Deeper Analysis
March and First Quarter 2026 in Figures
March 31, 2026
March was dominated by wild daily and intra-daily swings in financial vital signs as sentiment about the outcome and duration of the Middle Eastern war swung with each news flash, and investors tried to figure out the implications for the path of energy prices, general inflation, and the shape of Middle East oil facilities when […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Despite A Difficult March and Conflicting War News, Financial Markets Ending Month on Up-Note
March 31, 2026
Equity markets in the Pacific Rim, a region particularly dependent on Middle Eastern energy, plunged in March by 14.4% in Indonesia, 11.8% in South Korea, 11.5% in India, 11.2% in Japan, 10.4% in Taiwan, 7.8% in Australia, 6.5% in China and 6.0% in Hong Kong. Although the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most traffic, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Huge Shift Between Sunday Night and Monday Morn
March 30, 2026
(146) Financial news headlines on Sunday evening (when news feeds were reporting 4% plus plunges in Japanese and South Korean share price value, yen depreciation through 160/$ to 160.47, and further sharp jumps in 10-year sovereign debt yields) had pointed to a grim Monday session that hasn’t been the case. Instead as of 8 AM […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: March 28-April 3, 2026
March 27, 2026
Central Banks: Monetary stances will be reviewed in Israel, Colombia and Jamaica. Minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia policy review and a summary of the last Bank of Japan Board meeting get published. Goolsbee, Williams and Musalem of the Fed, Swiss National Bank President Sleijen, and ECB Governing Council member Cipollone speak publicly. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Extended Equity and Bond Market Damage from the Middle Eastern War
March 27, 2026
Ten-year sovereign debt yields are winding up the final full week of March near their highest levels of the 21st century in Japan and 15-18 year peaks in Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Just today has seen the yields advance by 11 basis points in the U.K. and Japan, 9 bps in Italy, 6 […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Mexico Resumes Interest Rate-Cutting Cycle
March 26, 2026
After holding it overnight interbank interest rate at 11.25% for the twelve months ending in March 2024, Bank of Mexico policymakers cut such by 125 basis points during the balance of 2024 and by a further 300 bps last year, reaching 7.0% after their final review in December. In February at their first meeting of […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Renewed Move Out of Riskier Assets on Mideast Conflict Fears
March 26, 2026
The Middle Eastern war may be about to become much fiercer. President Trump’s plea for Iran to accept a deal continues to be rebuffed, and the red-line demands of each side are miles apart. Meanwhile, Israel claims to have killed another top Iranian official, this time the naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, who has been overseeing […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Markets Cheered by News of 15-Point U.S. Peace Plan to End Middle East War
March 25, 2026
So far, Iran shows little sign of deescalating, and the all-import Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut to shipping traffic. Nevertheless, as of 08:15 EDT, the dollar had risen overnight by 0.5% against the Australian dollar, 0.3% relative to the kiwi, 0.2% versus the yen and Canadian currency, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the euro, Swiss franc, […] More
Larry's Blog
Imminent Risks
March 24, 2026
Justification for the joint U.S. and Israeli war against Iran and the choice of February 28th for the start of their attack, a stage that involved leadership replacement by assassination of high Iranian officials, rested in large part on the assertion that Iran, which has perennially sponsored terrorism in the region and wider world, had […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Middle Eastern War Chugs Onward and So Do Wide Day-to-Day Swings in Financial Markets
March 24, 2026
The Middle Eastern war continues to play out on many different planes. The actual conflict has been fierce and continues to suck in a widening range of countries in the region. Considerable property damage is occurring, some that may take extended time to repair. Claimed casualties are running heavily in favor of the U.S. and […] More
