 25158 | -4.0% |
| Djia | 52319 | 52485 | +o.3% |
| Dax | 24996 | 25629 | +2.5% |
| Nikkei | 70062 | 64362 | -8.1% |
| Ftse | 10497 | 10868 | +3.5% |
| Canada TSE | 34833 | 35341 | +1.5% |
| Swiss SMI | 14194 | 14346 | +1.1% |
| Commodities | 6/30/26 | 7/31/26 | July Change |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 69.5 | 84.67 | +21.8% |
| Gold, $ per ounce
Bitcoin, $ |
4038.5
58,783 |
4107
62,904 |
+1.7%
+7.0% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2026. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
ShareThis
